Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
732 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of Central MS this
evening. Short break in HBG/PIB for now, with further convection
back to the west. Lowering ceilings and gusty winds out of the
south/southeast continue as a surface low deepens over AR tonight.
Much of the forecast will be dominated by intermittent showers and
thunderstorms through the night. Eventual clearing from west to
east later tomorrow morning, and winds coming around to more
westerly behind the cold front by midday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday...

Severe weather is still expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to overspread
across the region this evening. This comes as a shortwave trough
swings across the region and a deepening surface low that tracks
from Oklahoma to ARK/MO. As this occurs, the warm front that is
located across the southwest part of the forecast area will lift
north. This will bring moisture into the forecast area through the
evening into tonight. Initially, some of these storms will be
elevated in advance of the warm front with hail being the main
concern. As the evening progresses, all hazards will be possible
as a combination of discrete cells and a QLCS should move into the
western portions of the CWA later tonight. Strong shear,
sufficient instability will be in place across the area as well as
300 to 500 m2/s2 helicity. This will promote tornado potential
including the possibility for a strong tornado to occur. After
around midnight or so, more of a QLCS should develop and move east
through daybreak. We did locally expand the enhanced risk for
storms across some portion of the central part of the CWA but the
further south you go, there is some capping that may limit
storms/intensity though severe weather remains possible there.

On top of severe potential, there remains a decent flooding risk.
As grounds are saturated from recent rainfall, PW values increase
to around 1.7-2 inches and several rounds of storms could move
over the same location, the flash flood watch has been expanded
across the area. Two to four inches of rain are possible in these
locations with locally higher amounts possible.

As if that wasn't enough, there remains some potential for a wake
low to develop within the stratiform rain area behind the area of
storms. This will bring gusty winds sustained 20-25 mph and gusts
to near 40 mph.

The front will move through the region on Thursday. Some hi-res
models indicate that there could be additional redevelopment in
the afternoon as this occurs. Al storm activity should be out of
the forecast area by late tomorrow afternoon. /28/

Friday through Next Week...

Friday will begin with some pretty good weather with temperatures
climbing into the lower 80s across the entire region. By Friday
evening, southerly flow will begin to increase as a disturbance
associated with a shortwave trough tracks its way across the MS
Valley. Different global models agree in regards to timing(though we
are a couple days away and timing could change)bringing in
showers/storms by late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
However, a shower or 2 can't be ruled out early Friday evening. Even
though the atmosphere doesn't support a very moist airmass Friday,
the mesoscale dynamics are there. With an approaching cold front,
possible 30-40kts of midlevel shear, dewpoints in the 60s, combined
with instability(MUCAPE 800-1500J/kg), storms have the potential to
become strong to severe especially east of I-55. A 'Marginal' risk
will be displayed in the HWO. The main risk will be damaging winds
and hail.

By Saturday early morning, showers and a possible storm will
continue to linger but by late morning, going into the afternoon
hours, everything should be east of the ArkLaMiss. The rest of the
weekend will be dry and quiet conditions will prevail through the
beginning half of the next working week. High temperatures will
range from the mid to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday and start to
warm into the 80s next week./JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  80  57  83 /  99  33   1   0
Meridian      64  82  56  83 /  93  75   4   0
Vicksburg     66  79  57  83 /  84  14   0   1
Hattiesburg   66  82  57  85 /  80  64   5   0
Natchez       66  80  57  83 /  81  18   0   0
Greenville    63  74  57  78 /  97  16   1   6
Greenwood     62  75  55  79 /  99  45   2   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>059.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ034-035-040>043-047>059-
232245-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible
tonight. Some tornadoes could be strong. Some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme
southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Mississippi,
portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central
Mississippi, portions of west central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi on Friday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
night and tonight through Thursday.

MSZ018-019-025>033-036>039-044>046-232245-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible tonight into
tomorrow. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme
southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Mississippi,
portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central
Mississippi, portions of west central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi on Friday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
night and tonight through Thursday.

LAZ026-MSZ060>066-232245-
Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible
tonight. Some tornadoes could be strong. Some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday.

MSZ072>074-232245-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
531 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Thursday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible tonight into
tomorrow. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60
mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
734 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEER PARK               31.41N 91.58W
04/22/2020                   CONCORDIA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN, INCLUDING
            1 ON HIGHWAY 15 NEAR DEER PARK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILBERT                 32.05N 91.66W
04/22/2020                   FRANKLIN           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED ON POWER LINES IN GILBERT.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
832 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT NECESSITY          32.05N 91.82W
04/22/2020                   FRANKLIN           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED IN WESTERN FRANKLIN PARISH.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N PINE RIDGE          31.69N 91.34W
04/22/2020                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED ALONG MARTIN LUTHER KING RD
            NEAR ANNAS BOTTOM RD.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LORMAN                  31.82N 91.05W
04/22/2020                   JEFFERSON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED IN JEFFERSON COUNTY.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
922 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

MSZ053-059-230300-
Jefferson MS-Claiborne MS-
922 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 921 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Alcorn, or 20 miles northeast of Natchez, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alcorn, Port Gibson, Peyton, Red Lick, Church Hill, Hermanville,
Pattison, Lorman, Blue Hill and Mcbride.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 9130 3182 9129 3181 9126 3183 9124
      3185 9127 3186 9127 3187 9124 3192 9118
      3201 9072 3172 9074 3171 9130 3175 9131
      3175 9127 3176 9126 3177 9128 3176 9131
      3185 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 261DEG 41KT 3182 9123

DL