Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
209 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase across the region through today as
tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Isaias interacts with a
stalling front. The storm will pass near the Georgia and
Carolina coasts today and then through eastern North Carolina
tonight, enhancing our risk of heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM: Convection continues to bubble from the southern
Escarpment up thru our eastern I-40 corridor. This activity
initially appeared to fire within a zone of low-level convergence
depicted around 950-900 mb, and it seemingly is now following that
convergence axis as it shifts closer to the Blue Ridge. Several
meso model runs reflect that idea, and their output was blended
into the morning PoPs. The convergence, along with flow becoming
increasingly favorable for upslope, and an amplifying jet streak
oriented along the Appalachians, all should come together to
support widespread showers/storms over the mountains by late
morning. While the Piedmont looks to experience a lull in forcing
and moisture early today, the approach of Isaias will bring likely
to categorical chances back for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday: Tropical storm Isaias will be passing by to our
east Monday night and moving away from the area Tuesday. Expect
widespread precipitation will be ongoing during the evening then
tapering off quickly from west to east overnight. Heavy rainfall may
still be ongoing as well, but should follow similar pattern and
taper off quickly overnight. Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect
Monday night as a result. Gusty winds will be possible Monday night
as the cyclone moves northward. However, wind speeds should be well
below advisory level. Still, a few trees could fall given the
rainfall expected.

Isolated to scattered convection will linger Tuesday but significant
heavy rainfall is not expected. Some low end gusts will be possible
as well, but should be lower than Monday night. Highs will be a
couple of degrees below normal.

Expect a return to scattered diurnal convection on Wednesday. Highs
will back to around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday: Starting Wed evening with a closed upper low
over Quebec which will move east to the Canadian maritimes by
Friday. The upper trough remains over the eastern half of the CONUS
at least early in this forecast period.  A moist low level flow will
aid in the convective development late each day. The axis of the
upper trough on both the GFS and ECMWF on Wed night will be over the
Mississippi Valley. This axis shifts to the East Coast by Sunday.
There is a notable difference on Day 7 in that the EC maintains the
trough over the East Coast into early next week while the GFS begins
replacing the East Coast trough with a ridge.  Models are in
agreement that the more active day may be on Sunday as a significant
shortwave reaches our region. Temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: At issuance time, SCT SHRA/TSRA are
lined up along an axis from north of KGMU, across KHKY, to near
KINT. Localized IFR cig/vsby will occur within this activity. It
should trend NW toward the mountains with time following the zone of
best low-level convergence, and as a jet streak amplifies along the
Appalachians. Some mountain valley IFR fog/cigs are already evident,
but confidence that these will form over KAVL is not very high,
so that is only TEMPO. Bands of moisture extending outward from TC
Isaias will spread inland today, and strengthening onshore/upslope
flow will make widespread SHRA for the area along with SCT TSRA by
early afternoon. The TS mention is low enough mostly to mention in
VC or PROB. Bases should be mostly VFR but some spotty MVFR will
be possible, and TSRA or heavier SHRA may produce MVFR vsby. Isaias
will make its nearest pass to our area tonight, and widespread MVFR
cigs should develop before 06z in the continued onshore flow. It
will also bring low-end gusts to KCLT in the early hours Tuesday.

Outlook: Daily rounds of afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA will likely
continue most of the week. Morning restrictions can't be ruled out.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High  99%     Med   78%
KGSP       High  86%     High  85%     High  99%     High  81%
KAVL       Med   74%     Med   78%     High  98%     High  87%
KHKY       Med   76%     Med   79%     High  98%     Med   70%
KGMU       High  82%     High  81%     High  99%     High  85%
KAND       High 100%     High  95%     High  99%     High  97%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ033-049-050-
     501>506.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO/08
AVIATION...08

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
128 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ501-502-504-030600-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
128 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CALDWELL AND CENTRAL BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

At 128 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Lenoir, or near Gamewell, moving north at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Hudson, Cajah's Mountain, Blowing Rock In Caldwell
County, Cedar Rock, Lake Rhodhiss, Valdese, Rutherford College and
Sawmills.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147
      3609 8145 3607 8144 3608 8142 3607 8140
      3604 8140 3604 8138 3575 8154 3580 8175
      3612 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 197DEG 22KT 3585 8163

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ036-037-030615-
Davie NC-Iredell NC-
137 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN DAVIE AND NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM
EDT...

At 137 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northwest of Mocksville, or near Harmony,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Harmony, Turnersburg, Olin, Sheffield, Farmington, Cool Springs and
Union Grove.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8065 3584 8067 3586 8067 3586 8069
      3584 8071 3588 8087 3605 8085 3605 8050
      3604 8049 3606 8047 3606 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 207DEG 18KT 3595 8071

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ036-037-030645-
Davie NC-Iredell NC-
213 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAVIE AND
NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

At 213 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Yadkinville, or 5 miles southeast of Lone Hickory,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Harmony, Farmington and Sheffield.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8046 3605 8046 3585 8063 3593 8082
      3605 8079 3605 8050 3604 8049 3605 8047
      3606 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 211DEG 30KT 3600 8068

HG

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