River Flood Warning 132, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

In the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier today, strong cold
advection will bring a cold night to central Indiana. Cooler than
normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. A progressive
weather pattern through the forecast period will bringing periodic
chances for rainfall starting Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM //...

Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

Tonight will start out cloudy across the area with
northwesterly winds around 10 to 20 mph and gusts decreasing from
around 30 mph. Models are progging cloud cover to quickly dissipate,
but based on observations and satellite loop think the clearing is
too fast and thus slowed it in the forecast. Even so, should see
some scattering during the overnight hours. With strong cold
advection should see temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s,
about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

A progressive flow pattern will be in place over central Indiana
during the short term. This will initially allow cooler than normal
and dry conditions to settle in over the area. The dry part will be
short-lived, though, as an upper wave quickly crosses the country
and brings chances for rain overspreading the area starting late
Sunday morning. This will move through Sunday night. With the quick
flow pattern dry conditions should move back in for Monday. The
flatter flow will also allow temperatures to warm back to normal by
Sunday night. There are a few hours late Sunday night as the system
moves out with cooler air still in place that some snowflakes could
mix in, but should this occur no accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

A quasi-zonal pattern aloft will develop for much of next week
with a gradual transition to a more amplified pattern by the end
of the forecast period as a stronger wave aloft tracks into the
central Plains.

Multiple systems will track across the region within the
progressive flow aloft...resulting in periodic threats for rain
all week. The first of these systems will track through the Ohio
Valley Tuesday afternoon and night with higher confidence in
widespread showers impacting central Indiana. High pressure will
briefly return with mainly drier weather Wednesday before the
threat for rain resumes for the tail end of the week as a cold
front swings through the area.

Temperatures will be mild throughout the extended...with highs in
the 50s and 60s midweek then approaching 70 on Thursday before
falling back into the 50s Friday in wake of the frontal passage.
Lows will largely be in the 40s throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/21Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 422 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

Update...
No changes at KIND.

Previous Discussion...
Predominantly MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon and may
return late tonight into Saturday morning.

The cold front has passed east of all of the terminals as of early
afternoon. Expect gusty N/NW winds the rest of the afternoon with
MVFR stratus lingering. Some clearing is expected this evening as
drier air advects into the region from the north. As low level
flow veers to a more northeasterly direction overnight into
Saturday morning however...may see redevelopment of lower
ceilings. Model soundings maintain an inversion and shallow
moisture layer which support this potential. More substantial
clearing will come during the day Saturday with high pressure
building in.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan/TDUD

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
530 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>054-060>062-067>070-212130-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Sullivan-Greene-
Monroe-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Sullivan,
Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, and Mitchell
530 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Discussion: Much colder temperatures are expected tonight after the
passage of a cold front earlier today. Winds will continue to gust
around 20 to 30 mph out of the northwest through the evening and
decrease overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Discussion: A progressive weather pattern will bring periodic chances
for rain to the area starting Sunday. Lowland flooding will continue
along many area rivers as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ055>057-063>065-071-072-212130-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
530 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeastern central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Moderate flooding will continue or develop on some area
streams and a few spots along the East Fork White.

Discussion: While the weather will be dry and much colder tonight,
moderate flooding from rainfall the past couple of days will continue
or develop on a few areas streams and a few spots along the East Fork
White. Wind gusts around 30 mph out of the northwest will remain
through the evening and decrease during the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: Moderate river flooding could continue during the weekend
for a few spots near/along lower portions of the East Fork White
River.

Discussion: A progressive weather pattern will bring periodic chances
for rain to the area starting Sunday. Moderate and lowland flooding
along some area rivers from recent rainfall will take some time to
crest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

CP