River Flood Warning 95, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to slowly
move toward the I-20 corridor, sending an outflow boundary towards
the Metroplex. The past several runs of the WoFS and high res
models keep this activity confined to areas mainly along and north
of the I-20 corridor, generally weakening over the next few hours
as CIN increases across the region. Given the slow storm motions,
a threat for flash flooding will be a concern, especially for
areas west of the I-35 corridor and along/north of HWY 380.
Otherwise, gusty winds and small hail will be a threat with the
stronger cells. Central Texas will remain free of any
thunderstorms early this morning, but cloud cover will increase
due to the thunderstorm complex over North Texas and an
increasing low-level jet advecting stratus clouds.

Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy
southerly winds with highs in the 80s. There may be some isolated
showers Saturday morning, but overall the day should remain
precipitation free. Similar to previous days, dryline convection
is expected to develop across West Texas Saturday afternoon and
may approach our far western counties Saturday evening. There is
still some uncertainty as to whether these storms will maintain
their intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor, but some gusty
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out Saturday night.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020/
/Saturday night through Next Friday/

As advertised over the last couple days...multiple rounds of showers
and storms are in the forecast least till the end of next week if
not longer. There will be a flooding threat associated with this
multi-day rain event. It won't rain all day, every day; but this
weather pattern will support periods of heavy rain across North
and Central TX. Otherwise, temperatures won't vary too much in
the next 7 days as they will stay near or just above normal for
late May.

By Saturday evening, it appears that the convection will remain just
to our west/northwest along the dry line. Some of that activity may
try to reach some of our counties, but we expect a weakening trend.
It is not until Sunday and Monday, where ample synoptic pattern
forcing, mid-level disturbances and plenty of moisture available
will trigger more widespread showers and storms.

Another shot of energy will trigger a surface low / front on Tuesday
that will enhance the flooding concerns as periods of heavy rain
will be possible. There's still some uncertainties on the exact
location of the highest QPF, but the overall rainfall totals through
Tuesday will range from 3-5 inches, with isolated higher amounts.
It is important to note that the extended guidance is in good
agreement that our area will stay in the moisture convergence,
good instability and large scale lift zone. In addition to having
PWAT values in the 1.5-1.7 range. We will also have to watch for
those rainfall rates, since most of the region have received over
150-200% of normal precipitation over the past 7 days. Urban, side
roads, construction zones, low-lying areas, etc, will likely be
the first to be see impact of flooding. Excessive runoff will also
result in the flooding of creeks and streams.

For the rest of the week, both GFS and ECMWF keep a closed upper
level low sitting over the Lone Star state at least thru Friday,
giving ample synoptic ascent for additional rounds of showers and
storms. Coverage of showers and storms will depend on the upper
low's location and speed. We will continue to watch the trends
over the few days as these additional rounds of rain may aggravate
flooding issues in the areas that receive the highest QPF totals
over the next 3-4 days. Stay tuned!

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cluster of slow moving thunderstorms continues to encroach the
Metroplex terminals early this morning. An outflow boundary has
resulted in northerly winds with gusts close to 40 knots across
the Metroplex. Lightning will be an issue over the next 2-3 hours
as storms continue to slowly move southeast and weaken.

An increasing low-level jet will aid in another round of MVFR
ceilings developing close to 8-9Z at ACT and closer to 11Z across
the Metroplex. These ceilings should lift by late Saturday morning
and VFR should prevail through the remainder of the forecast
period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue, but wind
speeds will increase Saturday afternoon to near 15 knots and gusts
closer to 20 knots. Dryline convection should develop late
Saturday afternoon across West Texas and may approach the late
Saturday evening.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  84  68  81  67 /  20  60  50  70  60
Waco                71  83  67  80  67 /  20  70  50  60  50
Paris               69  82  68  78  65 /  10  60  60  70  60
Denton              70  83  67  80  65 /  30  60  60  70  60
McKinney            70  83  68  80  66 /  20  60  60  70  60
Dallas              72  84  69  81  68 /  20  60  50  70  60
Terrell             71  84  67  80  66 /  20  70  50  70  60
Corsicana           72  83  69  79  68 /  20  70  50  70  50
Temple              72  82  67  80  67 /  20  60  50  60  50
Mineral Wells       69  82  65  79  63 /  30  60  50  70  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

22/25

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