Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Wichita, KS

716 
WWUS53 KICT 041517
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1017 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC017-041545-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200504T1545Z/
Chase KS-
1017 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY...

At 1016 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Dunlap to 6 miles east of Strong
City to near Cottonwood Falls, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Saffordville, Tallgrass Prairie and
Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9636 3830 9662 3852 9660 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 270DEG 42KT 3853 9645 3842 9641 3831 9653 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Martin

904 
WWUS53 KICT 041531
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1031 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC017-041541-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200504T1545Z/
Chase KS-
1031 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible on the backside of the thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3829 9636 3830 9662 3852 9660 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 268DEG 42KT 3854 9626 3842 9622 3832 9634 

$$

Martin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Forecast highlights: Severe thunderstorm potential today,
shower/thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
night, high probability of below normal temperatures Thursday
through early to mid next week.

Similar to yesterday early morning, expecting scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to eventually develop between roughly 4-7 AM across
portions of central and south-central Kansas, gradually developing
and moving/expanding into east-central and southeast Kansas through
mid-late morning. The culprits will be strengthening 850-700mb
warm/moist advection ahead of approaching shortwave energy. Strong
to severe storms are possible given the combination of ample
elevated buoyancy, strong effective deep layer shear, and steep
mid-level lapse rates. Elevated supercells are once again possible,
capable of golfball size hail or larger and locally heavy
rainfall. A damaging wind threat may eventually develop as well if
numerous storm-mergers causes activity to grow upscale into
bowing segments.

If this morning's thunderstorms do not scour out the airmass too
bad, a strongly unstable warm sector should develop for surface-
based thunderstorms after about 3-4 PM, generally along and east of
the Flint Hills corridor of southeast Kansas, as the Pacific cold
front approaches from the west. Strong deep layer shear/instability
combination should support supercells or supercell structures
embedded within QLCS segments, capable of golfball size hail or
larger and damaging winds. Additionally, thinking a tornado or two
is possible, given ample low-level shear, low-level instability, and
relatively low cloud bases as progged by the RAP, NAM, GFS. In fact,
if the RAP forecast soundings verify, large clockwise turning
hodographs would support the potential for a strong tornado. Once
again though, the afternoon severe threat is contingent on this
morning's storms not scouring out the airmass. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Our next chance of showers/thunderstorms will arrive late Wednesday
night through Thursday night, as shortwave energy approaches from
the northwest. Despite impressive deep layer shear owing to the
northwest flow aloft, instability looks to be rather meager, so
severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

An overall cooling trend is expected Thursday through at least early
to mid next week, as an unseasonably deep eastern CONUS upper trough
develops and maintains itself for several days. This will support
seasonably cool to below normal temperatures across the region, with
daytime highs mostly in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s.
However, the cooler GFS would support some daytime highs in the 50s
and 30s-40s for overnight lows. At this time, we are not expecting
freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will impact portions of
central and eastern Kansas this morning, mainly northeast of a
line extending from Great Bend to Wichita to Winfield. Widespread
IFR will spread north across the region this morning, possibly
going LIFR for locations west of the Flint Hills. Another chance
for scattered thunderstorms will be over far southeast Kansas
between about 3-7 PM. IFR conditions will improve to VFR from
northwest to southeast this afternoon in wake of a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  51  74  50 /  40  10   0   0
Hutchinson      70  49  73  48 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          69  49  72  49 /  70  10   0   0
ElDorado        73  50  73  49 /  60  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   81  51  74  49 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         67  45  74  45 /  50   0   0   0
Great Bend      71  46  74  46 /  50   0   0   0
Salina          65  47  73  47 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       68  48  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
Coffeyville     79  53  72  49 /  60  40   0   0
Chanute         74  51  71  48 /  80  40   0   0
Iola            70  51  71  48 /  80  40   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    77  52  71  49 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
323 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning across portions
of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, especially along
and northeast of a line extending from roughly Great Bend to
Wichita to Winfield. The strongest activity will be capable of
golfball size hail or larger, 60 to 70 mph winds, and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon through
early evening, generally along and east of a line extending from
Eureka to Moline to Sedan between about 3 and 7 PM. There remains
some uncertainty on whether thunderstorms will even form,
especially if this morning's thunderstorms are fairly widespread.
However, if thunderstorms are able to develop, the strongest
activity will be capable of golfball size hail or larger, 60 to 70
mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Additionally, the environment
could support a few tornadoes...stay tuned.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The risk for severe weather appears
low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning, roughly along and
northeast of a line extending from Great Bend to Wichita to
Winfield, and again between about 3 and 7 PM along and east of a
line extending from Eureka to Moline to Sedan. All reports of
severe weather are greatly appreciated...thank you.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
934 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     HAIL             MORAN                   37.92N 95.17W
05/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             MORAN                   37.92N 95.17W
05/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       ALLEN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5
            MINS.

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
943 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     HAIL             1 ENE MORAN             37.92N 95.15W
05/04/2020  M1.75 INCH       ALLEN              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

VAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
944 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ052-053-041545-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
944 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT.

* At 941 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  north of Burdick to near Lincolnville to Marion...and moving east
  at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Marion, Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Bazaar, Elmdale, Hymer,
  Saffordville, Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9635 3826 9636 3827 9717
      3847 9695 3853 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 263DEG 39KT 3865 9684 3848 9689 3833 9704

Martin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
948 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     HAIL             NEW CAMBRIA             38.88N 97.51W
05/04/2020  M2.00 INCH       SALINE             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT. PICTURE OF 2 INCH HAIL FROM
            NEW CAMBRIA ON TWITTER VIA BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

VAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
957 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     HAIL             CHANUTE                 37.67N 95.46W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED IN CHANUTE VIA
            FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

VAUGHAN