Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
With todays main feature being a broad sfc low across the region and
marginal instability with already scattered diurnally driven
convection, the rest of the afternoon into overnight could have
additional outflow driven development. Greatest chance for some
strong to isolated severe will be this afternoon into evening with
strong to damaging winds and hail as main threats in addition to
locally heavy rainfall with little steering flow.

Upper low center is progged to advect slightly more eastward into
the TN Valley Thursday and increase some deep layer moisture across
the region (some PWATs could get near 2 inches), so have continued
to trend to likely pops for more numerous/widespread shower/storm
coverage. With little shear in the overall column and again marginal
CAPE values expected, should see some strong to isolated severe
again maximized by daytime heating followed by remnant outflows.

Max temps Thursday a few degrees cooler than today given expected
increased moisture/pops but still slightly above climo norms.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Unsettled weather will persist into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Upper level pattern remains active through the period. A longwave
trough sets up across the Gulf States and remains in place through
early next week. Several strong perturbations in the flow move
through the base of the trough, each with the potential to aid in
increasing the coverage of precip/storms. Models are progging a weak
boundary to set up across the CWA for much of the period. Waves of
low pressure will move east along the boundary, aided by the upper
level support from the numerous shortwaves aloft.

With the thicker cloud over and more widespread precipitation
forecast, temps near or slightly below normal are anticipated.

NListemaa

&&

.Aviation
18Z UPDATE...

VFR cigs in the 4-5 kft range with scattered SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and possible MVFR vsbys with heavier precip. While
coverage should decrease this evening, something isolated could
trigger afterward into overnight. Patchy fog possible for Thursday
morning especially for areas with evening precip, but for now just
have MVFR vsbys for sites other than near KATL. Expecting slightly
earlier SHRA/TSRA start for Thursday with more widespread coverage.
Winds mainly on west side for near KATL then VRB with possible gusts
from storms and outflows. Looks calm to light VRB overnight then SW
4-6 kts for later Thursday.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on overall TSRA timing and early morning fog potential.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  87 /  30  70  60  70
Atlanta         73  92  72  86 /  40  70  70  70
Blairsville     67  85  67  79 /  30  70  50  70
Cartersville    72  92  72  87 /  30  70  60  70
Columbus        74  94  73  89 /  20  70  50  70
Gainesville     72  90  71  84 /  30  70  60  70
Macon           73  94  72  89 /  30  70  60  80
Rome            72  92  72  87 /  20  70  60  70
Peachtree City  72  92  71  86 /  30  70  70  70
Vidalia         74  92  74  91 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms will be strong
to severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small
hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices near 100 can be expected over central and portions
or north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Numerous to occasional thunderstorms are expected Thursday
through Saturday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms will be strong to
severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over portions of north
and central Georgia into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ093-095-105-122015-
Macon GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-
346 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON...NORTHWESTERN
DOOLY AND SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 345 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Dooling, or 12 miles
east of Oglethorpe...moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph...nickel sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Byromville, Pinehurst, Lilly and Dooling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3234 8394 3234 8376 3216 8375 3213 8385
      3219 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 358DEG 14KT 3227 8385

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ019-122015-
Floyd GA-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rome. This storm was
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome and Lindale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3414 8521 3421 8531 3436 8521 3426 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 222DEG 2KT 3423 8520

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ094-095-122030-
Peach GA-Houston GA-
352 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PEACH AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sand Bed, or near
Perry. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Warner Robins, Sand Bed, Houston Lake, Bonaire, Kathleen and
Clinchfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3256 8374 3259 8365 3256 8357 3241 8359
      3241 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 004DEG 4KT 3246 8367

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ055-057-122030-
Clayton GA-Henry GA-
400 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CLAYTON AND WESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Flippen, or near
McDonough. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McDonough, Stockbridge, Hampton, Lovejoy, Lake Spivey, Blacksville,
Flippen and Eagles Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3356 8428 3356 8413 3339 8409 3339 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 004DEG 3KT 3349 8421

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
402 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ056-058-070-122030-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Spalding GA-
402 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS...NORTHWESTERN
LAMAR AND SOUTHEASTERN SPALDING COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Griffin...moving east
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Griffin, Orchard Hill, East Griffin, Walker Mill, Experiment and
Chappel Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3329 8428 3331 8413 3330 8413 3330 8412
      3319 8407 3313 8420 3317 8425 3319 8425
      3319 8427 3322 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 287DEG 8KT 3323 8426

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ045-046-048-057-122030-
Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
403 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROCKDALE...SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND EASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Oak Hill, or 8 miles
southwest of Covington. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Lakeview Estates, Ola, Magnet, Milstead, Richardson Park,
Kelleytown, Oak Hill and Rocky Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3376 8398 3346 8388 3344 8392 3345 8393
      3344 8394 3338 8409 3364 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 328DEG 2KT 3354 8399

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH