River Flood Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Today-tonight...the forecast area is caught in between an upper
level high pressure area over eastern Kansas and a trough of low
pressure centered north of Washington state putting us in southwest
flow aloft. A plume of monsoonal moisture in the 700-300mb layer is
expected to reach the northwest 1/3 or so of the forecast area
during the early to late afternoon hours, continuing through about
midnight before retreating to the northwest afterward as the upper
high center shifts slightly west. The combination of afternoon
heating and some increase in upper jet support will generate
scattered thunderstorms from around 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) through
about midnight MDT (1 AM CDT). Precipitable water values in the
areas expecting convection range from around 1.5 to almost 2 inches.
0-6km winds are expected to be around 25 to 30 mph from the
southwest which should help keep any storms moving and lowering the
flash flood threat. The exception will be across northeast and
eastern Yuma county, much of central and southern Dundy county and
northwest Cheyenne county KS where a nearly stationary MCS produced
confirmed rainfall amounts of up to 7 inches with higher amounts
very possible. If model trends suggest any appreciable rainfall in
these areas later today and tonight a Flash Flood Watch may be
needed. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s,
exception possibly being in the areas mentioned above where
extensive rainfall fell, these areas could see highs several degrees
lower. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 60s to
low 70s.

Saturday-Saturday night...not much change in the upper level pattern
with an upper high anchored along the Kansas/Missouri border. The
next batch of monsoonal moisture arrives across the northwest 2/3 of
the area during the mid afternoon through midnight hours with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Precipitable water values around
1.4 inches during the afternoon increase toward 1.9 inches during
the evening with 0-6km winds in the 20 to 25 mph range. Will need to
continue monitoring the threat for flash flooding, especially for
parts of Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) counties. High temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values are currently expected to be a few degrees either side of 105
east of a line from Trenton to Gove. A Heat Advisory may be needed.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday-Sunday night...a cold front moves south through the area
during the day with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper
80s across far eastern Colorado to the mid 90s around Hill City.
Precipitation chances increase in the afternoon with thunderstorms
and a threat for locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values
increase into the 1.5 to 2.0 range. For the overnight hours
disagreement on the handling of the post frontal moisture arise with
the models trending toward drier air at the mid levels and
keeping the lower levels more saturated. Not too sure about the
pretty high pops and qpf at this point but it continues the trend
of the past several days so we'll take another look a few more
times with each updated model run. Low temperatures are expected
to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Relief from the heat is on the way for the Tri-State area in the
extended forecast. Monday, an upper ridge will be situated over
the Rockies and on north into the Big Horns. High pressure will be
in place over the Desert Southwest, and an upper low will
centered over Western Ontario. Through the day, the low will dive
east-southeast toward the northern Great Lakes. An attendant cold
front will extend southwest into Central Kansas. This is a little
faster than previous model runs. Expected high temperatures will
be notably cooler, ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s. Monsoon
moisture coming into the region and the placement of the front
will aide in the continuation of showers and thunderstorms through
the day.

The upper ridge will shift east, over the Tri-State area on Tuesday.
 Temperatures will rebound into the 80s across the region.  This
will begin a gradual warming trend which will continue through the
remainder of the week.  Expected high temperatures by Friday will
range from the mid-80s to low 90s.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected as a series
of shortwaves move through the region.  Currently have low
confidence in the possibility of widespread rainfall across the
region during this time.  The one exception to this is Wednesday
when a more pronounced shortwave trough moves across the Tri-State
area.  Mid-level moisture is expected to increase as the disturbance
moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
South winds increase shortly after sunrise with gusts over 30kts
expected, mainly late this morning through the entire afternoon.
For tonight breezy south winds expected through about midnight
then south to southwest at speeds 11kts or less. We will monitor
KGLD for a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, at this
time coverage and confidence too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Our radar estimated up to 10 inches of rain fell across parts of
eastern Yuma, western and southern Dundy and north central
Cheyenne (KS) counties the past 18 hours or so. Additional
rainfall is expected the next 3 days as monsoonal moisture remains
in those areas. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed if confidence is
high enough that any appreciable rainfall is expected in those
areas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...99

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