Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

309 
WGUS52 KGSP 121402
FFWGSP
NCC035-121700-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-201112T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
902 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR GREATER NEWTON, CONOVER AND HICKORY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Catawba County in the piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until noon EST.

* At 902 AM EST, Emergency management reported at least 20 roads 
  still closed due to flooding in the warned area. Flooding and/or 
  areas of high water should slowly recede through early afternoon 
  though as the heavy rain threat had ended.



  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Greater Newton, Conover and 
  Hickory. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER 
  GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Bethlehem, 
  Maiden, Claremont, Catawba, Mountain View, Lake Hickory, Lookout 
  Shoals Lake, Startown, Propst, Oxford, Bandys and Cooksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8153 3569 8142 3577 8136 3577 8134
      3578 8134 3579 8133 3583 8114 3579 8113
      3577 8109 3574 8106 3571 8106 3571 8103
      3554 8108

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

CSH

882 
WGUS52 KGSP 121655
FFWGSP
NCC035-122200-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-201112T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1155 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LOOKOUT SHOALS...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Catawba County in the piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 500 PM EST.

* At 1155 AM EST, Devastating, widespread structural flooding is 
  expected within the Carpenters Cove area and along Longfield St 
  near Shadeview Lane. Significant first-floor innundation is 
  ongoing and water rescues may be ongoing.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lookout Shoals. This is a 
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 8120 3569 8142 3577 8136 3577 8134
      3578 8134 3579 8133 3579 8131 3579 8130
      3581 8123 3581 8122 3582 8120 3583 8115
      3579 8113 3576 8109 3574 8106 3571 8106
      3570 8108 3572 8112

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

CSH

779 
WGUS52 KGSP 122157
FFWGSP
NCC035-130400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-201113T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
457 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LOOKOUT SHOALS...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Catawba County in the piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 1100 PM EST Thursday.

* At 457 PM EST, Lookout Shoals Lake crested above 108 feet earlier 
  this afternoon and is now slowly receding.  However, it remains 
  above Major Flood Stage and will not fall below Major Flood Stage 
  until around 8pm.  Thereafter, it will remain above Moderate Flood 
  Stage and significant flooding will continue into the overnight 
  hours.

* At 106 feet, devastating, widespread structural flooding in the 
  Carpenters Cove community and near the intersection of Longfield 
  St and Shadeview Ln is ongoing. Significant inundation of crawl 
  spaces and basements is underway. Unelevated, first-floor flooding 
  is beginning. Evacuations should be complete, but water rescuses 
  may be ongoing.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lookout Shoals. This is a 
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding around Lookout Shoals
           Lake

  SOURCE...Emergency management and automated streamgauges

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           the Lookout Shoals shoreline, especially in the
           Carpenters Cove community will continue into the late
           evening hours.  Residents need to avoid these areas
           until lake levels have fully receded.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Catawba and Lookout Shoals Lake.

* For more information on lake levels or dam releases, people are 
  encouraged to visit http://lakes.duke-energy.com or call 1-800-829-
  5253.  

* Residents along Lookout Shoals Lake should contact Catawba County 
  Emergency Management to update their contact information using the 
  following direct link to their Community Alert System web page at: 
  www.catawbacountync.gov/online-services/community-alert-system/

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and 
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are 
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8116 3581 8114 3579 8113 3576 8109
      3574 8106 3572 8106 3571 8106 3571 8108
      3572 8109

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

$$

JMP

434 
WGUS72 KGSP 130138
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
838 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

NCC035-130148-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-201113T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-
838 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

Lookout Shoals Lake has fallen below the Major Flood Stage of 106.0 
feet and is falling rapidly.  Additional rainfall will not occur and 
the lake is not expected to rise back above Major Flood Stage.  
However, the lake will remain above Minor Flood Stage for the next 
several hours.  Therefore, Flash Flood Emergency will be cancelled 
and replaced with a Flood Warning.

LAT...LON 3579 8116 3581 8114 3579 8113 3576 8109
      3574 8106 3572 8106 3571 8106 3571 8108
      3572 8109

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front is expected to move across the region
today providing a focus for additional showers and storms. The
front should move off to the east tonight, followed by dry air
moving in from the west on Friday. High pressure moving past to
the north should control our weather for most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday: A leading shortwave trough exiting a broad
longwave 500 mb trough across the central CONUS will produce strong
upper divergence atop the forecast area thru this morning. The
mid and upper level support will be coupled with a slow-moving
cold front, which has already push into the NC mountains and will
continue to advance east thru the day. PWATs are still running at
record levels along and ahead of the front. And forecast soundings
show very deep warm cloud layers and unidirectional flow that
supports training convection. All this to say that the flood
threat is probably at its highest over the next 6-8 hours or so,
especially along and east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. No changes
were made to the Flood Watch with this update, but some of the
counties in the western and central NC mountains may be able to be
canceled with the next update. As a frontal band of heavy showers
(and possibly some isolated embedded tstms) will set up over the
I-77 corridor right around daybreak. Guidance shows an additional
1-3", with locally higher amounts.

Around noon...the heaviest convection should begin to exit to our
east, with Union County, NC, being the last to clear out. Low-level
flow behind the front will be fairly weak, and forecast soundings
show low clouds stubbornly holding on thru the aftn. The exceptions
will be in the western mountains and the Upper Savannah Valley,
which could see more sunshine before sunset. Temps will be tricky,
as too many breaks in the clouds could allow temps to shoot
up several degrees warmer than the current forecast. For now,
think they will range from the lower 70s northeast to upper 70s
southwest. Dewpts will come down from the lower 70s to mid 60s,
so it will still feel fairly humid.

Tonight...dry air continues to filter in from the west, but
low-level moisture lingers. It could be a good fog night for some
areas, but high pressure building in from the west and T.C. Eta
tracking along the GA/SC coast will keep a pressure gradient
atop the area. So still think it will be more of a low stratus
deck that forms with patchy fog, rather than widespread dense
fog tonight. Temps will start falling like usual around sunset,
but may not get below our record high minimums at any of our
climate sites before midnight. Lows will be mainly in the 50s,
still about 14-18 deg above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 AM EST Thursday: Autumn is on track to return to the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia for the weekend. The
moisture gradient should be across the fcst area at daybreak Friday
and is expected to push east during the day with a modest WNW flow
at 850mb, ushering in the dry air associated with high pressure to
our west. A flat upper ridge will carry that surface high past to
the north through Saturday, giving us a classic autumn day with
temperatures right around normal. The high will migrate off the
Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night, with some weak moisture return by
daybreak Sunday. Think the guidance is a little premature suggesting
that some upslope light precip might develop around daybreak Sunday
near the Escarpment. Prefer to keep the fcst dry for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Thursday: A broad upper trof moving east across
the Plains will push a cold front in our direction on Sunday, but
forcing and moisture return looks minimal. Guidance was generally
accepted with a chance of showers ramping up over the mtns/foothills
through the afternoon. The front should move quickly through the
region given such a low amplitude upper pattern, so we dry out
again Sunday night as the upper trof axis moves past. After that,
high pressure will build in from the west and dominate through
Tuesday, before a dry reinforcing front moves through followed
by the next surface high building in from the NW for the rest of
the period. Temperatures will be on the order of a category below
normal for most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A slow-moving cold front is interacting
with a very moist, tropical air mass across the area to start
the 06z TAFs. Periods of heavy rain showers and isolated tstms
possible at all sites thru 12z, then a gradual shift from west to
east from 12-18z time frame. Drying takes over after 18z, but not
enough to scour out the low cigs, which look to remain generally
IFR to MVFR. The low cigs will likely persist tonight as well, with
guidance showing LIFR possible east of the mountains overnight. The
frontal passage will bring winds around from a light S/SW to N/NE,
clearing KCLT around 17z. There is some hint in the guidance that
winds may become light enough to allow fog to form, but overall,
it looks mostly like a stratus event tonight.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will finally build in Friday, scouring
out the low clouds and any fog that's around Friday morning,
bringing back mostly VFR conditions thru the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High  81%     High  81%     Med   78%     High  81%
KGSP       Med   78%     Med   70%     High  87%     Med   64%
KAVL       Med   79%     Med   74%     Med   78%     High  84%
KHKY       High  80%     Med   67%     Med   70%     Med   71%
KGMU       Med   78%     Med   70%     High  85%     Low   52%
KAND       Med   78%     Med   74%     High  86%     Med   66%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
              MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      77 1890     35 1968     56 1929     16 1894
                            1934
   KCLT      81 1989     43 1894     61 1915     24 1894
   KGSP      81 1989     43 1968     58 1935     19 1913

RECORDS FOR 11-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1964     32 1906     58 1929     13 1911
                1958
                1938
   KCLT      81 1931     40 1920     63 1879     21 2013
   KGSP      81 1909     40 1920     61 1929     20 1906

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ001>003-005>009-
     012>014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ003-006>009-012>014-131100-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
131100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-019-131100-
Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
547 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this morning. The main
threats will be heavy rain that may result in localized flash
flooding, and a few cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. The showers
and storms should move to the east by early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW PATTERSON         36.04N 81.60W
11/12/2020                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HEAVY RAINFALL CREATED A LANDSLIDE 30 FEET WIDE AND 2
            FEET DEEP. THE LANDSLIDE HAS COVERED AND CLOSED KIRBY
            MOUNTAIN ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 321. SEVERAL OTHER ROADS
            ACROSS THE COUNTY HAVE ALSO BEEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KRENTZ