Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Wichita, KS

558 
WWUS53 KICT 041139
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC053-105-167-041200-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200504T1200Z/
Lincoln KS-Ellsworth KS-Russell KS-
639 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH AND EASTERN RUSSELL
COUNTIES...

At 639 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dorrance, or
near Wilson, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Wilson, Lucas, Sylvan Grove, Dorrance, Bunker Hill, Wilson
State Park, Wilson Lake and Russell Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9861 3909 9832 3870 9832 3870 9869
      3888 9891
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 247DEG 31KT 3882 9858 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DARMOFAL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
248 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Forecast highlights: Severe thunderstorm potential today,
shower/thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Thursday
night, high probability of below normal temperatures Thursday
through early to mid next week.

Similar to yesterday early morning, expecting scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to eventually develop between roughly 4-7 AM across
portions of central and south-central Kansas, gradually developing
and moving/expanding into east-central and southeast Kansas through
mid-late morning. The culprits will be strengthening 850-700mb
warm/moist advection ahead of approaching shortwave energy. Strong
to severe storms are possible given the combination of ample
elevated buoyancy, strong effective deep layer shear, and steep
mid-level lapse rates. Elevated supercells are once again possible,
capable of golfball size hail or larger and locally heavy
rainfall. A damaging wind threat may eventually develop as well if
numerous storm-mergers causes activity to grow upscale into
bowing segments.

If this morning's thunderstorms do not scour out the airmass too
bad, a strongly unstable warm sector should develop for surface-
based thunderstorms after about 3-4 PM, generally along and east of
the Flint Hills corridor of southeast Kansas, as the Pacific cold
front approaches from the west. Strong deep layer shear/instability
combination should support supercells or supercell structures
embedded within QLCS segments, capable of golfball size hail or
larger and damaging winds. Additionally, thinking a tornado or two
is possible, given ample low-level shear, low-level instability, and
relatively low cloud bases as progged by the RAP, NAM, GFS. In fact,
if the RAP forecast soundings verify, large clockwise turning
hodographs would support the potential for a strong tornado. Once
again though, the afternoon severe threat is contingent on this
morning's storms not scouring out the airmass. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Our next chance of showers/thunderstorms will arrive late Wednesday
night through Thursday night, as shortwave energy approaches from
the northwest. Despite impressive deep layer shear owing to the
northwest flow aloft, instability looks to be rather meager, so
severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

An overall cooling trend is expected Thursday through at least early
to mid next week, as an unseasonably deep eastern CONUS upper trough
develops and maintains itself for several days. This will support
seasonably cool to below normal temperatures across the region, with
daytime highs mostly in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s.
However, the cooler GFS would support some daytime highs in the 50s
and 30s-40s for overnight lows. At this time, we are not expecting
freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

Main concerns: TSRA potential tonight through tomorrow morning,
MVFR/IFR cigs tonight through tomorrow afternoon, winds switch to
northerly flow tomorrow.

Another round of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will
be possible tonight into early tomorrow morning. While there
remains some uncertainty on coverage confidence has increased
in storm development. Severe hail, potentially significant
(2+inches), and strong winds will be the main concern nearly area
wide. Have included VCTS at all sites.

High confidence in MVFR/IFR cigs developing late tonight through
tomorrow afternoon as appreciable moisture advects into the area.

There is additional chances for SHRA/TSRA tomorrow afternoon
across southeast KS along a cold front. Winds will flip to
northerly from west to east throughout the daytime hours tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  51  74  50 /  40  10   0   0
Hutchinson      69  49  73  48 /  50   0   0   0
Newton          68  49  72  49 /  70  10   0   0
ElDorado        72  50  73  49 /  60  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   80  51  74  49 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         66  45  74  45 /  50   0   0   0
Great Bend      70  46  74  46 /  50   0   0   0
Salina          65  47  73  47 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       67  48  72  47 /  60   0   0   0
Coffeyville     78  53  72  49 /  60  40   0   0
Chanute         71  51  71  48 /  80  40   0   0
Iola            70  51  71  48 /  80  40   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  52  71  49 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
323 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning across portions
of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, especially along
and northeast of a line extending from roughly Great Bend to
Wichita to Winfield. The strongest activity will be capable of
golfball size hail or larger, 60 to 70 mph winds, and locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon through
early evening, generally along and east of a line extending from
Eureka to Moline to Sedan between about 3 and 7 PM. There remains
some uncertainty on whether thunderstorms will even form,
especially if this morning's thunderstorms are fairly widespread.
However, if thunderstorms are able to develop, the strongest
activity will be capable of golfball size hail or larger, 60 to 70
mph winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Additionally, the environment
could support a few tornadoes...stay tuned.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
night through Thursday night. The risk for severe weather appears
low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning, roughly along and
northeast of a line extending from Great Bend to Wichita to
Winfield, and again between about 3 and 7 PM along and east of a
line extending from Eureka to Moline to Sedan. All reports of
severe weather are greatly appreciated...thank you.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ032-047-041130-
Russell KS-Barton KS-
553 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Russell County in central Kansas...
  Northern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 630 AM CDT.

* At 550 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Galatia, or 7 miles northeast
  of Otis...moving east-northeast at 50 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hoisington, Olmitz, Milberger, Galatia, Susank and Odin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 9849 3856 9848 3850 9903 3870 9903
      3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1052Z 257DEG 46KT 3858 9894

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
606 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ032-041130-
Russell KS-
606 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Russell County in central Kansas...

* Until 630 AM CDT.

* At 604 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles northwest of Milberger, or 7
  miles south of Walker...moving east at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Dorrance, Milberger, Bunker Hill, Wilson
  State Park, Wilson Lake and Russell Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 9904 3908 9848 3878 9849 3870 9901
      3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1105Z 254DEG 36KT 3877 9903

DARMOFAL