Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.UPDATE...
Convection firing up quite a bit earlier than expected. Have
tweaked PoPs a little but seem on track now. Received a few
reports of 1 or 2 downed trees and small hail. Wind gusts at
airports and MADIS weather stations remaining below 30kts so far.
Impacts should be isolated but continue through the afternoon and
early evening.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 726 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

.Morning Area Forecast Discussion for July 25...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Weakness in the ridging aloft has developed with a weak trough
situated across the CWA. This weak trough aloft will continue
through the remainder of the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the
short term. However, a surface trough will develop across the
eastern seaboard.

A typical summertime pattern expected today and tomorrow with
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection may try and
develop fist within the weakness of the upper level ridge and then
continue to feed on mesoscale/outflow boundaries throughout the
evening(s). Models have seemed to be overdoing the pops lately, and
not confident enough to go likely at this time. Boundary layer flow
remains very light and slow moving storms will have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, but an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. The primary hazards for severe weather would be
gusty/damaging winds and frequent lightning both days.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Long term begins Sunday night with anticyclonic rossby wave break in
progress across the eastern third of the CONUS which will elongate
a positive PV anomaly over the western Atlantic into a streamer
that breaks over the southeastern US that will represent a
continued weakness in the 500 mb ridging over the area. Large lobe
of high PV air will dive in behind the wave break, bringing a
broad trough into the Northeast next week that will force a slowly
moving cold front into or just north of the forecast area by
midweek which should act as a focus for increased diurnally driven
PoPs. A subtropical ridge will begin to build over the western
CONUS around which several shortwaves will traverse, which are
forecast to interact with the baroclinic zone left behind by the
front and generate a surface cyclone somewhere to the west of the
CWA. This is forecast to bring decent moisture and rainfall into
the area by the end of the forecast period, though the exact
placement and timing of the cyclone is still uncertain, with a
range of solutions offered by guidance, which ultimately will
determine the extent of impacts to the CWA. Beyond this point,
will need to keep an eye on the tropics, as EPS and operational
Euro as well as some members of the GEFS bring tropical wave that
has emerged into the Atlantic off Africa towards the US, though it
is far, far too early to have faith in any exact track.

One upside to our rainy forecast is a return to more seasonable
temperatures, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to the north with
low to mid 90s toward central Georgia. Plenty of moisture will still
be in place, so heat indices will still be flirting with 100 in some
areas, though it would honestly be more unusual if they were not.
The surface low forecast to form by the end of the week will be able
to tap into the deep moisture across the area, so if best forcing
for lift were to end up over the CWA (which some guidance does
depict), some hefty area wide rainfall totals will be possible,
though as stated above, plenty of uncertainty still remains around
this system.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA firing up a little earlier than last few days. Adjusted TAFs
in ATL metro and KAHN to show this. Winds will be light E to SE
except near TSRA outflows. Very similar pattern and timing of
clouds and SHRA/TSRA Sunday. Not much chance of MVFR fog/stratus
Sunday morning but possible at KMCN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing and MVFR fog/stratus.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
Atlanta         88  72  89  73 /  40  40  40  20
Blairsville     82  65  83  65 /  40  40  50  20
Cartersville    90  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Columbus        93  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
Gainesville     87  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  20
Macon           92  71  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Rome            91  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Peachtree City  89  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  10
Vidalia         92  73  93  73 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over north and
central Georgia this afternoon into the evening. A few storms
could be strong with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area. A few
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent
lightning, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ031-032-043-044-251930-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN COBB...
SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Winston, or near
Douglasville...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Villa Rica, Powder Springs, Austell, Lithia Springs,
Sweetwater Creek State Park, Winston, Brownsville, Campbellton,
Chapel Hill and Bill Arp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3378 8490 3386 8469 3364 8455 3359 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 349DEG 6KT 3374 8480

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ055-251930-
Clayton GA-
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CLAYTON COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Morrow, or near
Jonesboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jonesboro, Forest Park, Riverdale, Morrow, Lake City, Fort Gillem,
Ellenwood and Conley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3365 8429 3364 8428 3355 8428 3355 8429
      3354 8429 3353 8428 3353 8430 3349 8441
      3350 8441 3361 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 337DEG 4KT 3358 8437

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH