Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
809 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Evening/

A remnant outflow boundary located along the Red River provided
enough lift as instability increased this afternoon, resulting in
strong/severe supercells developing just along the Red River and
our far northwestern counties. A few more convective attempts
have been made along and north of I-20 near Stephens County and
areas north, but the main focus is near the Red River this
evening. The 00Z FWD sounding reveals an uncapped and unstable
environment with CAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg, steep lapse
rates near 7-7.5 C/km, and 0-6km shear near 35 knots. Given the
favorable environment, a threat for large hail and damaging winds
will be likely, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
There will also be a potential for heavy rain given the slow storm
motions already seen this afternoon and high PW values (1.4
inches in the 00Z FWD sounding) in place. The WoFS highlights the
potential for heavy rain amounts upwards of 2-3 inches that may
cause flash flooding issues north of the I-20 corridor and near
the I-35 corridor this evening.

The supercells are expected to congeal into a complex or line of
thunderstorms later this evening and move southeast overnight.
There is still a bit of uncertainty as to whether the line will
maintain its strength as it moves towards Central Texas, but it
may be on a downward trend after midnight with a threat mainly for
gusty winds and small hail. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region will remain cloudy as an increasing low-level jet
transports moisture towards the Red River.

Persistent southerly flow and overcast skies will keep Saturday
mild and humid across the region. There will be low rain chances,
but any showers/storms should be isolated in nature.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline across
West Texas Saturday afternoon and may attempt to approach the
western zones late Saturday evening.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/
/Saturday night through Next Friday/

As advertised over the last couple days...multiple rounds of showers
and storms are in the forecast least till the end of next week if
not longer. There will be a flooding threat associated with this
multi-day rain event. It won't rain all day, every day; but this
weather pattern will support periods of heavy rain across North
and Central TX. Otherwise, temperatures won't vary too much in
the next 7 days as they will stay near or just above normal for
late May.

By Saturday evening, it appears that the convection will remain just
to our west/northwest along the dry line. Some of that activity may
try to reach some of our counties, but we expect a weakening trend.
It is not until Sunday and Monday, where ample synoptic pattern
forcing, mid-level disturbances and plenty of moisture available
will trigger more widespread showers and storms.

Another shot of energy will trigger a surface low / front on Tuesday
that will enhance the flooding concerns as periods of heavy rain
will be possible. There's still some uncertainties on the exact
location of the highest QPF, but the overall rainfall totals through
Tuesday will range from 3-5 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
It is important to note that the extended guidance is in good
agreement that our area will stay in the moisture convergence,
good instability and large scale lift zone. In addition to having
PWAT values in the 1.5-1.7 range. We will also have to watch for
those rainfall rates, since most of the region have received over
150-200% of normal precipitation over the past 7 days. Urban, side
roads, construction zones, low-lying areas, etc, will likely be
the first to be see impact of flooding. Excessive runoff will also
result in the flooding of creeks and streams.

For the rest of the week, both GFS and ECMWF keep a closed upper
level low sitting over the Lone Star state at least thru Friday,
giving ample synoptic ascent for additional rounds of showers and
storms. Coverage of showers and storms will depend on the upper
low's location and speed. We will continue to watch the trends
over the few days as these additional rounds of rain may aggravate
flooding issues in the areas that receive the highest QPF totals
over the next 3-4 days. Stay tuned!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms late
this evening and tonight. A few thunderstorms have developed
across the northwest cornerpost this afternoon and these storms
are expected to move southeast toward the Metroplex terminals
after 1-2Z. There is still uncertainty as to whether this activity
will arrive at Waco late tonight, but we'll continue to monitor
trends and adjust in subsequent TAF issuances. Stratus clouds
should return closer to daybreak Saturday, but there is a chance
that the storms tonight keep the terminals VFR for most of the
overnight period. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings should lift by midday
Saturday and southerly winds will increase with gusts close to 20
knots possible.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  88  72  84  68 /  50  20  20  60  50
Waco                73  88  73  83  67 /  30  30  20  70  50
Paris               70  86  69  82  68 /  40  20  10  60  60
Denton              68  87  71  83  67 /  50  20  30  60  60
McKinney            70  87  71  83  68 /  40  20  20  60  60
Dallas              73  89  73  84  69 /  40  20  20  60  50
Terrell             72  87  71  84  67 /  40  20  20  70  50
Corsicana           72  87  73  83  69 /  30  20  20  70  50
Temple              73  89  73  82  67 /  20  30  20  60  50
Mineral Wells       69  88  69  82  65 /  60  20  30  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

22/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Red River and Big
County this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes are possible in these regions.

Shortly after developing, these storms should form into a complex
that moves south and southeast with a threat for damaging winds and
hail. The main threat for severe weather should remain along and
north of I-20, although a damaging wind threat exists as far south as
a line extending from Killeen to Waco to Canton.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Thunderstorms will be possible each day as an unsettled weather
pattern prevails over the region. Heavy rainfall will be the greatest
concern, with flooding issues arising as early as Sunday and Monday.
Excessive rain may result in the flooding of creeks and streams.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and tonight, generally
along and north of I-20.

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