Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

144 
WGUS72 KGSP 031409
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCC115-031600-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-200803T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison NC-
1009 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR 
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY...

At 1009 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated locally as much as 3 inches 
of rain had fallen this morning in the warned area.  Excessive 
runoff is likely ongoing throughout the Shelton Laurel Creek Basin.


Thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 
and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hot Springs and Allenstand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8260 3587 8278 3586 8284 3587 8286
      3593 8289 3592 8284 3593 8283 3592 8282
      3593 8281 3594 8280 3597 8278 3599 8279
      3600 8278 3602 8272 3605 8268 3607 8264
      3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS 

$$

CSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
703 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase across the region through today as tropical
moisture from Tropical Storm Isaias interacts with a stalling front.
The storm will pass near the Georgia and Carolina coasts today and
then through eastern North Carolina tonight, enhancing our risk of
heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. A more typical summertime
pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will then return for
the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM: A stalling cold front over East TN will serve
to focus convective activity this morning, driven by diurnal
destabilization and enhanced by an amplifying jet streak oriented
along the Appalachians. PoPs ramp up to categorical first over
the mountains near the TN border as a result. While the Piedmont
is currently under a lull in forcing, the approach of Isaias is
promoting moist upslope flow that should expand coverage near the
Escarpment. It also will bring likely to categorical chances back
for much of the area this afternoon. CAPE is expected to stay a
little below typical August values. However, robust mid to upper
level flow surrounding the trough will produce 0-6km shear of 30
to 40 kt over the NW half of the CWA. Therefore SPC has included a
D1 Marginal Risk across that part of our area. Loosely organized
multicells producing damaging wind would appear to be the most
likely route that severe wx would occur.

The continued weakening of the front and slightly more eastward
trend in the Isaias track no longer appears as likely to support a
sharp axis of heavy rainfall. There will be at least an isolated
risk of flash flooding across much of the area today. The
Flash Flood Watch for the northern mountains/foothills is
being maintained, however, as it is not yet totally clear the
convective trend is downward. The trough to our west will begin
to make eastward progress tonight, creeping the front eastward,
and some drying is expected both due to that development and as
winds turn more downslope around Isaias as it crosses eastern
NC. The circulation of the storm will be near enough to support a
mixed E to NE flow late tonight in the low levels along and east
of I-77. Breezy conditions likely will develop, with gusts perhaps
up to 25 mph at times. Significant impacts are unlikely aside from
a few trees falling in saturated soil; given flash-flood guidance
being above 3 inches in 6 hours, and total QPF remaining well
under 2 inches by and large in those areas, confidence is fairly
low that the soils will be wet enough for much uprooting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 am EDT Monday: The center of circulation of Isaias should
move rapidly away to the northeast during the day on Tuesday. After
lingering morning showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east
of I-77, a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening
convection will return as the lingering, stout upper jet axis moves
slowly east across the forecast area. Low-level flow will quickly
become a westerly downslope with the passage of Isaias to the east,
but the downsloping will likely not counteract the upper forcing,
moist boundary layer, and lingering frontal zone stalled in the
area. Solid scattered coverage should easily return through the
afternoon hours in spite of the westerly flow.

General troughiness will persist west of the Appalachians Wednesday
through Wed night as additional shortwaves move east of the
Mississippi River Valley, and the stalled surface boundary slowly
dissipates in place. Better insolation will permit SBCAPE values to
recover above 2500 J/kg during peak heating to permit scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening storms to return on Wednesday.
Temperatures will return to nearly normal early August values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 310 am EDT Monday: The upper trough axis west of the
Appalachians on Thursday will cross the region through Friday, with
another round of above climo PoPs for diurnal showers and
thunderstorms expected both days. Temperatures will be near or just
below climo, with a bit more clouds under the passing trough.

A broad and flat central CONUS ridge will try to build east over the
weekend, but with persistent northwesterly flow and associated
shortwaves crossing the southeast. This will keep decent, diurnal,
scattered or better coverage of showers and thunderstorms going
through the weekend. Temperatures will return to near climo under
building heights aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: SHRA/TSRA are beginning to line up along the
southern mountains and Blue Ridge Escarpment as moist upslope flow
occurs ahead of TC Isaias. MVFR to IFR vsby is possible in the heavy
showers. Activity should increase in coverage in this area thru
the morning. Some mountain valley IFR fog/stratus exists aside from
the precip, and KAVL might see this fill back in between downpours
during the first hr or two of the period. Diurnal destabilization
will eventually lead to scattered SHRA/TSRA for the Piedmont as
well, mainly midday to mid-afternoon. Bases should be mostly VFR
except during heavier precip. Isaias will make its nearest pass
to our area tonight, with precip coverage waning following the
loss of heating, with the remaining chances being near KCLT/KHKY
for outer bands. It will also bring low-end gusts to KCLT in the
late evening to very early morning hours. As thicker cloud cover
clears out radiational stratus could form, mainly at KAVL and the
upstate sites.

Outlook: Daily rounds of afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA will likely
continue most of the week. Morning restrictions can't be ruled out.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
KGSP       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   65%     Med   68%     High  95%     Med   68%
KHKY       Med   75%     Low   59%     Low   54%     High  80%
KGMU       High  95%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NCZ033-049-050-
     501>506.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
408 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-040815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
408 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day
today, continuing to produce locally heavy rainfall. Isolated flash
flooding may occur where storms repeatedly affect the same location.
The thunderstorms will also produce dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and gusty winds. A few damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms.

As Tropical Storm Isaias makes its nearest pass to our region
tonight, breezy and occasionally gusty winds may develop. A few
trees could fall in areas where soils are saturated by the recent
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any reports of flooding to the National Weather
Service.

NCZ033-049-050-501>506-040815-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
408 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains and
adjacent foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day
today. In addition to the heavy rainfall mentioned in the Flash Flood
Watch, the thunderstorms will also produce dangerous cloud-to-
ground lightning and gusty winds. A few damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms.

As Tropical Storm Isaias makes its nearest pass to our region
tonight, breezy and occasionally gusty winds may develop. A few trees
could fall in areas where soils are saturated by the recent heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should relay any reports of flooding to the National Weather
Service.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
610 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ051-062-031045-
Swain NC-Macon NC-
610 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN
MACON AND SOUTH CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM EDT...

At 610 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles east of Robbinsville, or 5 miles north
of Nantahala Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Nantahala Lake, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Luada,
Wesser, Almond, Kyle, Nantahala, Alarka and Aquone.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

LAT...LON 3523 8369 3525 8370 3528 8368 3530 8370
      3532 8369 3534 8362 3537 8359 3541 8358
      3547 8349 3536 8333 3533 8334 3515 8362
      3522 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 224DEG 17KT 3527 8364

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ051-058-062-031115-
Graham NC-Swain NC-Macon NC-
623 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTH
CENTRAL SWAIN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

At 623 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Robbinsville, or 6 miles northeast of Nantahala Lake,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek, Smoky Mountains-Clingmans
Dome, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Fontana Lake, Wesser, Kyle,
Nantahala, Wayah Bald and Whittier.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8354 3557 8353 3545 8335 3542 8336
      3540 8334 3537 8333 3533 8334 3515 8358
      3524 8369 3525 8369 3526 8371 3525 8372
      3527 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 221DEG 15KT 3527 8361

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ058-031130-
Graham NC-
650 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT GRAHAM
COUNTY THROUGH 730 AM EDT...

At 647 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking the first storm in a
cluster of thunderstorms producing torrential rainfall 8 miles west
of Andrews, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Robbinsville, Santeetlah,
Fontana Village, Lake Santeetlah, Fontana Lake, Tapoco, Cheoah and
Deals Gap.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3546 8396 3545 8394
      3547 8390 3545 8386 3544 8381 3545 8380
      3544 8371 3525 8379 3525 8385 3522 8396
      3523 8400 3527 8401 3529 8403 3531 8402
      3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 212DEG 23KT 3524 8396

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ048-031200-
Madison NC-
726 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

At 725 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 10 miles northwest of Marshall, or over Hot
Springs, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hot Springs and Allenstand.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3593 8260 3579 8293 3583 8294 3584 8292
      3587 8292 3588 8290 3593 8292 3593 8290
      3594 8290 3595 8287 3595 8285 3592 8282
      3593 8281 3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277
      3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 235DEG 20KT 3588 8283

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
756 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ048-031230-
Madison NC-
756 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

At 755 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 11 miles north of Marshall, or 8 miles northeast
of Hot Springs, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Allenstand and Laurel.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3606 8263 3603 8260 3600 8261 3599 8260
      3597 8261 3596 8258 3594 8256 3585 8278
      3594 8280 3597 8278 3598 8279 3600 8278
      3602 8272 3605 8267 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 235DEG 20KT 3596 8270

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
829 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NCZ503-504-506-031315-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
829 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM EDT...

At 829 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Morganton, or 4 miles southwest of Glen Alpine,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Marion, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Table Rock,
Lake James, South Mountains State Park, Nebo, Glenwood and Oak Hill.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8178 3593 8178 3592 8174 3588 8171
      3586 8166 3582 8162 3581 8159 3561 8175
      3561 8176 3560 8177 3555 8192 3564 8202
      3596 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 211DEG 15KT 3568 8182

MOORE