Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Most sites have resumed VFR conditions with the exception of sites
in the east. As the front moves through there could be some
showers or isolated storms this afternoon. Behind the front winds
will shift out of the west and remain gusty. Winds will diminish
this evening and go light to calm overnight. There are indications
of some MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis restrictions but have not
included those in this TAF package at this time. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Morning/overnight convection has moved off to the eastbut
additional showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
portions of northeast Mississippi. Hi-res models continue to
indicate that this will occur from roughly now through about
18-21Z as a cold front moves through the region. This will combine
with the moist airmass in place to bring isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Temperatures
across the area remain in the 70s, along with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Behind the front, that looks to be moving
across LA and into MS, cooler and drier air is in place. It
remains possible that as the front continues to move through and
combine with this moist airmass, a few storms could become strong
to severe as there remains steep lapse rates, good shear and
decent instability especially across the southeast. This is where
the marginal and slight risks remain. Going forecast handles this
well. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight...the severe weather and flash flood event
continues early this morning as a convective system pushes through
central/eastern MS. This initial activity will affect e/se
portions of the forecast area until around daybreak...with
continued threat for all modes of severe weather and flash
flooding. After a break in the threats this morning in the wake of
the MCS, a second threat for severe storms is expected to
redevelop by afternoon ahead of the cold front as steep lapse
rates remain juxtaposed over a very moist boundary layer. There
may be some capping to contend with, but sufficient
heating/destabilization is anticipated for discrete storms to
develop, and shear profiles support these becoming supercells
capable of large hail/tornadoes. As it stand, it appears the
greatest threat will be just east of the ArkLaMiss. Otherwise,
expect winds to be gusty from the west as conditions dry following
the cold frontal passage later this afternoon. Then expect a quiet
overnight.

Friday through next Wednesday night...fast flow remains over the
forecast area for the long term portion of the forecast with a
couple of more shortwave troughs potentially affecting the
ArkLaMiss region. The first trough will be relatively quick on the
heels of the current one as it moves in for Friday night. Because
it is moving in so fast, and because the greater ascent will be
just to our north, the threat for thunderstorms will be
questionable, especially south of the Highway 82 corridor.
However, if storms do develop, steep lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will support supercells with mainly a hail threat. For
now, SPC is targeting NW MS with a marginal risk for severe
storms, mainly north of the forecast area.

After a few days of dry weather going from the weekend into early
next week, we'll likely see a more significant shortwave trough
approach for roughly the Tuesday night through Wednesday time
frame. Given the weather pattern change toward more of a NW flow
scenario by this time, there is a good bit of uncertainty
regarding the amplitude and location of this wave at this longer
time range - it is something to monitor for potential impacts as
get closer in time. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  56  82  60 /  36   0   0  24
Meridian      77  55  82  60 /  47   1   0  15
Vicksburg     77  57  82  60 /  12   0   0  26
Hattiesburg   81  56  84  62 /  51   1   0   5
Natchez       77  56  82  60 /  17   0   0   9
Greenville    73  56  79  59 /  11   0   4  63
Greenwood     73  54  79  60 /  27   1   2  62

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
518 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-241030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
518 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ029-030-032-033-037-038-043-044-048>050-053-054-059>062-241030-
Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Madison MS-Leake-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-
518 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated storms may redevelop later today ahead of an approaching
cold front, especially as we go from late morning into the early
afternoon. These storms could be severe and capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado couldn't be ruled
out as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ031-039-045-046-051-052-055>058-063>066-072>074-241030-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-
Lamar-Forrest-
518 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

Isolated storms may redevelop later today ahead of an approaching
cold front, especially as we go from late morning into the early
afternoon. These storms could be severe and capable of producing
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BURNS                   32.13N 89.55W
04/23/2020                   SMITH              MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MS 481 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT MS 902
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINNSBORO               32.16N 91.72W
04/22/2020                   FRANKLIN           LA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF TREES DOWN IN
            WINNSBORO. SMALL HAIL WAS ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

MSZ052-057-058-232100-
Lauderdale MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JASPER...NORTHERN
CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Orange, or 15 miles west of Quitman, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Orange around 310 PM CDT.
  Stonewall around 325 PM CDT.
  Savoy around 330 PM CDT.
  Sable and Middleton around 335 PM CDT.
  Zero around 340 PM CDT.
  Increase around 345 PM CDT.
  Alamucha and Toomsuba around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8843 3194 8899 3209 8911 3223 8895
      3223 8891 3226 8891 3255 8857 3238 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 236DEG 39KT 3207 8898

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

MSZ065-066-232115-
Jones MS-Covington MS-
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND JONES
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 313 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sanford, or 9 miles southeast of Collins, moving east at 45
mph. Another strong storm was located near Eastabuchie, also moving
east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Laurel, Ellisville, Mill Creek, Sanford, Tuckers Crossing,
Eastabuchie, Moselle, Ovett and Seminary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8959 3157 8963 3176 8894 3144 8895
      3143 8958
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 253DEG 41KT 3151 8950

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             CHASE                   32.10N 91.71W
04/23/2020  E1.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           LA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF LARGE HAIL IN THE
            CHASE COMMUNITY.

&&

TW