Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to slowly
move toward the I-20 corridor, sending an outflow boundary towards
the Metroplex. The past several runs of the WoFS and high res
models keep this activity confined to areas mainly along and north
of the I-20 corridor, generally weakening over the next few hours
as CIN increases across the region. Given the slow storm motions,
a threat for flash flooding will be a concern, especially for
areas west of the I-35 corridor and along/north of HWY 380.
Otherwise, gusty winds and small hail will be a threat with the
stronger cells. Central Texas will remain free of any
thunderstorms early this morning, but cloud cover will increase
due to the thunderstorm complex over North Texas and an
increasing low-level jet advecting stratus clouds.

Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy
southerly winds with highs in the 80s. There may be some isolated
showers Saturday morning, but overall the day should remain
precipitation free. Similar to previous days, dryline convection
is expected to develop across West Texas Saturday afternoon and
may approach our far western counties Saturday evening. There is
still some uncertainty as to whether these storms will maintain
their intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor, but some gusty
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out Saturday night.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/
/Saturday night through Next Friday/

As advertised over the last couple days...multiple rounds of showers
and storms are in the forecast least till the end of next week if
not longer. There will be a flooding threat associated with this
multi-day rain event. It won't rain all day, every day; but this
weather pattern will support periods of heavy rain across North
and Central TX. Otherwise, temperatures won't vary too much in
the next 7 days as they will stay near or just above normal for
late May.

By Saturday evening, it appears that the convection will remain just
to our west/northwest along the dry line. Some of that activity may
try to reach some of our counties, but we expect a weakening trend.
It is not until Sunday and Monday, where ample synoptic pattern
forcing, mid-level disturbances and plenty of moisture available
will trigger more widespread showers and storms.

Another shot of energy will trigger a surface low / front on Tuesday
that will enhance the flooding concerns as periods of heavy rain
will be possible. There's still some uncertainties on the exact
location of the highest QPF, but the overall rainfall totals through
Tuesday will range from 3-5 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
It is important to note that the extended guidance is in good
agreement that our area will stay in the moisture convergence,
good instability and large scale lift zone. In addition to having
PWAT values in the 1.5-1.7 range. We will also have to watch for
those rainfall rates, since most of the region have received over
150-200% of normal precipitation over the past 7 days. Urban, side
roads, construction zones, low-lying areas, etc, will likely be
the first to be see impact of flooding. Excessive runoff will also
result in the flooding of creeks and streams.

For the rest of the week, both GFS and ECMWF keep a closed upper
level low sitting over the Lone Star state at least thru Friday,
giving ample synoptic ascent for additional rounds of showers and
storms. Coverage of showers and storms will depend on the upper
low's location and speed. We will continue to watch the trends
over the few days as these additional rounds of rain may aggravate
flooding issues in the areas that receive the highest QPF totals
over the next 3-4 days. Stay tuned!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cluster of slow moving thunderstorms continues to encroach the
Metroplex terminals early this morning. An outflow boundary has
resulted in northerly winds with gusts close to 40 knots across
the Metroplex. Lightning will be an issue over the next 2-3 hours
as storms continue to slowly move southeast and weaken.

An increasing low-level jet will aid in another round of MVFR
ceilings developing close to 8-9Z at ACT and closer to 11Z across
the Metroplex. These ceilings should lift by late Saturday morning
and VFR should prevail through the remainder of the forecast
period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue, but wind
speeds will increase Saturday afternoon to near 15 knots and gusts
closer to 20 knots. Dryline convection should develop late
Saturday afternoon across West Texas and may approach the late
Saturday evening.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  84  68  81  67 /  20  60  50  70  60
Waco                71  83  67  80  67 /  20  70  50  60  50
Paris               69  82  68  78  65 /  10  60  60  70  60
Denton              70  83  67  80  65 /  30  60  60  70  60
McKinney            70  83  68  80  66 /  20  60  60  70  60
Dallas              72  84  69  81  68 /  20  60  50  70  60
Terrell             71  84  67  80  66 /  20  70  50  70  60
Corsicana           72  83  69  79  68 /  20  70  50  70  50
Temple              72  82  67  80  67 /  20  60  50  60  50
Mineral Wells       69  82  65  79  63 /  30  60  50  70  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

22/25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Red River and Big
County this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes are possible in these regions.

Shortly after developing, these storms should form into a complex
that moves south and southeast with a threat for damaging winds and
hail. The main threat for severe weather should remain along and
north of I-20, although a damaging wind threat exists as far south as
a line extending from Killeen to Waco to Canton.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Thunderstorms will be possible each day as an unsettled weather
pattern prevails over the region. Heavy rainfall will be the greatest
concern, with flooding issues arising as early as Sunday and Monday.
Excessive rain may result in the flooding of creeks and streams.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and tonight, generally
along and north of I-20.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     HAIL             3 WNW JACKSBORO         33.24N 98.21W
05/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       JACK               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WATER OVER
            THE ROADWAY ON HWY 281.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WHITESBORO        33.66N 96.92W
05/22/2020                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO POWER POLES AND TREES
            IN WHITESBORO.

&&

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

TXZ103-104-230630-
Collin TX-Denton TX-
1232 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DENTON AND COLLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Celina, or 14 miles north of Frisco, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plano, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Denton, Richardson, Lewisville,
Allen, Flower Mound, Wylie, The Colony, Sachse, Corinth, Highland
Village, Lake Dallas, Lake Lewisville, Little Elm, Murphy, Prosper
and Anna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3342 9688 3341 9684 3340 9639 3298 9638
      3299 9685 3306 9711 3342 9699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 277DEG 42KT 3335 9686

Godwin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DECATUR                 33.24N 97.59W
05/23/2020                   WISE               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES
            IN DECATUR DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW SADLER            33.77N 96.89W
05/23/2020                   GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS METAL ROOF TORN
            OFF MANUFACTURED HOME NEAR US377/FM901 NEAR
            SANDUSKY.

&&

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

TXZ094-095-230630-
Lamar TX-Fannin TX-
107 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND
NORTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 107 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Dodd City, or 14 miles northeast of Bonham, moving
east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Honey Grove, Dodd City, Windom and Toco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3391 9564 3357 9563 3357 9612 3384 9612
      3384 9605 3386 9603 3384 9602 3385 9600
      3387 9600 3385 9598 3386 9595 3389 9594
      3384 9583 3386 9581 3384 9577 3385 9576
      3388 9576 3390 9575 3388 9570 3391 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 259DEG 23KT 3375 9601

Godwin