Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Today-tonight...the forecast area is caught in between an upper
level high pressure area over eastern Kansas and a trough of low
pressure centered north of Washington state putting us in southwest
flow aloft. A plume of monsoonal moisture in the 700-300mb layer is
expected to reach the northwest 1/3 or so of the forecast area
during the early to late afternoon hours, continuing through about
midnight before retreating to the northwest afterward as the upper
high center shifts slightly west. The combination of afternoon
heating and some increase in upper jet support will generate
scattered thunderstorms from around 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) through
about midnight MDT (1 AM CDT). Precipitable water values in the
areas expecting convection range from around 1.5 to almost 2 inches.
0-6km winds are expected to be around 25 to 30 mph from the
southwest which should help keep any storms moving and lowering the
flash flood threat. The exception will be across northeast and
eastern Yuma county, much of central and southern Dundy county and
northwest Cheyenne county KS where a nearly stationary MCS produced
confirmed rainfall amounts of up to 7 inches with higher amounts
very possible. If model trends suggest any appreciable rainfall in
these areas later today and tonight a Flash Flood Watch may be
needed. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s,
exception possibly being in the areas mentioned above where
extensive rainfall fell, these areas could see highs several degrees
lower. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 60s to
low 70s.

Saturday-Saturday night...not much change in the upper level pattern
with an upper high anchored along the Kansas/Missouri border. The
next batch of monsoonal moisture arrives across the northwest 2/3 of
the area during the mid afternoon through midnight hours with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Precipitable water values around
1.4 inches during the afternoon increase toward 1.9 inches during
the evening with 0-6km winds in the 20 to 25 mph range. Will need to
continue monitoring the threat for flash flooding, especially for
parts of Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) counties. High temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values are currently expected to be a few degrees either side of 105
east of a line from Trenton to Gove. A Heat Advisory may be needed.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the low 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday-Sunday night...a cold front moves south through the area
during the day with high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper
80s across far eastern Colorado to the mid 90s around Hill City.
Precipitation chances increase in the afternoon with thunderstorms
and a threat for locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water values
increase into the 1.5 to 2.0 range. For the overnight hours
disagreement on the handling of the post frontal moisture arise with
the models trending toward drier air at the mid levels and
keeping the lower levels more saturated. Not too sure about the
pretty high pops and qpf at this point but it continues the trend
of the past several days so we'll take another look a few more
times with each updated model run. Low temperatures are expected
to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Relief from the heat is on the way for the Tri-State area in the
extended forecast. Monday, an upper ridge will be situated over
the Rockies and on north into the Big Horns. High pressure will be
in place over the Desert Southwest, and an upper low will
centered over Western Ontario. Through the day, the low will dive
east-southeast toward the northern Great Lakes. An attendant cold
front will extend southwest into Central Kansas. This is a little
faster than previous model runs. Expected high temperatures will
be notably cooler, ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s. Monsoon
moisture coming into the region and the placement of the front
will aide in the continuation of showers and thunderstorms through
the day.

The upper ridge will shift east, over the Tri-State area on Tuesday.
 Temperatures will rebound into the 80s across the region.  This
will begin a gradual warming trend which will continue through the
remainder of the week.  Expected high temperatures by Friday will
range from the mid-80s to low 90s.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected as a series
of shortwaves move through the region.  Currently have low
confidence in the possibility of widespread rainfall across the
region during this time.  The one exception to this is Wednesday
when a more pronounced shortwave trough moves across the Tri-State
area.  Mid-level moisture is expected to increase as the disturbance
moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
South winds increase shortly after sunrise with gusts over 30kts
expected, mainly late this morning through the entire afternoon.
For tonight breezy south winds expected through about midnight
then south to southwest at speeds 11kts or less. We will monitor
KGLD for a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, at this
time coverage and confidence too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 420 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Our radar estimated up to 10 inches of rain fell across parts of
eastern Yuma, western and southern Dundy and north central
Cheyenne (KS) counties the past 18 hours or so. Additional
rainfall is expected the next 3 days as monsoonal moisture remains
in those areas. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed if confidence is
high enough that any appreciable rainfall is expected in those
areas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...99

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N HAIGLER             40.12N 101.95W
07/23/2020                   DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            PICTURE AND VIDEO OF WATER FLOWING OVER
            ROAD.

0902 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/23/2020                   YUMA               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF STANDING WATER ON 385.

0949 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAIGLER                 40.01N 101.94W
07/23/2020  M3.80 INCH       DUNDY              NE   MESONET

1039 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAIGLER                 40.01N 101.94W
07/23/2020  M6.78 INCH       DUNDY              NE   MESONET

            STILL RAINING HEAVILY.

1040 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/23/2020  M4.80 INCH       YUMA               CO   MESONET

            STILL RAINING HEAVILY.

1156 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW PARKS              40.03N 101.75W
07/23/2020                   DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF SECTION OF US 34 FROM 2 MILES WEST
            OF BENKELMEN TO COLORADO STATE LINE CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING.

0122 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E HAIGLER             40.02N 101.87W
07/24/2020                   DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF WATER ON ROAD AT US HIGHWAY 34 AND
            GREEN ROAD.

0148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/24/2020                   YUMA               CO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            US 34 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT WRAY DUE
            TO FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WATER IN AREAS.

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      12 NNE WHEELER          39.94N 101.66W
07/24/2020                   CHEYENNE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF THE SOUND OF TREES SNAPPING IN THE
            RIVER AROUND THE ROAD 22 BRIDGE. HEIGHT OF
            FLOODWATER WAS UNKNOWN AT THE TIME OF THE
            REPORT.

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 N WHEELER            39.91N 101.70W
07/24/2020                   CHEYENNE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF HACKBERRY CREEK FLOODING WHERE IT
            MEETS WITH THE REPUBLICAN RIVER. FLOODING IS
            COMING FROM THE WEST.

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 N SAINT FRANCIS       39.89N 101.79W
07/24/2020                   CHEYENNE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF FLOODING AROUND ROAD W AND RS115.

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NNE WHEELER          39.95N 101.64W
07/24/2020                   CHEYENNE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS REPUBLICAN RIVER IS OUT OF ITS
            BANKS AND BACKFILLING TO THE SOUTH AT ROAD
            23 AND THE RIVER.

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 N WHEELER            39.91N 101.71W
07/24/2020                   CHEYENNE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS HACKBERRY CREEK IS FLOODING.

0627 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HAIGLER                 40.01N 101.94W
07/24/2020  M9.26 INCH       DUNDY              NE   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
            THIS MORNING.

0627 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW BLAKEMAN          39.84N 101.13W
07/24/2020  M0.20 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND
            THAT THE RAIN STARTED AROUND 2:12 A.M. CDT.

0630 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW BENKELMAN         40.03N 101.63W
07/24/2020                   DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            FLOWING WATER OVER AVENUE 333 AT DOANE
            BRIDGE APPROXIMATELY 4 FT IN DEPTH. ROAD IS
            CURRENTLY CLOSED FROM HWY 34 TO RIVER ROAD.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURES.

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/24/2020  M5.14 INCH       YUMA               CO   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
            THIS MORNING.

0631 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW WRAY              40.10N 102.24W
07/24/2020  M3.41 INCH       YUMA               CO   AWOS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
            THIS MORNING.

0729 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW BENKELMAN         40.04N 101.63W
07/24/2020                   DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            RIVER ROAD CLOSED FROM DOANE (AVENUE 333
            INTERSECTION) TO PARKS (AVENUE 328
            INTERSECTION) DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0729 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E PARKS               40.04N 101.72W
07/24/2020                   DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            AVENUE 328 CLOSED DUE TO WATER GREATER THAN
            A 4 FT DEPTH FLOWING OVER THE ROAD. WATER IS
            COVERING FENCE POSTS ON THE SIDE OF THE
            ROAD.

0733 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BENKELMAN               40.05N 101.53W
07/24/2020  M1.80 INCH       DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            TOTAL RAINFALL MEASURED FROM STORM. REPORTED
            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0736 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E SAINT FRANCIS       39.77N 101.78W
07/24/2020  M0.48 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

0737 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N PARKS               40.11N 101.73W
07/24/2020  M7.60 INCH       DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            MEASURED OVER LAST 24 HOURS. REPORTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0737 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W PARKS               40.03N 101.82W
07/24/2020                   DUNDY              NE   PUBLIC

            EASTBOUND AMTRAK TRAIN STRANDED BETWEEN
            PARKS AND HAIGLER DUE TO WASHED OUT RAILROAD
            TRACKS.

0745 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW PARKS             40.03N 101.77W
07/24/2020  M9.50 INCH       DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAINFALL MEASURED OVER LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW WRAY               40.03N 102.29W
07/24/2020  M4.60 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL MEASUREMENT. REPORTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KMK