River Flood Warning 35, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front is expected to move across the region
today providing a focus for additional showers and storms. The
front should move off to the east tonight, followed by dry air
moving in from the west on Friday. High pressure moving past to
the north should control our weather for most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM Thursday: The cold front is about half way thru
the forecast area attm, slowly pushing east. So all the heavy
rain has set up across the eastern zones. Rain rates/updrafts
have trended upward along the eastern edge of the precip band,
with highest rates from Greenwood County thru the Charlotte metro
area to the Triad. Flash flooding remains a real concern in those
areas. To the west, with the rain pulling out, have removed some
of the western zones from the FFA. The French Broad Valley and the
Northern Mountains have been left in the FFA due to ongoing runoff,
but will probably be able to be canceled with the next update.

From the 330 AM update...A leading shortwave trough exiting a broad
longwave 500 mb trough across the central CONUS will produce strong
upper divergence atop the forecast area thru this morning. The
mid and upper level support will be coupled with a slow-moving
cold front, which has already push into the NC mountains and will
continue to advance east thru the day. PWATs are still running at
record levels along and ahead of the front. And forecast soundings
show very deep warm cloud layers and unidirectional flow that
supports training convection. All this to say that the flood
threat is probably at its highest over the next 6-8 hours or so,
especially along and east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. No changes
were made to the Flood Watch with this update, but some of the
counties in the western and central NC mountains may be able to be
canceled with the next update. As a frontal band of heavy showers
(and possibly some isolated embedded tstms) will set up over the
I-77 corridor right around daybreak. Guidance shows an additional
1-3", with locally higher amounts.

Around noon...the heaviest convection should begin to exit to our
east, with Union County, NC, being the last to clear out. Low-level
flow behind the front will be fairly weak, and forecast soundings
show low clouds stubbornly holding on thru the aftn. The exceptions
will be in the western mountains and the Upper Savannah Valley,
which could see more sunshine before sunset. Temps will be tricky,
as too many breaks in the clouds could allow temps to shoot
up several degrees warmer than the current forecast. For now,
think they will range from the lower 70s northeast to upper 70s
southwest. Dewpts will come down from the lower 70s to mid 60s,
so it will still feel fairly humid.

Tonight...dry air continues to filter in from the west, but
low-level moisture lingers. It could be a good fog night for some
areas, but high pressure building in from the west and T.C. Eta
tracking along the GA/SC coast will keep a pressure gradient
atop the area. So still think it will be more of a low stratus
deck that forms with patchy fog, rather than widespread dense
fog tonight. Temps will start falling like usual around sunset,
but may not get below our record high minimums at any of our
climate sites before midnight. Lows will be mainly in the 50s,
still about 14-18 deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Thursday: Autumn is on track to return to the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia for the weekend. The
moisture gradient should be across the fcst area at daybreak Friday
and is expected to push east during the day with a modest WNW flow
at 850mb, ushering in the dry air associated with high pressure to
our west. A flat upper ridge will carry that surface high past to
the north through Saturday, giving us a classic autumn day with
temperatures right around normal. The high will migrate off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night, with some weak moisture return by
daybreak Sunday. Think the guidance is a little premature suggesting
that some upslope light precip might develop around daybreak Sunday
near the Escarpment. Prefer to keep the fcst dry for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Thursday: A broad upper trof moving east across
the Plains will push a cold front in our direction on Sunday, but
forcing and moisture return looks minimal. Guidance was generally
accepted with a chance of showers ramping up over the mtns/foothills
through the afternoon. The front should move quickly through the
region given such a low amplitude upper pattern, so we dry out
again Sunday night as the upper trof axis moves past. After that,
high pressure will build in from the west and dominate through
Tuesday, before a dry reinforcing front moves through followed
by the next surface high building in from the NW for the rest of
the period. Temperatures will be on the order of a category below
normal for most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: At time of 12z TAF issuance, a slow-moving
cold front had just passed thru KHKY and was about to cross the
Upstate TAF sites. Conditions have briefly improved in those sites
in the wake of heavy rain showers, but will likely return to IFR or
at least low MVFR for a few hours this morning. The front will pass
thru KCLT around 14z, shifting the winds from S to N. The line of
heavy showers and embedded tstms should start to shift east in the
14-17z time frame. Drying starts to take over after 18z, but not
enough to scour out the low cigs, which look to remain generally
MVFR, except for some scattering out in the Upstate and at KAVL. The
low cigs will likely persist tonight as well, with guidance showing
LIFR possible east of the mountains overnight. There is some hint
in the guidance that winds may become light enough to allow fog
to form, but overall, it looks mostly like a stratus event tonight.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will finally build in Friday, scouring
out the low clouds and any fog that's around Friday morning,
bringing back mostly VFR conditions thru the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       High  87%     High  88%     Med   77%     Med   79%
KGSP       Med   77%     High  87%     High  80%     Med   73%
KAVL       Med   79%     High  82%     High  88%     Med   74%
KHKY       Med   76%     High  94%     High  83%     Med   77%
KGMU       Med   73%     High  85%     Med   76%     Med   73%
KAND       Med   74%     High  89%     Med   73%     Med   73%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
              MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      77 1890     35 1968     56 1929     16 1894
                            1934
   KCLT      81 1989     43 1894     61 1915     24 1894
   KGSP      81 1989     43 1968     58 1935     19 1913

RECORDS FOR 11-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1964     32 1906     58 1929     13 1911
                1958
                1938
   KCLT      81 1931     40 1920     63 1879     21 2013
   KGSP      81 1909     40 1920     61 1929     20 1906

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-035>037-049-
     050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ003-006>009-
     012>014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ003-006>009-012>014-131100-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
131100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-019-131100-
Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this morning. The main
threats will be heavy rain that may result in localized flash
flooding, and a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. The showers
and storms should move to the east by early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
826 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE HUNTERSVILLE       35.36N 80.79W
11/12/2020                   MECKLENBURG        NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 3 VEHICLES IN FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
910 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      STATESVILLE             35.79N 80.89W
11/12/2020                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE FLOODED ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARION                  35.68N 82.01W
11/12/2020                   MCDOWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODED ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY. A LOCAL CAMPGROUND WAS
            EVACUATED AND A REPORT OF A LANDSLIDE.

&&

LACORTE

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