Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Weak boundary remains situated across central portions of the state
this afternoon. The best moisture/instability is along and south of
the weak front, with a (very) slightly drier airmass north of the
boundary this afternoon. Surface instability is fairly impressive
this afternoon and storms should continue to fire along old
outflows/mesoscale boundaries. For the last several nights,
convection has lingered to around midnight, so will leave in
at least isolated pops in through midnight/1AM.

Already had some stronger storms develop with decent cores. Storm
mode should be mostly pulse and the primary hazards would be strong
gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. A few isolated severe
thunderstorms are not out of the question, with damaging wind gusts
being the primary severe hazard. BL flow remains at 10kt or below,
so storms will also be slow movers and capable of locally heavy
rainfall, especially with PWATS of 2"+. The hi-res models are
progging a bit more convective coverage across the CWA tomorrow
afternoon, with moisture slightly increasing.

Heat Index/Apparent T values are currently below criteria for the
remainder of this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but values between
100 and 105 will possible mainly along and south of Athens to
Columbus. Temps are running 5 to 7 degrees above normal.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

The main characteristic for the extended portion of the forecast
will be a fairly messy synoptic setup where we wedged are between an
area of high pressure to the west and to the east. This will result
in some days of weak troughing and other days of very weak flow on
the edge of high pressure. Even though the flow overall will be
pretty week, perturbations moving through the flow in addition to an
overall increase in moisture through the period will still lead to
increased rain chances through the extended. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase as we progress each day
with several afternoons of area-wide likely pops from Wednesday
onward. Showers and thunderstorms should be mostly diurnal in
nature with the highest coverage during the afternoon and
evenings, but some showers and storms may linger into the
overnight hours as well. As with most summer days, a few strong to
isolated severe storms will also be possible.

In addition to increasing chances for rain, temperatures will be on
the increase as well. High temperatures on Monday through Wednesday
are expected to be about 4 to 7 degrees above average with 80s in
the mountains, mid 90s across the metro, and mid to upper 90s across
central Georgia. Temperatures should be just a few degrees cooler
for the second half of the week as chances for rain and cloud cover
increase, although highs in the 90s are still expected. The mix of
warm temps with increased moisture across the area may lead to
issues with heat indices near heat advisory criteria. As the
forecast stands now, heat indices near 100 to 105 degrees will be
possible across central Georgia through the first half of the
week. We will continue to carefully monitor these areas for the
need for any heat advisories over the coming days. Overnight
temperatures are expected to be in the 60s and 70s, remaining just
a few degrees above average.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Winds will remain the forecast problem. Speeds are very light and
are typically averaging 3-4kt. Models do seem to want to favor the
west side today, so at ATL have indicated a direction. Elsewhere,
winds may be more VRB. Wind speeds again tomorrow will be 3-4kt
and even more variable in nature. Pops pretty low the next two
days...so have only included a VC.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence winds through the period. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  71  93 /  30  30  20  40
Atlanta         73  93  73  91 /  20  30  20  40
Blairsville     64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
Cartersville    71  94  71  91 /  20  20  20  40
Columbus        74  96  74  97 /  20  30  20  40
Gainesville     70  92  71  91 /  30  20  20  40
Macon           72  95  73  95 /  30  40  30  40
Rome            70  94  71  92 /  20  20  20  40
Peachtree City  71  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  40
Vidalia         74  95  75  94 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across central
and portions of north Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms will be strong to possibly severe with strong to damaging
winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected for much of central
Georgia this afternoon. Those outside for prolonged periods
should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected Sunday with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday through Friday. A few
storms will be strong to severe with strong to damaging winds,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 can be expected over central and portions
of north Georgia well into the week. Those outside for prolonged
periods should make sure to take precautions from the heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

GAZ096-097-109-082015-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
336 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAURENS...EASTERN
BLECKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Goldsboro, moving
east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Chester, Dexter, Dudley, Montrose, Dubois, Gresston, Empire,
Yonkers, Roddy, Rowland, Goldsboro and Rebie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3236 8335 3255 8329 3256 8327 3256 8306
      3238 8301 3223 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 284DEG 6KT 3244 8325

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

GAZ104-082030-
Sumter GA-
355 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Croxton Crossroads,
moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Sumter, Huntington, Maddox and Croxton Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8439 3206 8438 3210 8418 3197 8411
      3191 8413 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 271DEG 6KT 3197 8430

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

GAZ008-015-082030-
Union GA-Lumpkin GA-
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Woods Hole Shelter, or
9 miles south of Blairsville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Woods Hole Shelter, Blood Mountain Shelter and Vogel State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3479 8380 3478 8383 3475 8382 3474 8383
      3473 8383 3472 8384 3473 8385 3472 8386
      3470 8386 3467 8387 3468 8402 3481 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 289DEG 2KT 3474 8397

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
404 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

GAZ097-109>111-082045-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
404 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER...TELFAIR...
SOUTHERN LAURENS AND SOUTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from Jay Bird Springs
to near Milan to near Jacksonville, moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail, frequent
           lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McRae, Helena, Milan, Scotland, Chauncey, Jacksonville, Jay Bird
Springs, Achord, Horse Creek WMA, Cedar Grove, Little Ocmulgee State
Park and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3197 8308 3217 8311 3231 8284 3204 8281
      3187 8275 3186 8276 3186 8278 3185 8279
      3184 8278 3181 8282 3182 8284 3178 8286
      3178 8289 3179 8290 3178 8292 3179 8298
      3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 253DEG 5KT 3212 8303 3199 8301 3186 8297

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH

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