Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Lincoln, IL

080 
WWUS53 KILX 290208
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ILC139-147-290218-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-200429T0230Z/
Moultrie-Piatt-
908 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MOULTRIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIATT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3968 8806 3965 8806 3966 8826 3985 8826
      3988 8800 3969 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 271DEG 32KT 3975 8815 

$$

ILC041-290230-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-200429T0230Z/
Douglas-
908 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

At 908 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Camargo, or 7
miles southeast of Tuscola, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Villa Grove, Newman, Camargo, Hindsboro and Murdock. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 8806 3965 8806 3966 8826 3985 8826
      3988 8800 3969 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 271DEG 32KT 3975 8815 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Auten

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
828 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

A line of thunderstorms will advance eastward across the I-57
corridor late this evening. Meanwhile further west across the
remainder of central Illinois, light rain showers will gradually
taper off and come to an end toward midnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

0115z/815pm radar imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms
extending from Champaign southwestward to the St Louis metro.
While these storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and
small hail, the overall severe weather threat is diminishing as
daytime instability wanes. Based on latest trends, the current
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for locations along/southeast of a
Clinton to Taylorville line will likely be cancelled early. The
line of storms will advance eastward into Indiana toward midnight:
however, a large area of trailing stratiform rain will linger for
2-3 hours behind the line. After that, mostly dry conditions will
return for areas west of the I-57 corridor overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1004mb low over southeast
Minnesota with a cold front extending southwestward to near the
Kansas City metro. The airmass ahead of the front has become
moderately unstable as per SPC mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE values
of 1000-1500J/kg near the Mississippi River. CAMs have been
consistently indicating robust convective initiation west of the
I-55 corridor between 21z/4pm and 22z/5pm. Given strengthening
instability and modest 0-6km bulk shear of around 40kt, think a
low-end severe risk will accompany the storms as they track
eastward and eventually congeal into a line early this evening.
Main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts/hail: however, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as the cells first get
organized. The tornado threat will be confined to the western KILX
CWA during the first couple hours of the event until the storms
form a solid line east of I-55 by around 01z/8pm. The storms will
then push steadily eastward and exit into Indiana by late
evening. Once the initial line departs, widely scattered showers
will remain possible for the remainder of the night. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the Illinois River
Valley...to the middle 50s near the Indiana border.

A short-wave trough will dig into the region and form a closed
low over Illinois on Thursday. Given cold core aloft during peak
heating, showers will become numerous from late morning through
early evening. With extensive cloud cover limiting boundary layer
heating, instability will remain meager: however, think a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible as MUCAPE values exceed
100J/kg. May also see a few small hailstones and perhaps even a
funnel cloud or two as the cold core moves overhead. High
temperatures will remain in the 50s across much of the area, with
lower 60s noted east of the I-57 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

The upper low will be slow to depart as several 12z models suggest
scattered showers will linger across the E/SE CWA into Thursday.
have included chance PoPs east of the I-55 corridor accordingly.
Have also lowered highs by a few degrees due to cloud cover...with
readings ranging from the middle 50s east to around 60 in the
Illinois River Valley. Once the low finally exits, rising upper
heights will lead to a significant warming trend for the end of
the week. Highs will climb into the 60s on Friday, then will soar
well into the 70s by Saturday. After that, the next storm system
will come into the picture late Saturday night through Sunday
night as low pressure tracks through the region. Once that feature
passes, a return to mild/dry weather is anticipated for
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

2345z/645pm radar imagery shows a line of convection along the
I-55 corridor. Based on radar timing tools, it appears the storms
will reach KDEC shortly before 01z and KCMI by around 01z. After 1
hour of thunder and visbys as low as 1-2 miles, the storms will
pass to the east...leaving behind a 2-3 hour period of light rain
with VFR ceilings/visbys. The rain will gradually dissipate and
come to an end at all TAF sites by late evening. After that, will
be watching MVFR ceilings currently over Minnesota/northern Iowa
working their way southward overnight. Model consensus brings MVFR
into KPIA by 10z...then further southeast to KSPI/KDEC by around
13z. With an upper low progged to track overhead, MVFR ceilings
and scattered showers will prevail for the remainder of the 00z
TAF period. Winds will initially be S at 10-15kt this evening,
then will veer to W/NW late tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

ILZ027>031-037-038-042>046-051>057-061>063-291100-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-McLean-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-
Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 10 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ036-040-041-047>050-291100-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

Minor flooding is occurring on the Illinois River at Havana and
Beardstown. Minor flooding is occurring on the lower Sangamon
river at Chandlerville and Oakford.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

Minor flooding will continue on the Illinois River at Beardstown,
Havana, and Valley City, and the Sangamon River at Chandlerville
and Oakford through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 8 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ066>068-071>073-291100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. There is a slight risk
that some of the storms could become severe, with damaging winds
and large hail. A tornado or two is also possible.

Minor flooding is occurring on the Little Wabash river near Clay
City.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Another chance of storms will occur Sunday and Sunday evening.

The Little Wabash river at Clay City will continue to remain above
or near flood stage through much of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 8 pm and 11 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SE LOW POINT          40.85N 89.28W
04/28/2020                   WOODFORD           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
531 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             WASHBURN                40.92N 89.29W
04/28/2020  E0.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   PUBLIC

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
547 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             3 ESE CAZENOVIA         40.83N 89.28W
04/28/2020  E0.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
731 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DAWSON                  39.85N 89.46W
04/28/2020                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING ROADWAY FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

SBAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
750 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             1 SSW NIANTIC           39.84N 89.17W
04/28/2020  E0.88 INCH       MACON              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SBAKER