Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
122 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

Poor aviation weather continues for the remainder of night as
a considerable amount of TSRA move east across the ArkLaMiss
region. A strong pressure gradient across the area is also
resulting in strong SSE wind gusts for now, but expect winds to
gradually veer to a more southwesterly to westerly direction as
the system departs to the east later today into tonight, with wind
relaxing Thursday night. Ceilings will be quite variable and
somewhat tied to the precip areas, but generally speaking, expect
the IFR ceilings to be most prevalent during the early morning
hours before breaking up quickly during the mid/late morning as
stronger mixing ahead of the cold front commences. /EC

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday...

Severe weather is still expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to overspread
across the region this evening. This comes as a shortwave trough
swings across the region and a deepening surface low that tracks
from Oklahoma to ARK/MO. As this occurs, the warm front that is
located across the southwest part of the forecast area will lift
north. This will bring moisture into the forecast area through the
evening into tonight. Initially, some of these storms will be
elevated in advance of the warm front with hail being the main
concern. As the evening progresses, all hazards will be possible
as a combination of discrete cells and a QLCS should move into the
western portions of the CWA later tonight. Strong shear,
sufficient instability will be in place across the area as well as
300 to 500 m2/s2 helicity. This will promote tornado potential
including the possibility for a strong tornado to occur. After
around midnight or so, more of a QLCS should develop and move east
through daybreak. We did locally expand the enhanced risk for
storms across some portion of the central part of the CWA but the
further south you go, there is some capping that may limit
storms/intensity though severe weather remains possible there.

On top of severe potential, there remains a decent flooding risk.
As grounds are saturated from recent rainfall, PW values increase
to around 1.7-2 inches and several rounds of storms could move
over the same location, the flash flood watch has been expanded
across the area. Two to four inches of rain are possible in these
locations with locally higher amounts possible.

As if that wasn't enough, there remains some potential for a wake
low to develop within the stratiform rain area behind the area of
storms. This will bring gusty winds sustained 20-25 mph and gusts
to near 40 mph.

The front will move through the region on Thursday. Some hi-res
models indicate that there could be additional redevelopment in
the afternoon as this occurs. Al storm activity should be out of
the forecast area by late tomorrow afternoon. /28/

Friday through Next Week...

Friday will begin with some pretty good weather with temperatures
climbing into the lower 80s across the entire region. By Friday
evening, southerly flow will begin to increase as a disturbance
associated with a shortwave trough tracks its way across the MS
Valley. Different global models agree in regards to timing(though we
are a couple days away and timing could change)bringing in
showers/storms by late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
However, a shower or 2 can't be ruled out early Friday evening. Even
though the atmosphere doesn't support a very moist airmass Friday,
the mesoscale dynamics are there. With an approaching cold front,
possible 30-40kts of midlevel shear, dewpoints in the 60s, combined
with instability(MUCAPE 800-1500J/kg), storms have the potential to
become strong to severe especially east of I-55. A 'Marginal' risk
will be displayed in the HWO. The main risk will be damaging winds
and hail.

By Saturday early morning, showers and a possible storm will
continue to linger but by late morning, going into the afternoon
hours, everything should be east of the ArkLaMiss. The rest of the
weekend will be dry and quiet conditions will prevail through the
beginning half of the next working week. High temperatures will
range from the mid to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday and start to
warm into the 80s next week./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  57  83  61 /  33   1   0  27
Meridian      82  56  83  60 /  75   4   0  18
Vicksburg     79  57  83  60 /  14   0   1  33
Hattiesburg   82  57  85  63 /  64   5   0   9
Natchez       81  57  83  60 /  18   0   0  18
Greenville    75  57  78  59 /  16   1   6  66
Greenwood     75  55  79  60 /  45   2   3  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>059.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ034-035-040>043-047>059-
232245-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible
tonight. Some tornadoes could be strong. Some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme
southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Mississippi,
portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central
Mississippi, portions of west central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi on Friday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
night and tonight through Thursday.

MSZ018-019-025>033-036>039-044>046-232245-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible tonight into
tomorrow. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme
southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Mississippi,
portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central
Mississippi, portions of west central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi on Friday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
night and tonight through Thursday.

LAZ026-MSZ060>066-232245-
Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible
tonight. Some tornadoes could be strong. Some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday.

MSZ072>074-232245-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible tonight into
tomorrow. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ROBINHOOD           32.19N 89.97W
04/23/2020                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON POWER LINES ON JOY HEARD ST.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     TORNADO          1 NNE MONTEREY          32.19N 90.08W
04/23/2020                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE MONTEREY
            AREA. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DL