Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
With todays main feature being a broad sfc low across the region and
marginal instability with already scattered diurnally driven
convection, the rest of the afternoon into overnight could have
additional outflow driven development. Greatest chance for some
strong to isolated severe will be this afternoon into evening with
strong to damaging winds and hail as main threats in addition to
locally heavy rainfall with little steering flow.

Upper low center is progged to advect slightly more eastward into
the TN Valley Thursday and increase some deep layer moisture across
the region (some PWATs could get near 2 inches), so have continued
to trend to likely pops for more numerous/widespread shower/storm
coverage. With little shear in the overall column and again marginal
CAPE values expected, should see some strong to isolated severe
again maximized by daytime heating followed by remnant outflows.

Max temps Thursday a few degrees cooler than today given expected
increased moisture/pops but still slightly above climo norms.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Unsettled weather will persist into the extended portion of the
forecast.

Upper level pattern remains active through the period. A longwave
trough sets up across the Gulf States and remains in place through
early next week. Several strong perturbations in the flow move
through the base of the trough, each with the potential to aid in
increasing the coverage of precip/storms. Models are progging a weak
boundary to set up across the CWA for much of the period. Waves of
low pressure will move east along the boundary, aided by the upper
level support from the numerous shortwaves aloft.

With the thicker cloud over and more widespread precipitation
forecast, temps near or slightly below normal are anticipated.

NListemaa

&&

.Aviation
18Z UPDATE...

VFR cigs in the 4-5 kft range with scattered SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and possible MVFR vsbys with heavier precip. While
coverage should decrease this evening, something isolated could
trigger afterward into overnight. Patchy fog possible for Thursday
morning especially for areas with evening precip, but for now just
have MVFR vsbys for sites other than near KATL. Expecting slightly
earlier SHRA/TSRA start for Thursday with more widespread coverage.
Winds mainly on west side for near KATL then VRB with possible gusts
from storms and outflows. Looks calm to light VRB overnight then SW
4-6 kts for later Thursday.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on overall TSRA timing and early morning fog potential.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  87 /  30  70  60  70
Atlanta         73  92  72  86 /  40  70  70  70
Blairsville     67  85  67  79 /  30  70  50  70
Cartersville    72  92  72  87 /  30  70  60  70
Columbus        74  94  73  89 /  20  70  50  70
Gainesville     72  90  71  84 /  30  70  60  70
Macon           73  94  72  89 /  30  70  60  80
Rome            72  92  72  87 /  20  70  60  70
Peachtree City  72  92  71  86 /  30  70  70  70
Vidalia         74  92  74  91 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms will be strong
to severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small
hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices near 100 can be expected over central and portions
or north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Numerous to occasional thunderstorms are expected Thursday
through Saturday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms will be strong to
severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over portions of north
and central Georgia into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ085-086-097-098-112-113-121930-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOMBS...
SOUTHWESTERN EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND EASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Gillis Springs, or
near Soperton. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Soperton, Adrian, Nunez, Tarrytown, Lothair, Covena,
Orland, Rockledge, Orianna, Norristown, Barnhill, Kibbee, Blackville,
Zaidee and Gillis Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3228 8240 3229 8265 3230 8266 3230 8267
      3229 8267 3230 8270 3231 8272 3229 8275
      3229 8280 3255 8268 3254 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 029DEG 4KT 3243 8250

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ096-107-109-121930-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Empire, or near
Cochran...moving southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Hawkinsville, Chester, Dubois, Coley Station, Gresston,
Empire, Yonkers, Mobley Crossing, Roddy, Baileys Park, Paulk,
Goldsboro, Hartford, Pulaski State Prison and Porter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3232 8309 3219 8331 3222 8345 3238 8349
      3251 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 034DEG 10KT 3234 8331

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ110>112-121930-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-
300 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...EASTERN TELFAIR AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mount Vernon...moving
west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Alamo, Mount Vernon, Glenwood, Uvalda, Ailey, Scotland, Higgston,
Alston, Towns, Spring Hill, Landsburg and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3223 8281 3227 8277 3226 8276 3228 8276
      3228 8275 3221 8245 3202 8248 3200 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 106DEG 8KT 3214 8260

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ083-095-096-107-121930-
Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...WESTERN
BLECKLEY...SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Sand Bed, or 10 miles
east of Perry. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hawkinsville, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Magnolia, Kathleen and
Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3254 8354 3249 8346 3241 8343 3232 8348
      3231 8359 3247 8362 3250 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 353DEG 4KT 3245 8355

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ042>044-053-121930-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-South Fulton GA-
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...
NORTHWESTERN COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Seaton Lake, or 9
miles east of Carrollton. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Whitesburg, Dunaway Gardens, Plant Yates, Byers
Crossroads, Treasure Lake, Hannah, Roscoe, Seaton Lake and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3358 8506 3369 8496 3359 8474 3348 8479
      3343 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 309DEG 4KT 3357 8491

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ044-054-055-121945-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-South Fulton GA-
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN
CLAYTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near College Park, or 9
miles northwest of Jonesboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
East Point, Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale, College Park,
Fairburn, Hapeville, Lake City and Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3367 8444 3361 8434 3348 8447 3355 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 039DEG 1KT 3361 8448

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH