Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

319 
WWUS53 KICT 042144
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
444 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC099-042154-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200504T2200Z/
Labette KS-
444 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LABETTE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9529 3714 9507 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 229DEG 31KT 3712 9505 

$$

BUTLER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
341 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Key surface boundary at 2030 UTC was located from about northwest
corner of Labette County to near KCNU to just south of KIDP to
the southwest corner of Chautauqua county. Cap is nearly eroded
with multiple attempts at storms on radar/satellite over the past
hour. ACARS sounding at KTUL around 2000 UTC confirmed a
substantial warm nose of 15c at 9kft. Threat for severe storms,
including a tornado, continues along and south of previously
mentioned boundary. Still appears that storms will exit area by
around 0000 UTC at the latest.

With the influx of cooler air north of the boundary, patchy
drizzle or sprinkles are possible late this afternoon and early
this evening across most of southeast KS and the Flint Hills.
-Howerton

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Tonight:
Anticipate storms will likely be out of the area around 0000 UTC,
if not before. Otherwise, cooler/drier air will overspread the
area on gusty north winds during the night. Low temperatures will
be significantly cooler than yesterday.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
With drier air and some downslope component, hedged towards warmer
and windier guidance (with better mixing) for high temperatures
on Tuesday. On Wednesday there will be little to no downslope flow
and temperatures will probably be slightly cooler.

Wednesday night-Thursday night:
Challenge will be Wednesday night-Thursday as mid level
moisture/baroclinic zone moves across the area. Thinking elevated
showers/storms will develop late Wednesday night and linger well
into Thursday, with higher probability across eastern half of the
forecast area. The later precipitation will be aided by shortwave
moving down northwest flow, which will not exit area until very
late Thursday night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Area will remain in northwest flow, with large west coast ridge
and central KS trough, although slight deamplification is likely
during the period. No significant changes from initialization
grids. Does appear to be weak support for a nocturnal round of
storms Sunday night, but better chances appear to be north and
northeast of forecast area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Outflow boundary is racing southward into southern Kansas early
this afternoon with low clouds in its wake. Winds will switch to
the northwest with low clouds gradually scattering out from west
to east today. Thunderstorms will be possible along this outflow
in southeast Kansas for this afternoon. Wind shear will be
possible later tonight across the region as northwest winds
decrease but winds aloft remain quite strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  75  47  72 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      46  74  45  71 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          46  72  45  70 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        47  73  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   49  75  48  73 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         41  75  43  71 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  74  44  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          44  74  44  70 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       44  73  44  70 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     52  73  47  72 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         50  71  47  70 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            50  71  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...PJH
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
127 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
127 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop again this
afternoon along a outflow boundary, generally along and south of a Sedan
to Neodesha, to Erie line between 3 and 6 PM. The strongest
activity will be capable of golfball size hail or larger, 60 to 75
mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Additionally, the environment
could support a few tornadoes...stay tuned.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The risk for severe weather appears
low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.14W
05/04/2020  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT FROM DISPATCH...HAD GOLF BALL
            SIZE HAIL IN LINCOLN AND JUST WEST OF
            LINCOLN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     HAIL             CHANUTE                 37.67N 95.46W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT...PICTURE RECEIVED VIA
            FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

VAUGHAN