River Flood Warning 47, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Wednesday night:
With a front remaining stalled over the region tonight, the
potential for showers and isolated storms traversing the region
continues through at least the early evening hours. The potential
for heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding will continue as
well, as this rainfall is expected to fall on already very
saturated soils. Therefore, a flash flood watch will remain in
effect for a large portion of the CWA through midnight. With more
scattered convection lifting northeast across locations where a
widespread 2-4 inches, and locally higher amounts, of rain fell
during the Tuesday morning and afternoon periods where numerous
reports of flooding occurred, any additional rainfall will only
exacerbate the ongoing flooding situation. An additional 1-2
inches of rainfall can't be ruled out, with locally higher amounts
also possible, as scattered convection could train over these
previously affected locations.

Activity is expected to gradually dissipate through the overnight
hours, with scattered rain chances shifting mainly back to the north
in the vicinity of the boundary along the Highway 82 corridor after
midnight. At a minimum, patchy fog will be possible across central,
but especially southern, portions of the CWA early Wednesday
morning. This will need to be monitored during the overnight hours
for the potential of at least patchy dense fog developing across a
portion of the CWA. Mild conditions will persist, as lows Wednesday
morning only fall into the low and middle 60s.

A lull in the activity is currently expected through a good portion
of the daytime period on Wednesday.  Warm muggy conditions will
persist as highs climb into the low and middle 70s.  By mid to late
afternoon, rain chances will begin increase as the cold front
finally begins pushing south through the region.  These chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday
night as the front makes its way south through the region.  Cooler
drier air will steadily advect south into the forecast area in the
front's wake through early Thursday morning. /19/

Thursday through Monday:
A weak frontal boundary will be pushing through the area on
Thursday. Rain chances will be diminishing as the boundary sinks
southward though so that by the afternoon only isolated rain showers
will exist in southern MS. A slight cooldown will move in in the
wake of the frontal passage and overnight lows on Thursday will drop
into the 40s and 50s.

Friday-Saturday: As the mid-level ridge remains parked over the east-
central Gulf of Mexico, expect any brief reprieve in rain chances to
be short lived as warm, moist return flow kicks up again into
Friday. Moisture advection & PWs will be somewhat lower but will
gradually increase Friday afternoon, especially around and after
midnight Saturday. With this increase in southerly flow,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and 70s on
Saturday. This will all be in advance of a deep synoptic trough with
a strong surface low pressure system and associated cold front.
Expect another round of storms to move in early Saturday and quickly
exit the area Saturday afternoon. There is potential for some
steeper lapse rates & increased westerly flow so some stronger
organized convection isn't out of the question, but with meager
instability this threat remains low.

Sunday-Monday: Expect a drastic change in our pattern, with the
recent warm & wet conditions out the door & much more winter norms
into next week. Synoptic ridging will begin to build over the
Intermountain West, while large troughing will build in over areas
east of the Rockies. Strong polar surface high pressure of ~1045-
1050mb will build southeast out of Canada on Sunday and into the
northern Plains on Monday. This will lead to much colder air
advecting into most of the eastern half of the nation, including the
ArkLaMiss.

Due to the much drier air (i.e. PWs less than a quarter-
half inch), expect any rain chances to clear out just after midnight
Sunday. There will also be a drastic difference in thermal profiles
& ambient air temperatures in the wake. Lows Sunday morning will be
closer to normal in the mid-upper 30s, while highs will be nearly 20
degrees cooler and in the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday. Temps will be
even cooler Sunday night though with lows closer to freezing & highs
generally in the 40s on Monday. This cold pattern will linger well
into next week with below normal warmth across the board. Will have
to watch any shortwave trough energy & moisture advection over top
any persistent cold air over our southwest into early next week.
/DC/10/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to IFR, and occasionally LIFR, flight categories will persist
at most TAF sites through much of the forecast period. This is as
a result of ongoing moderate to heavy convection across a large
portion of the area. With rain chances and low ceilings persisting
overnight into Wednesday morning, degraded flight categories will
likewise continue. With a front stalled over the area, winds
behind the front will be from the northwest between 5-8 knots, and
from the south ahead of it between 3-5 knots. Fog, some perhaps of
the dense variety, could again be possible over mainly Southeast
Mississippi after midnight and into early Wednesday morning. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  75  58  63 /  62  26  49  29
Meridian      65  76  57  65 /  65  23  43  25
Vicksburg     65  74  56  61 /  61  38  55  31
Hattiesburg   66  77  62  70 /  56  12  18  26
Natchez       65  75  60  65 /  64  20  38  29
Greenville    60  71  49  53 /  46  63  57  22
Greenwood     63  72  50  57 /  50  61  64  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MSZ030>033-
     035>053.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...None.

&&

10/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ024-026-MSZ018-019-025>029-034-054>066-151200-
Ashley-Chicot-Catahoula-Concordia-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Washington-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
233 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Localized flash flooding remains possible through this evening,
particularly in low lying and urban areas, as an additional one
inch of rain is possible atop already saturated soils. Minor
river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ030>033-035>053-151200-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-
233 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Flash flooding is expected through this evening, with some roads
potentially flooded or closed, and some structures potentially
threatened with inundation.  An additional one to two inches of
rain is expected this evening, with locally higher amounts
possible, atop already very saturated soils. Minor to moderate
river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ072>074-151200-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
233 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N WALLACE RIDGE       31.68N 91.83W
01/14/2020                   CATAHOULA          LA   PUBLIC

            HIGH FLOOD WATER REPORTED NEAR BLOCK HIGH
            SCHOOL IN JONESVILLE AND BROOKS RD.

&&

TB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE RICHLAND          32.20N 90.15W
01/14/2020                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS WERE CLOSED IN RICHLAND DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

CE

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