Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1056 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.UPDATE...

Only minor adjustments made to near term trends given recent obs.
Maintaining mostly high end chance to low end likely pops for
expected scattered diurnally driven convection this afternoon into
evening. Some isolated strong to severe intensity still possible
with progged marginal MLCAPE. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A weak trough of low pressure remains over the local area and is
adding just enough convergent flow along with residual outflows to
allow for continued nocturnal thunderstorm activity. These have been
isolated in nature but still enough to warrant inclusion of low end
pops through daybreak. For the remainder of today, low remains over
the area and models want to indicate a relative lull in instability
associated with it, especially the GFS. Not buying off on this
completely and prefer the hi res solutions which indicate a
relatively active day, particularly across west central portions of
the state.

Will carry high end chance pops to low end likely in this region
today. There is some mid level dry air that tries to work its way in
to NE portions as precipitable water values drop to 1.40 inches this
afternoon. As has been the case, isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible as will localized flooding given weak steering
currents anticipated today.

Whereas today is a bit more of a question mark concerning pops, Thu
looks to be a sure bet for widespread convection. Increased PW
values to around 2 inches will act in tandem with approaching mid
level trough to produce likely coverage area wise. Would go
categorical based on the setup but sometimes atmosphere is too
primed for convection and this could be the case as early onset of
activity could spawn enough cloud coverage to limit pops for the
rest of the day. Continued weak steering along with aforementioned
high moisture values could lead to additional localized flooding.

Deese

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Unsettled wet and stormy weather will continue in the long term
period due to an upper level level trough over the SE U.S. along
with abundant moisture over the area. Numerous to occasional showers
and thunderstorms can be expected Friday and Saturday.

Models differences start to show up for Sunday with the GFS moving
the upper trough faster across the area and is weaker and less moist
than the European which has a better defined upper trough.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area Monday into
Tuesday. Differences continue Monday and Tuesday in the NW flow.
The GFS is indicating a significant short wave on Monday and the
European is much weaker and then another short wave on Tuesday.
So the potential for unsettled weather will continue.

Heat Indices of 100 to 105 can still be expected for portions
of many central GA into the weekend.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR conditions to start out the day with just some building CU
through the morning hours. Moisture profile suggests a BKN050 deck
will develop by early afternoon and persist throughout the day.
In addition, TSRA should redevelop with focus among hi res
guidance being around the ATL area TAF sites. Perhaps a little
later development and the Prob30 currently advertised at 21Z looks
good. Winds to remain on the west side and light through the
period.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  72  90  71 /  40  40  70  60
Atlanta         93  73  90  72 /  60  40  70  50
Blairsville     86  67  82  66 /  40  30  70  60
Cartersville    92  72  91  71 /  40  40  70  50
Columbus        93  74  93  73 /  40  30  70  40
Gainesville     90  72  88  70 /  40  40  70  60
Macon           93  72  92  72 /  50  40  70  50
Rome            92  73  91  71 /  40  40  70  50
Peachtree City  92  72  90  71 /  60  40  70  40
Vidalia         92  74  91  73 /  50  40  70  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese/Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms will be strong
to severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small
hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices near 100 can be expected over central and portions
or north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Numerous to occasional thunderstorms are expected Thursday
through Saturday and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. A few storms will be strong to
severe with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, small hail,
and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over portions of north
and central Georgia into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

GAZ019-020-030-121745-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
113 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTOW AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 112 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Fish Creek, or near
Cedartown. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rockmart, Euharlee, Aragon, Taylorsville, Seney, Fish Creek,
Stilesboro and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3418 8506 3413 8490 3400 8496 3396 8514
      3405 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 237DEG 4KT 3405 8516

WIND...40MPH