Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast
area, and will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Clearing skies this morning and early afternoon allowed for
quick diurnal heating and rapid destabilization, with SBCAPE values
reaching into the 2500-3500 J/kg range. A line of thunderstorms
associated with the shortwave embedded within the upper level NW
flow aloft continues to push southward, and has entered the northern
ATL metro area. This complex is expected to hold together through
the evening as it moves towards central Georgia. With greater than
originally anticipated across the forecast area, there is a chance
for several thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard with any severe thunderstorm that occur,
particularly in the vicinity of the shortwave disturbance. Locally
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and hail up to 1 inch in
diameter are also possible with any strong to severe thunderstorms
that occur. With calm winds and clearing skies during the
overnight hours, patchy fog and low stratus is possible in
locations over which heavy rain occurred this afternoon and
evening.

On Tuesday, shortwave energy should be positioned across central
Georgia. Sufficient moisture and instability will remain in place
across north Georgia for at least low-end chance PoPs. However, deep
moisture -- as indicated by dewpoints in the mid 70s and
precipitable water values over 2 inches -- in central Georgia
warrants continued high end chance to low end likely PoPs.
Considering weak steering flow and persistent convection, there is a
chance for some localized flooding concerns where heavier rain
remains for a  prolonged period. High temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to mainly range from the low to mid 90s. Combined with
ample moisture across the area, heat indices will range from 100 to
105 across much of the forecast area, but should remain just outside
of advisory criteria.

King

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. All in all we are in
a typical summertime pattern with weak upper level flow and deep
layer moisture staying across the region. Expecting this pattern to
continue through the rest of the long term. The nature of the upper
flow will allow for weak short waves with abundant moisture to move
across the area and enhance diurnally driven precip chances through
the weekend. The daily convection should end shortly after the sun
goes down but there will be a few nights with precip continuing
through the midnight hour. With increased moisture and daytime highs
expected in the 90, heat indices in the 100 to 105 range can be
expected. Will keep a close eye on this as most days will come close
to heat advisory criteria through the beginning of next week.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primarily VFR conditions are in place at all TAF sites as the
period begins, and in spite of some MVFR ceilings associated with
TSRA, should continue through the remainder of today. Scattered
TSRA is ongoing across the forecast area and is expected to
increase in coverage this afternoon as a line of storms in north
Georgia pushes south. A TEMPO group for TSRA is in place from
18-22Z, but will likely need to be extended in ensuing TAF
updates. Patchy fog and vsby restrictions are possible overnight
where heavy rain occurs, particularly in central Georgia near MCN.
While some gusty winds are expected with any TSRA that occurs,
the prevailing winds will remain W to NW through the period, at
5-8 kts this afternoon and 5 kts or less overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  93  70  93 /  50  40  30  60
Atlanta         72  92  72  94 /  50  40  30  60
Blairsville     65  87  65  86 /  40  40  30  60
Cartersville    71  93  71  94 /  50  30  30  60
Columbus        73  93  73  96 /  50  50  30  70
Gainesville     71  91  71  91 /  40  30  30  60
Macon           72  94  72  94 /  50  50  50  60
Rome            71  94  71  95 /  40  30  20  60
Peachtree City  71  92  71  94 /  50  40  40  60
Vidalia         74  93  74  91 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
415 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected over north and
central Georgia, most so this afternoon into tonight. A few storms
will be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over central and portions
of north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Sunday. A few storms will be strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over central and portions
of north Georgia through the weekend. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
the hottest days with spotty heat indices of 105 to 110. Those outside
for prolonged periods should make sure to take precautions from the
heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
435 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW MAGNET            33.58N  84.03W
08/10/2020                   ROCKDALE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES OFF COWAN ROAD SE. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001086

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW CENTERVILLE       33.82N  84.08W
08/10/2020                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES ALONG CLIFFVIEW DRIVE IN
            LILBURN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001087

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

GAZ078-079-089-102115-
Harris GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
444 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARRIS...TALBOT AND
NORTHEASTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Olive Branch, or near
Talbotton...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Waverly Hall, Woodland, Junction City, Geneva, Upatoi,
Baldwinville, Baughville, Flint Hill, Olive Branch, Po Biddy
Crossroads, Box Springs, Pleasant Hill and Big Lazer Creek Wma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3282 8441 3279 8439 3263 8438 3261 8441
      3256 8441 3256 8449 3255 8449 3254 8451
      3255 8454 3254 8454 3255 8455 3254 8457
      3253 8456 3253 8465 3252 8468 3251 8475
      3285 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 265DEG 14KT 3267 8464

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

GAZ071-081-082-102115-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
446 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...WESTERN
BIBB AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Culloden, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Roberta, Culloden, Payne City, Knoxville, Lizella, Lake
Tobesofkee, Sandy Point, Russellville and Musella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3285 8412 3289 8412 3293 8409 3293 8406
      3295 8405 3295 8404 3286 8368 3265 8383
      3261 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 308DEG 17KT 3289 8406

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH