Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Convective line continues over the Flint hills and southeast KS at
this time with the tail end extending back into south central KS.
Also beginning to see additional storms developing over SW KS.
Latest RAP model veers to the E-SE the moisture transport that is
feeding the Flint Hills line of storms, so expect most of the
convection to shift E or SE into NE OK later this morning. But the
back edge of the low level moisture transport may bring the SW KS
convection into south central KS for the early morning hours as
well.  So could see the convection linger over southern KS for the
morning hours before slowly diminishing after sunrise.

Latest high Rez models suggest remnant surface boundary will still
be located over southern KS for the afternoon hours today.  A weak
low pressure area is expected to develop over central OK for the
afternoon hours, with moisture return just ahead of this low,
expected to lead to an unstable airmass creeping into southern KS
with 1500-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE. For the early afternoon, bufkit
soundings suggests an elevated mixed layer (EML) will keep any
convection from developing.  But as the late afternoon progresses
into the evening, 850-700h moisture transport increases over the top
of the surface boundary, with this EML diminishing enough for
convection to develop during the early evening hours over southern
KS.  Bulk shear isnt all that impressive, around 20-30 kts, so think
a few strong to an isolated severe storm or two may be possible
given the unstable airmass expected south of the boundary. The
bigger concern will be training storms and possible renewed chances
of flash flooding for late this evening and overnight, across
southern KS. Precipitable water values are still 100-150 percent of
normal, so convection could produce some pockets of heavy rainfall.
Inherited a flash flood watch for most of the southern KS, and plan
on keep this going, given the renewed convective chance.

Some uncertainty on how late tonight into early Sat will play out,
as latest short term models suggest that moisture transport will
shift northeast, possibly leading to most of the convection lifting
northeast of the forecast area, by early Sat morning.

A moist an unstable environment looks to remain over the eastern
half of KS on Sat, as another weak shortwave moves out of the
Rockies into the plains. As this shortwave approaches, a cold
frontal boundary is expected to drop south across the forecast area
for Sat afternoon. Convergence along this boundary is expected to
lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms for areas mainly
along and east of the KS Turnpike for Sat afternoon into Sat
evening. Some uncertainty on how much instability will be available
ahead of the front, but shear around 30 kts suggests a strong to
severe storm chance, given expected instability of 1000-1500 j/kg.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The Sat evening frontal boundary will finally sweep most of the
convective chances to the south and east of the area for Sun into
the beginning of the week, as an upper level ridge builds into the
high plains.  This will give areas hit by heavy rainfall over the
last few days a chance to dry out.  Expect near normal temperatures
in the middle 70s, with the ridge overhead.

The dry spell looks to continue at least through Tue and Wed as
well.  There is a chance of convection returning to the high plains
by Tue night, but most of this chance will stay west of the forecast
area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Extremely low confidence forecast after 1200 UTC. Anticipate
current storms will continue to spread south into moisture/low
level jet. The problem is whether the storms will continue to push
south after daybreak or stall (and if so where?) Seems probable
that it would slow during the day, as rich moisture feed
decreases with the veering 850MB flow. Mainly upslope flow low
level flow across the area will persist throughout the day, but
if precipitation does not occur, MVFR clouds would be much less
likely. Will have some chance for storms again tomorrow afternoon
and/or evening, but where/when is really unclear. Opted to not
mention those at this time. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  63  77  55 /  60  60  70  20
Hutchinson      73  61  76  52 /  60  60  50  10
Newton          73  62  76  54 /  60  60  70  10
ElDorado        75  62  77  55 /  70  60  80  20
Winfield-KWLD   78  64  78  57 /  60  50  70  20
Russell         74  57  76  50 /  20  80  40   0
Great Bend      71  59  77  50 /  30  70  40   0
Salina          75  61  76  52 /  30  70  60  10
McPherson       73  61  76  52 /  40  70  60  10
Coffeyville     75  65  79  60 /  90  70  90  50
Chanute         76  64  78  58 /  90  70  90  50
Iola            76  64  78  57 /  70  70  90  50
Parsons-KPPF    76  64  78  60 /  90  70  90  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KSZ069>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
405 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
405 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong and severe storms will develop this evening impacting
locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing golf ball sized hail, damaging
winds of 60 mph, and a brief tornado.

Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage this evening and
overnight impacting much of south central and southeast Kansas. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing golf ball sized hail,
damaging winds of 60 mph and heavy rainfall.

Heavy rain may produce localized flooding and rises on rivers and
creeks. See latest Flash Flood Watch for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for strong to severe storms will remain in the forecast
for Friday and Saturday. With multiple rounds of thunderstorms
expected, the risk of flooding could linger into the weekend. See
latest Flash Flood Watch for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening especially along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike from Matfield Green to Kansas City.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
216 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ093-150745-
Cowley KS-
216 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 245 AM CDT.

* At 215 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm north of Udall...moving east at 35
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Udall, Atlanta, Rock and Winfield City Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3736 9715 3748 9715 3748 9652 3732 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 272DEG 29KT 3745 9705

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
05/15/2020  E60 MPH          ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ069-093-150815-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-
242 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 238 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rose
  Hill to 5 miles southeast of Latham...and moving east at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Andover, Rose Hill, Douglass, Atlanta, Latham, Rock and Beaumont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3744 9715 3766 9715 3767 9653 3731 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 264DEG 24KT 3759 9705 3747 9659

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ094-098>100-150815-
Montgomery KS-Labette KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
247 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 246 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  southwest of West Mineral to near Mound Valley to Elk City to 8
  miles south of Moline...and moving southeast at 45 mph.

Small hail and 50 mph winds are possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Caney, Oswego,
  Chetopa, Sedan, Altamont, Howard, Cedar Vale, Edna, Dearing, Mound
  Valley, Moline, Longton, Elk City, Tyro, Grenola and Peru.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9652 3761 9652 3760 9596 3739 9596
      3738 9508 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 305DEG 40KT 3722 9498 3717 9539 3728 9588 3725
9630

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ099-100-150845-
Montgomery KS-Labette KS-
316 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 345 AM CDT.

* At 312 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  north of Havana to near Liberty to Oswego...and moving southeast at
  35 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Caney, Oswego,
  Chetopa, Altamont, Edna, Dearing, Mound Valley, Elk City, Tyro,
  Liberty, Havana, Bolton, Sycamore, Bartlett, Labette and Parsons
  Tri City Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9596 3738 9597 3738 9508 3700 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 303DEG 28KT 3716 9597 3717 9553 3715 9509

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

KSZ069-093-094-098-150845-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
321 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 345 AM CDT.

* At 318 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Latham to Moline to 6 miles southwest of Elk City...and moving
  east to southeast at 35 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sedan, Howard, Cedar Vale, Moline, Longton, Grenola, Latham, Peru,
  Chautauqua, Elk Falls, Elgin, Niotaze and Hale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are not expected to become severe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9653 3722 9654 3763 9689 3754 9612
      3748 9596 3700 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 276DEG 28KT 3755 9668 3738 9627 3721 9596

KLEINSASSER