Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion for July 25...

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Weakness in the ridging aloft has developed with a weak trough
situated across the CWA. This weak trough aloft will continue
through the remainder of the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in control of the sensible weather through the
short term. However, a surface trough will develop across the
eastern seaboard.

A typical summertime pattern expected today and tomorrow with
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection may try and
develop fist within the weakness of the upper level ridge and then
continue to feed on mesoscale/outflow boundaries throughout the
evening(s). Models have seemed to be overdoing the pops lately, and
not confident enough to go likely at this time. Boundary layer flow
remains very light and slow moving storms will have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, but an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. The primary hazards for severe weather would be
gusty/damaging winds and frequent lightning both days.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Long term begins Sunday night with anticyclonic rossby wave break in
progress across the eastern third of the CONUS which will elongate
a positive PV anomaly over the western Atlantic into a streamer
that breaks over the southeastern US that will represent a
continued weakness in the 500 mb ridging over the area. Large lobe
of high PV air will dive in behind the wave break, bringing a
broad trough into the Northeast next week that will force a slowly
moving cold front into or just north of the forecast area by
midweek which should act as a focus for increased diurnally driven
PoPs. A subtropical ridge will begin to build over the western
CONUS around which several shortwaves will traverse, which are
forecast to interact with the baroclinic zone left behind by the
front and generate a surface cyclone somewhere to the west of the
CWA. This is forecast to bring decent moisture and rainfall into
the area by the end of the forecast period, though the exact
placement and timing of the cyclone is still uncertain, with a
range of solutions offered by guidance, which ultimately will
determine the extent of impacts to the CWA. Beyond this point,
will need to keep an eye on the tropics, as EPS and operational
Euro as well as some members of the GEFS bring tropical wave that
has emerged into the Atlantic off Africa towards the US, though it
is far, far too early to have faith in any exact track.

One upside to our rainy forecast is a return to more seasonable
temperatures, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to the north with
low to mid 90s toward central Georgia. Plenty of moisture will still
be in place, so heat indices will still be flirting with 100 in some
areas, though it would honestly be more unusual if they were not.
The surface low forecast to form by the end of the week will be able
to tap into the deep moisture across the area, so if best forcing
for lift were to end up over the CWA (which some guidance does
depict), some hefty area wide rainfall totals will be possible,
though as stated above, plenty of uncertainty still remains around
this system.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible again today.
Hi-res models show some isolated activity popping up around 17-18Z
then becoming more scattered around 19-20Z. Have tried to narrow
the PROB30 group down to the best timing for precip. Some SCT025
and 050 likely this morning. Winds will remain light and out of
the east.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  20
Atlanta         88  72  89  73 /  40  40  40  20
Blairsville     82  65  83  65 /  40  40  50  20
Cartersville    90  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Columbus        93  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
Gainesville     87  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  20
Macon           92  71  93  72 /  40  40  20  20
Rome            91  70  91  71 /  40  40  40  20
Peachtree City  89  70  89  70 /  40  40  40  10
Vidalia         92  73  93  73 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over north and
central Georgia this afternoon into the evening. A few storms
could be strong with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area. A few
storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent
lightning, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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