Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2020

Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Jackson, MS

January 14, 2020Issaquena County, Sharkey County, Mississippi; East Carroll Parish, Louisiana

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Jan 14, 2020, 3:44 AM CST for Issaquena County, Sharkey County, Mississippi; East Carroll Parish, Louisiana. It was in force for 4 hr. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 14, 2020, 3:44 AM CST (09:44 UTC)
Expired
Jan 14, 2020, 7:45 AM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties East Carroll Parish, LA, Issaquena County, MS, Sharkey County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 14, 6:00 AM CSTFLASH FLOODRolling Fork, MSWATER SURROUNDED SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN ROLLING FORK WITH SEVERAL ROADS UNDERWATER.
Jan 14, 6:05 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Se Lake Providence, LA2ND ST IS FLOODED IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS.
Jan 14, 6:10 AM CSTFLASH FLOODRolling Fork, MSMULTIPLE FLOODED ROADS IN ROLLING FORK WITH WATER NEARING SOME BUILDINGS. SIDNEY ALEXANDER ST IS COMPLETELY FLOODED.
Jan 14, 6:55 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Sse Lake Providence, LAWATER ENTERED A HOME ON BROWN ST.
Jan 14, 6:55 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD7 Wnw Transylvania, LAFLOODING WAS REPORTED ON A FEW ROADS IN EAST CARROLL PARISH, INCLUDING ON LA HIGHWAY 134.
Jan 14, 7:15 AM CSTFLASH FLOODAnguilla, MSWATER SURROUNDED A HOME IN ANGUILLA.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 136 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-01-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-01-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 299 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
792 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
299 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
316 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

421 
WGUS54 KJAN 140944
FFWJAN
LAC035-MSC055-125-141345-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0012.200114T0944Z-200114T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
344 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Carroll Parish in northeastern Louisiana...
  Northwestern Issaquena County in west central Mississippi...
  Sharkey County in west central Mississippi...

* Until 745 AM CST.

* At 343 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Lake Providence, Rolling Fork, Transylvania, Anguilla, Grace,
  Panther Burn, Shelburn, Monticello, Nitta Yuma, Gassoway, Onward,
  Delta City, Alsatia, Millikin, Fitler, Mayersville and Cary.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to three inches are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 9143 3258 9145 3261 9139 3269 9140
      3269 9138 3275 9134 3284 9135 3288 9131
      3301 9126 3301 9092 3310 9091 3309 9066
      3292 9066 3284 9076 3281 9074 3281 9069
      3279 9072 3276 9069 3254 9140 3254 9146

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DL
2 follow-up statements
824 
WGUS74 KJAN 141117
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
517 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

LAC035-MSC055-125-141345-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200114T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
East Carroll LA-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
517 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR
EAST CARROLL PARISH...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES...

At 516 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Up to four inches of rain have fallen. 
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lake Providence, Rolling Fork, Transylvania, Anguilla, Grace, Panther
Burn, Shelburn, Monticello, Nitta Yuma, Gassoway, Onward, Delta City,
Alsatia, Millikin, Fitler, Mayersville and Cary.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 9143 3258 9145 3261 9139 3269 9140
      3269 9138 3275 9134 3284 9135 3288 9131
      3301 9126 3301 9092 3310 9091 3309 9066
      3292 9066 3284 9076 3281 9074 3281 9069
      3279 9072 3276 9069 3254 9140 3254 9146

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

DC
366 
WGUS74 KJAN 141308
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
708 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

LAC035-MSC055-125-141345-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200114T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
East Carroll LA-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
708 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR
EAST CARROLL PARISH...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES...

At 703 AM CST, law enforcement reported heavy rain falling in 
Rolling Fork and Lake Providence, where water has flooded some roads 
and gotten near some buildings in Rolling Fork. Up to five inches of 
rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lake Providence, Rolling Fork, Transylvania, Anguilla, Grace, Panther
Burn, Shelburn, Monticello, Nitta Yuma, Gassoway, Onward, Delta City,
Alsatia, Millikin, Fitler, Mayersville and Cary.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 9143 3258 9145 3261 9139 3269 9140
      3269 9138 3275 9134 3284 9135 3288 9131
      3301 9126 3301 9092 3310 9091 3309 9066
      3292 9066 3284 9076 3281 9074 3281 9069
      3279 9072 3276 9069 3254 9140 3254 9146

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

DC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jan 14, 12:19 AM CST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 14, 12:19 AM CST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1219 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
LIFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area due to a
combination of low clouds, fog, and areas of SHRA/TSRA. These
conditions will persist through mid-morning, with some improvement
expected during the day across parts of south and east MS. Ceiling
and visibility conditions in those areas are expected to
deteriorate again this evening into tonight. Elsewhere, LIFR and
IFR conditions may continue throughout the entire TAF period,
especially across parts of North LA, Southeast AR, and Northwest
MS. Numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected to spread across areas mainly
along and north of I-20 through the early part of the day, with
coverage of precipitation decreasing after sunset. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening analyses reveal an extremely moist airmass continuing to
be transported into the ArkLaMiss region with a record daily
precipitable water value of 1.6 inches observed on the 00z JAN
raob. As previously described, we expect subtle shortwave energy
to tap into this moist and convectively unstable airmass to
initiate the next round of showers/storms over the Delta/NC MS
area. Am a bit more concerned about the heavy rainfall and flash
flooding potential for the late night/early morning hours after
seeing trends in the 00z CAM guidance.

The 00z HREF suggests training convective elements could focus a
more significant heavy rain threat extending from NE LA into west
central MS, and this seems plausible given latest analyses showing
low level moisture transport vectors pointing more into that area
now. Depending on how things evolve, we may need to up the HWO
threat to elevated over a small portion of the forecast area.
After the flooding that occurred earlier today in SE MS, it is
apparent that models will struggle to capture these localized
heavy rainfall events until the very short term.

As far as the severe hail threat goes, not much has changed with
mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 deg c/km lending to MU CAPE of
1000+ j/kg in support of hail producing storms later tonight into
Tuesday over NW portions of the area, so plan no changes at this
point to the current marginal risk area. The dense fog situation
is once again quite uncertain and can only maintain the current
threat graphics and dense fog advisory at this point. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Short term forecast focus will be on locally heavy
rainfall and the potential for a few severe storms with the
possibility of producing hail, mainly around quarter size.
Additionally, dense fog looks likely across a good portion of the
S/SE part of the forecast area.

For the convective potential, warm front is still down in S LA and
there's a few layers to it now. The part that defines the true
marine layer is along the LA coast and just inland over far SE LA.
The next layer of the warm frontal feature is closer to Hwy 84. This
will all steadily lift northward this evening with things stalling
over the central part of the forecast area by early Tue. Increasing
WAA has the current activity going over the S half and this should
lift NE through the remainder of the afternoon and begin lifting out
of the NE/E by early evening. There will likely be a period when
most of the area is fairly quiet. While this occurs, steep lapse
rates will spread into our W/NW forecast area. This is identified
by vertical totals of 27-29C and MUcape ranging from 1000-1500 j/kg.
There will be a small cap in place, but as the low level flow veers
toward midnight, this looks to promote better theta e convergence
and also gets some upper level support as the northern portions of
the forecast area get brushed by the southern fringes of a wave
moving through the Midwest. This should allow deep elevated
convection to break out. There appears to be a few hour window
that's most favorable to support hail to around quarter size. This
will be while activity is more Isolated/Scattered in nature. As
activity becomes more numerous, updraft competition for the
available energy will likely diminish the potential for the
strongest storms to produce severe hail. Going graphics cover this
well, will only tweak the timing orientation to the latest
thinking. Additionally, we will hold onto the Marginal risk into
Tue and that could support some gusty winds if activity can make
it enough east to where some increasing surface instability may
develop.

Concerning flooding potential. This is not a high confidence
situation, but due to recent heavy rainfall and saturated
conditions, any extra rainfall in the 2-3 inch range could cause
some flash flooding. Also, we often see these situations where we
have strong convection occurring N of a warm front and moving
generally eastward tend to produce a corridor or two of localized
heavy rainfall as storms move over the same locations. Due to this,
we have the limited threat out. While it currently cover the entire
area, we will make an update in the 5-7pm timeframe to remove the SE
as precip activity will shift more to the NW/N. Look for that update
a bit later.

Lastly, there's quite a bit of marine fog over SE LA and coastal MS.
All indications support this spreading inland as advection fog. How
far inland will be tough to pinpoint, but for now, indications are
much of MS south of I-20 should see some dense fog with the best
likelihood over the Pine Belt and along the Hwy 84 corridor. Due to
this, a Dense Fog Adv is in effect and updated graphics will be out
to illustrate this. /CME/

Wednesday through Sunday:

An upper ridge will back build into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday
and help to push the wavering boundary a little further north. At
this point, the convection looks to lose its organization and rain
chances decrease a bit. Warm air advection will continue to pump
above normal temps and moisture into the region though so that
isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible. By
Thursday, an upper shortwave moving through the Midwest will push
the front back into our area, bringing another round of rainfall to
the area. Surface high pressure will skirt into the region behind
the front and bring some drier air along with it. This drier air
will be short-lived though as surface flow rotates back out of the
south and moist air resumes its flow into the area by Friday.

On Friday, a large trough will be developing over the Plains and
swinging eastward. A strong cold front will then push into our CWA
on Saturday, accompanied by yet another round of rain and storms.
With very limited instability and being at the southern end of the
best forcing, the majority of our area will only see isolated storms
with this frontal passage. Behind the front, a much cooler and drier
air mass will move into our region. Temperatures will fall back down
to their seasonable norms with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s
for the weekend.
/10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  72  64  76 /  86  47  33  49
Meridian      63  73  63  76 /  73  45  35  45
Vicksburg     61  71  64  75 /  87  46  38  57
Hattiesburg   62  74  63  77 /  37  21  24  19
Natchez       64  72  64  75 /  77  37  29  40
Greenville    53  66  62  71 /  79  51  58  62
Greenwood     55  68  62  73 /  90  58  57  65

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ054>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/EC/CME/10
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 13, 2:55 PM CST, 12 hours 49 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-142100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

This afternoon through tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible later tonight into part of Tuesday. Some thunderstorms
could produce hail to around quarter size. Any stronger storms on
Tuesday may produce gusty winds as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon through tuesday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Tuesday.

LAZ023>026-MSZ038-039-043>053-142100-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

This afternoon through tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible later tonight into part of Tuesday. Some thunderstorms
could produce hail to around quarter size. Any stronger storms on
Tuesday may produce gusty winds as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon through tuesday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight through tuesday, patchy dense fog is possible after
midnight with visibilities potentially down to less than a mile
with some areas of a quarter of a mile.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Tuesday.

MSZ059-142100-
Jefferson-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FOG
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

This afternoon through tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible later tonight into part of Tuesday. Some thunderstorms
could produce hail to around quarter size. Any stronger storms on
Tuesday may produce gusty winds as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon through tuesday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight through tuesday, areas of dense fog with visibilities a
quarter mile or less are likely. Timing will be late this evening
into mid morning Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Tuesday.

MSZ058-061>066-072>074-142100-
Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

FOG
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

Through the remainder of this afternoon, localized flash flooding
is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight through tuesday, areas of dense fog with visibilities a
quarter mile or less are likely. Timing will be late this evening
into mid morning Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

MSZ060-142100-
Adams-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

FOG
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

This afternoon through tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible later tonight into part of Tuesday. Some thunderstorms
could produce hail to around quarter size. Any stronger storms on
Tuesday may produce gusty winds as well.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Through the remainder of this afternoon, localized flash flooding
is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight through tuesday, areas of dense fog with visibilities a
quarter mile or less are likely. Timing will be late this evening
into mid morning Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Tuesday.

MSZ054>057-142100-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

FOG
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday

This afternoon through tuesday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. With a
couple rounds of rain through tonight and early Tuesday, 1 to
3 inches of rain is possible is localized areas. This falling on
saturated soils may result in some flash flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight through tuesday, areas of dense fog with visibilities a
quarter mile or less are likely. Timing will be late this evening
into mid morning Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

36

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*FOG*
Significant...Widespread dense fog with visibilities a quarter
 mile or less are likely.
Elevated...Areas of dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile
 or less are likely.
Limited...Patchy dense fog is possible with visibilities
 potentially down to a quarter of a mile.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 13, 10:53 PM CST, 4 hours 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1053 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

LAZ023>025-140530-
Tensas LA-Catahoula LA-Franklin LA-
1053 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TENSAS...NORTHERN CATAHOULA AND
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN PARISHES UNTIL 1130 PM CST...

At 1052 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Sherwood, or 20 miles southeast of Columbia, moving east at 40
mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wisner around 1120 PM CST.
  Cooter Point and Helena around 1130 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Harrisonburg, Gilbert
and Sicily Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9201 3193 9191 3197 9190 3197 9189
      3204 9190 3208 9193 3209 9187 3211 9187
      3221 9131 3199 9119 3186 9131 3185 9134
      3180 9136 3176 9139 3174 9158 3176 9160
      3174 9162 3174 9168 3173 9170 3170 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 256DEG 34KT 3184 9191

EC
Special weather statement, Jan 14, 12:58 AM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1258 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

LAZ007>009-015-140800-
Morehouse LA-Richland LA-East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-
1258 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MOREHOUSE...
SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN
WEST CARROLL PARISHES THROUGH 200 AM CST...

At 1257 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Rayville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rayville, Warden, Goodwill, Monticello, Darnell, Epps, Forest,
Pioneer and Oak Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9140 3256 9124 3254 9139 3254 9146
      3252 9147 3247 9179 3261 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 246DEG 27KT 3255 9173

DL
Special weather statement, Jan 14, 1:09 AM CST, 2 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
109 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

MSZ018-019-140815-
Sunflower MS-Bolivar MS-
109 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SUNFLOWER AND BOLIVAR
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM CST...

At 108 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along the Mississippi River, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Ruleville, Shelby, Drew, Rosedale, Parchman, Scott, Mound
Bayou, Renova, Boyle, Benoit, Gunnison, Jersey Point, Deeson, Lamont,
Merigold, Duncan, Beulah, Pace and Alligator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 9066 3399 9066 3399 9053 3383 9045
      3371 9045 3353 9108 3355 9123 3360 9113
      3370 9122 3368 9103 3378 9114 3378 9099
      3385 9107 3393 9101 3397 9109 3396 9097
      3409 9087 3411 9094 3412 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 246DEG 31KT 3382 9099

DL
Special weather statement, Jan 14, 1:10 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
110 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

MSZ049-054-055-140815-
Copiah MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
110 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL RANKIN...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND NORTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM
CST...

At 110 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Gallman, or near Crystal Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Mendenhall, Pinola, Union, Gallman,
Cato, Hopewell, Harrisville, Piney Woods, D'Lo, Georgetown and
Braxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 9040 3200 9045 3212 8985 3189 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 256DEG 30KT 3193 9034

DL
Special weather statement, Jan 14, 1:43 AM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
143 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

LAZ009-MSZ040-041-140845-
East Carroll LA-Sharkey MS-Issaquena MS-
143 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL EAST CARROLL PARISH...
NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND SHARKEY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CST...

At 143 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Transylvania, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Providence, Rolling Fork, Transylvania, Anguilla, Fitler,
Onward, Mayersville and Cary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 9134 3305 9078 3288 9071 3284 9076
      3282 9076 3281 9069 3279 9072 3276 9069
      3275 9070 3276 9073 3273 9074 3261 9127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 246DEG 33KT 3270 9126

DL
Special weather statement, Jan 14, 2:03 AM CST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
203 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

MSZ019-034-035-040-041-140900-
Washington MS-Sharkey MS-Humphreys MS-Sunflower MS-Issaquena MS-
203 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA...HUMPHREYS AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CST...

At 203 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Glen Allan, or 11 miles south of Avon, moving east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hollandale, Belzoni, Inverness, Isola, Darlove, Grace, Panther Burn,
Estill, Nitta Yuma, Delta City, Murphy, Glen Allan and Silver City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 9045 3324 9042 3325 9041 3325 9038
      3324 9037 3327 9037 3328 9038 3328 9036
      3329 9036 3317 9033 3314 9033 3295 9104
      3312 9113 3344 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 247DEG 42KT 3307 9100

DL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 13, 7:01 PM CSTAreal Flood WarningJANJones6 hr
Jan 14, 1:09 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANBolivar66 min
Jan 14, 1:10 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSimpson65 min
Jan 14, 1:43 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANIssaquena, Sharkey62 min
Jan 14, 2:03 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANHumphreys57 min
Jan 14, 3:00 AM CSTFlash Flood WatchJANAttala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Claiborne, Clay and 25 more21 hr
Jan 14, 3:58 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANHolmes62 min
Jan 14, 4:20 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANWashington3 hr
Jan 14, 4:40 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys, Yazoo3 hr
Jan 14, 5:33 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANYazoo42 min
Jan 14, 5:45 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANAttala, Holmes, Yazoo3 hr
Jan 14, 6:33 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANNeshoba42 min
Jan 14, 6:35 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANWarren40 min
Jan 14, 7:28 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMadison47 min
Jan 14, 7:51 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningJANHumphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey6 hr
Jan 14, 9:39 AM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyJANHinds, Madison, Rankin3 hr
Jan 14, 10:00 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANJones5 days
Jan 14, 10:41 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHinds, Warren3 hr
Jan 14, 11:13 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSunflower71 hr
Jan 14, 11:13 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSharkey3 days
Jan 14, 11:28 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANRankin, Scott3 hr
Jan 14, 11:51 AM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatJANClay, Oktibbeha9 hr
Jan 14, 12:25 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCopiah, Hinds, Rankin, Simpson3 hr
Jan 14, 12:45 PM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatJANHinds, Madison, Rankin90 min
Jan 14, 1:01 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake4 days
Jan 14, 2:07 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake6 days
Jan 14, 2:07 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANMadison, Rankin7 days
Jan 14, 2:12 PM CSTAreal Flood WarningJANAttala, Hinds, Holmes, Issaquena, Leake, Madison and 6 more9 hr
Jan 14, 2:16 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHinds119 min
Jan 14, 4:11 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANAdams3 hr
Jan 14, 4:15 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Jefferson3 hr
Jan 14, 4:37 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANClarke4 days
Jan 13, 10:53 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANFranklin, Tensas37 min
Jan 14, 12:58 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANWest Carroll62 min
Jan 14, 5:59 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMadison46 min
Jan 14, 6:48 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMorehouse, Richland, West Carroll3 hr
Jan 14, 8:58 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANFranklin14 days

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2020Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2020Every flash flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.