Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

A trough  is set up in the Plains with a secondary one off of the
West Coast. The front associated with this system straddles from
southern Iowa to central Kansas into southwest Kansas. After a
cloudy day yesterday, the sun came out today. Temperatures rose to
the 70s for most of the eastern half of the state with even the
lower 80s along the Kansas and Oklahoma border. Attention turns to
thunderstorm potential along the front this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Highlights:

1) Strong and severe thunderstorms southeast of KS Turnpike this
evening and tonight

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Friday in
portions of south central Kansas

3) Flooding including flash flooding

4) Thunderstorm potential Friday and Saturday

Challenges:

1) Precipitation chances/coverage Friday

2) Rainfall amounts and respective flooding issues

3) Strength of convection on Friday and Saturday

Changes:
1) Precipitation chances and respective timing
2) Slight increase in temps in central Kansas on Friday

Headline: Flash Flood Watch this evening thru Saturday afternoon in
portions of south central and southeast Kansas

An active period will occur the next couple days with thunderstorms
anticipated this evening thru Saturday. There is concern for severe
storms especially this evening thru tonight with the possibility of
hail up to golf ball size and 60 mph winds which maintains the same
message as the last few forecasts. The movement of the front
mentioned in the Synopsis section is expected to be the driving
force for convective development as the instability rises especially
east of the Kansas Turnpike this afternoon and evening with 0-3km MUCAPE
of 3-4.5k J/kg and modest shear of 30-40kts at 0-6km. It is
questionable if the storms could develop well out ahead of the
front; CAMs are suggesting this may be a possibility, but the
better chances definitely appear closer to the front. As mentioned
in the previous discussion, it appears the convective mode would
be multicell with potential supercells more likely in northeast
Kansas and Missouri. There does appear to be somewhat of a linear
component later on. Initial development may be close to 4PM in
northeast Kansas with increasing coverage closer to the Flint
Hills around 7PM.

Thunderstorms are expected to back build further west into
central and south central portions of the state tonight into early
Friday as the front continues to track southeast. This front is
moving slow which would enhance the flooding threat with storms
staying closer to that boundary. There could be strong to severe
storms mainly southeast of Kansas Highway 61 or southeast of a
line from McPherson to Hutchinson to Pratt. Similar hazards are
anticipated with hail up to golf ball size and 60 mph winds.

The concern for flash flooding is on the uptick this evening as
moisture continues to surge northeast with a focus in eastern
Kansas. Rainfall totals the past seven days have ranged from 3 to
above 5 inches in the Flint Hills. Additional convection could
produce another 1 to 3 inches in well saturated areas with locally
higher amounts possible the next couple of days. The Flash Flood
Watch appears to be in line with the highest area of expected
rainfall. Please see the hydrology section for more information.

Friday afternoon - The better instability again looks like it will
stay further to the south which would reduce the severe thunderstorm
threat, but this is dependent on which model you decide is the most
representative. There are suggestions by the RAP and GFS that CAPE
will climb near 3k J/kg with 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear in the
afternoon and evening hours along the Kansas/Oklahoma border.
However, longevity of the morning activity could compromise the
environment as well. At this point, the lean is possible strong
thunderstorms with maybe some that approach severe criteria.
Confidence is not high for this time period in regards to the
strength of the storms.

Saturday - The last day of this active period will be Saturday; the
secondary wave which is just off the West Coast is expected to set
up along the Front Range late Friday then move through the Plains on
Saturday. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe
potentially in south central and southeast Kansas. Stay tuned for
updates on Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Highlights: Quieter and warmer

An active week will be followed by a much quieter one as a ridge
moves in Sunday through the middle of next week. The mid and upper
levels form an Omega block pattern for the first part of the week
across the CONUS. After the wet week, it will be nice to have a
period to dry out. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s
for Sunday and Monday then to the low to mid 80s by Wednesday.
Seasonal normals are in the mid 70s. Low temperatures should stay in
the 50s. Take advantage of those outdoor activities if you are able
during this window.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Extremely low confidence forecast after 1200 UTC. Anticipate
current storms will continue to spread south into moisture/low
level jet. The problem is whether the storms will continue to push
south after daybreak or stall (and if so where?) Seems probable
that it would slow during the day, as rich moisture feed
decreases with the veering 850MB flow. Mainly upslope flow low
level flow across the area will persist throughout the day, but
if precipitation does not occur, MVFR clouds would be much less
likely. Will have some chance for storms again tomorrow afternoon
and/or evening, but where/when is really unclear. Opted to not
mention those at this time. -Howerton

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Flash Flood Watch from 6PM tonight thru 7PM Saturday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this week which
are expected to continue into Saturday only amplify the flooding
threat. The highest rainfall totals in the last seven days have been
across southern Kansas with 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts
especially in the Flint Hills. As moisture transport increases
tonight along with the precipitable water values of 1.25-1.75
inches, flooding is going to become a greater concern especially in
the Flint Hills and areas to the east. The slow moving front will
not help. Flooding and flash flooding very well may occur tonight
and possibly the next couple of days in the low lying areas and in
towns. While only a few river points are forecast to rise into
action or flood stage at this time, there very well could be more
depending on how much rain falls within the respective basins.
Please stay weather aware and heed any road closures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  76  63  78 /  60  70  60  70
Hutchinson      62  73  61  76 /  50  50  60  50
Newton          63  73  62  75 /  40  60  70  70
ElDorado        64  75  62  77 /  60  70  70  80
Winfield-KWLD   66  78  64  79 /  50  70  60  70
Russell         57  74  57  75 /  20  40  70  40
Great Bend      59  71  59  76 /  30  40  60  40
Salina          60  75  61  75 /  30  50  70  60
McPherson       61  73  61  75 /  30  50  70  60
Coffeyville     66  75  65  79 /  70  90  70  90
Chanute         64  76  64  77 /  70  80  70  90
Iola            64  76  64  77 /  70  70  70  90
Parsons-KPPF    66  76  64  78 /  80  80  70  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KSZ069>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...PJH
HYDROLOGY...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
405 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
405 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong and severe storms will develop this evening impacting
locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing golf ball sized hail, damaging
winds of 60 mph, and a brief tornado.

Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage this evening and
overnight impacting much of south central and southeast Kansas. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing golf ball sized hail,
damaging winds of 60 mph and heavy rainfall.

Heavy rain may produce localized flooding and rises on rivers and
creeks. See latest Flash Flood Watch for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for strong to severe storms will remain in the forecast
for Friday and Saturday. With multiple rounds of thunderstorms
expected, the risk of flooding could linger into the weekend. See
latest Flash Flood Watch for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening especially along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike from Matfield Green to Kansas City.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
05/15/2020  E0.50 INCH       WOODSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
120 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             2 S ROSE HILL           37.54N 97.13W
05/15/2020  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
125 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             2 E ROSE HILL           37.57N 97.10W
05/15/2020  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTED FOR LOCATION.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
126 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 AM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
05/15/2020  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
05/15/2020  M1.00 INCH       ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
137 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE IOLA               37.89N 95.34W
05/15/2020  E60 MPH          ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER