Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion for July 25...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Weakness in the ridging aloft has developed with a weak trough
situated across the CWA. This weak trough aloft will continue
through the remainder of the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the
short term. However, a surface trough will develop across the
eastern seaboard.

A typical summertime pattern expected today and tomorrow with
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection may try and
develop fist within the weakness of the upper level ridge and then
continue to feed on mesoscale/outflow boundaries throughout the
evening(s). Models have seemed to be overdoing the pops lately, and
not confident enough to go likely at this time. Boundary layer flow
remains very light and slow moving storms will have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, but an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. The primary hazards for severe weather would be
gusty/damaging winds and frequent lightning both days.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Long term begins Sunday night with anticyclonic rossby wave break in
progress across the eastern third of the CONUS which will elongate
a positive PV anomaly over the western Atlantic into a streamer
that breaks over the southeastern US that will represent a
continued weakness in the 500 mb ridging over the area. Large lobe
of high PV air will dive in behind the wave break, bringing a
broad trough into the Northeast next week that will force a slowly
moving cold front into or just north of the forecast area by
midweek which should act as a focus for increased diurnally driven
PoPs. A subtropical ridge will begin to build over the western
CONUS around which several shortwaves will traverse, which are
forecast to interact with the baroclinic zone left behind by the
front and generate a surface cyclone somewhere to the west of the
CWA. This is forecast to bring decent moisture and rainfall into
the area by the end of the forecast period, though the exact
placement and timing of the cyclone is still uncertain, with a
range of solutions offered by guidance, which ultimately will
determine the extent of impacts to the CWA. Beyond this point,
will need to keep an eye on the tropics, as EPS and operational
Euro as well as some members of the GEFS bring tropical wave that
has emerged into the Atlantic off Africa towards the US, though it
is far, far too early to have faith in any exact track.

One upside to our rainy forecast is a return to more seasonable
temperatures, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to the north with
low to mid 90s toward central Georgia. Plenty of moisture will still
be in place, so heat indices will still be flirting with 100 in some
areas, though it would honestly be more unusual if they were not.
The surface low forecast to form by the end of the week will be able
to tap into the deep moisture across the area, so if best forcing
for lift were to end up over the CWA (which some guidance does
depict), some hefty area wide rainfall totals will be possible,
though as stated above, plenty of uncertainty still remains around
this system.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible again today.
Hi-res models show some isolated activity popping up around 17-18Z
then becoming more scattered around 19-20Z. Have tried to narrow
the PROB30 group down to the best timing for precip. Some SCT025
and 050 likely this morning. Winds will remain light and out of
the east.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
Atlanta         88  72  89  73 /  40  40  40  20
Blairsville     82  65  83  65 /  40  40  50  20
Cartersville    90  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Columbus        93  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
Gainesville     87  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  20
Macon           92  71  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Rome            91  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Peachtree City  89  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  10
Vidalia         92  73  93  73 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over north and
central Georgia this afternoon into the evening. A few storms
could be strong with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area. A few
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent
lightning, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ032-033-251815-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-
152 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON AND COBB COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 152 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Atlantic Station, or
near Atlanta...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Marietta, Sandy Springs, Smyrna, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta,
Midtown, Fair Oaks, White Water Park, West End, Virginia Highland,
Vinings, Sweet Auburn, Turner Field, Piedmont Park, Bankhead, Six
Flags Over Georgia, Cascade Heights, Bolton, Dobbins Air Reserve Base
and Atlantic Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3399 8452 3391 8435 3371 8435 3372 8452
      3375 8457 3374 8458 3377 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 106DEG 7KT 3382 8439

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ074>076-251830-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND GLASCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Gibson...moving south
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gibson, Avera, Mitchell, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Downs, Agricola, Grange
and Stapletons Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3303 8274 3326 8273 3327 8270 3327 8269
      3329 8266 3330 8252 3306 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 351DEG 9KT 3322 8262

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ034-046>048-251845-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-
215 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON...
NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE...SOUTHEASTERN GWINNETT AND NORTHERN NEWTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 215 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rosebud, or 9 miles
north of Conyers...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Snellville, Loganville, Grayson, Walnut Grove, Jersey, Lakeview
Estates, Windsor, Gum Creek, Youth, Big Haynes Creek Park and
Rosebud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3370 8378 3370 8403 3374 8404 3375 8403
      3377 8405 3382 8407 3394 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 253DEG 6KT 3379 8397

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ032-033-043-251845-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-
221 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
DOUGLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 220 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mableton, or 7 miles
south of Marietta. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Smyrna, Powder Springs, Austell,
Lithia Springs, Fair Oaks, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Jim R Miller
Park, Six Flags Over Georgia, Dobbins Air Reserve Base, Mableton and
Vinings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3397 8468 3391 8447 3374 8447 3373 8454
      3375 8457 3372 8460 3371 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 093DEG 3KT 3384 8455

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ058>061-071>076-251845-
Butts GA-Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Putnam GA-Monroe GA-Baldwin GA-
Hancock GA-Glascock GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUTTS...JEFFERSON...
WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHERN MONROE...BALDWIN...
SOUTHERN HANCOCK...SOUTHWESTERN GLASCOCK...JONES AND SOUTHERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 221 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Stellaville to near Ethridge to near Turtle
Cove...and moving southwest at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Sandersville, Jackson, Gray, Monticello, Louisville,
Wrens, Davisboro, Tennille, Flovilla, Stapleton, Avera, Mitchell,
Deepstep, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Downs and
Beulah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3293 8240 3295 8308 3301 8314 3299 8318
      3297 8316 3298 8321 3296 8327 3295 8326
      3296 8367 3309 8404 3320 8404 3320 8409
      3337 8386 3323 8343 3320 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 038DEG 16KT 3316 8237 3319 8347 3331 8383

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ038-050-051-251900-
Taliaferro GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TALIAFERRO...
SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

At 225 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Wrayswood, or 7 miles
northwest of Greensboro. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greensboro, Union Point, Woodville, Maxeys, Robinson, Penfield,
Philomath and Daniel Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3374 8298 3358 8297 3359 8329 3377 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 093DEG 3KT 3367 8326

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH