Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Weak frontal boundary remains stationary across central portions of
the state. The boundary has drifted a little further north and looks
to be situated across the ATL metro. Convective coverage is a little
greater than yesterday and has also developed a little further
north. Storms have been lingering well into the evening hours, and
today and tomorrow should be no different. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible for the remainder of the afternoon and again
tomorrow afternoon. The primary severe hazard would be damaging wind
gusts/downbursts. Strong storms will have the potential for strong
wind and occasional lightning strikes. With PWATS around 2" and weak
BL winds, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Earlier runs of the models (hi-res and synoptic) were showing the
potential for a disturbance/thunderstorm complex to drop south
across northern GA late this evening/overnight. The synoptic models
are still showing a pretty decent shortwave dropping south in the
flow and some indications of a weak disturbance in the 850-500mb
Thickness progs (showing my age here), but the hi-res models have
backed off on the pops/coverage. Confidence is low, but am going to
keep low end chance pops up north for the overnight hours. Most of
the progs were showing any complex to weaken as it approached the
metro area.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

The extended portion of the forecast will be characterized by a
fairly messy synoptic setup where we are wedged between an area of
high pressure to the west and to the east. This will result in some
days of weak troughing and other days of very weak flow on the edge
of high pressure. Even though the flow overall will be pretty week,
perturbations moving through the flow in addition to an overall
increase in moisture through the period will still lead to increased
rain chances through the extended. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase as we progress each day
through the extended with several days with area-wide likely pops
from Wednesday onward. Showers and thunderstorms should be mostly
diurnal in nature with the highest coverage during the afternoon and
evenings, but some showers and thunderstorms will linger into the
overnight hours as well. As with most summer days, a few strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible.

In addition to increasing chances for rain, temperatures will be on
the increase as well. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday are
expected to be about 4 to 7 degrees above average with 80s in the
mountains, mid 90s across the metro, and mid to upper 90s across
central Georgia. Temperatures should be just a few degrees cooler
for the second half of the week as chances for rain and cloud cover
increase, although highs are still expected to be in the upper 80s
across northern GA to the lower 90s further across central GA. Heat
indices are also expected to increase to near heat advisory
criteria. As the forecast stands now, heat indices range from about
100 to 106 degrees across central Georgia mainly on
Wednesday/Thursday coincident with the highest temperatures. We will
continue to carefully monitor these areas for the need for any heat
advisories over the coming days. Overnight temperatures are expected
to be in the 60s and 70s, remaining just a few degrees above
average.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist, with BKN060-090 expected across
northern TAF sites overnight and BKN040-060 expected at all TAF
sites tomorrow afternoon. Winds should be west except where
convection briefly turns it east this evening. Wind speeds outside
of convection will be 6kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  94 /  40  40  40  50
Atlanta         74  90  74  93 /  30  40  40  50
Blairsville     66  82  66  85 /  50  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  92  71  94 /  20  50  40  60
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  30  50  50  60
Gainesville     71  88  71  91 /  30  40  30  50
Macon           73  95  73  95 /  40  50  50  50
Rome            72  92  72  95 /  30  50  40  60
Peachtree City  72  92  72  93 /  30  40  40  50
Vidalia         74  94  75  94 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
251 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over north and
central Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms will be
strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over central and portions
of north Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Saturday, most likely in the afternoon and evening. A few storms
will be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over central and portions
of north Georgia through the week. Tuesday through Thursday will be
the hottest days with spotty heat indices of 105 to 110 over
central Georgia. Those outside for prolonged periods should make
sure to take precautions from the heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ033-045-100000-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-
725 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON AND WESTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 724 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Decatur. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Avondale Estates, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Belvedere
Park, North Decatur, Candler-Mcafee, Druid Hills, Midtown, North
Druid Hills, Virginia Highland, Sweet Auburn, Piedmont Park,
Scottdale, Kirkwood, Panthersville, East Lake, Gresham Park, Little
Five Points and La Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3369 8429 3370 8435 3378 8442 3383 8430
      3376 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 190DEG 4KT 3374 8432

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
758 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ051-061-062-100030-
Taliaferro GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
758 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALIAFERRO...
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

At 757 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Barnett. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Crawfordville, Norwood, Sharon, Camak, Powelton, Barnett
and Raytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3335 8282 3350 8294 3364 8280 3363 8277
      3343 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 233DEG 3KT 3347 8281

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ054>057-100100-
Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Spalding GA-Henry GA-
825 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHERN
CLAYTON...NORTHERN SPALDING AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM EDT...

At 824 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Inman. This storm was
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, pea sized hail, frequent lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fayetteville, Hampton, Brooks, Woolsey, Jw Smith Reservoir, Atlanta
Motor Speedway, Lake Horton, Birdie and Inman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3343 8446 3344 8440 3343 8434 3338 8429
      3331 8430 3329 8439 3331 8448 3338 8449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 353DEG 4KT 3338 8440

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ034-045>049-057-100100-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
Henry GA-
835 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...WALTON...
ROCKDALE...SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT...NEWTON AND
NORTHERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 833 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from Lithonia to
Oxford and Monroe, moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Conyers, Monroe, Covington, Snellville, Loganville, Stone Mountain,
Social Circle, Avondale Estates, Oxford, Lithonia, Porterdale, Walnut
Grove, Rutledge, Pine Lake, Newborn, Mansfield, Between, Good Hope,
Jersey and Lakeview Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3388 8373 3378 8360 3347 8351 3348 8361
      3353 8368 3351 8369 3349 8367 3348 8369
      3350 8370 3350 8371 3349 8371 3352 8415
      3378 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 287DEG 6KT 3373 8405 3368 8379

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ037-038-050-100115-
Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-
838 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

At 837 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Farmington. This
storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Bishop, Farmington and Wrayswood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3364 8337 3366 8337 3366 8338 3369 8340
      3370 8342 3382 8344 3385 8333 3371 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 337DEG 3KT 3378 8335

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
851 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

GAZ047>049-100115-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Newton GA-
851 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN
WALTON AND EASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 851 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rutledge. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Social Circle, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, Hard Labor Creek State
Park and Brick Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3363 8347 3351 8357 3350 8365 3353 8368
      3352 8369 3350 8368 3350 8371 3349 8371
      3349 8375 3363 8375 3369 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 325DEG 2KT 3362 8365

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH