Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

A cold front is forecast to move across the area today and early
evening. SPC has indicated a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front for today. This is due to strong low
level shear but overall weak instability, therefore a high shear low cape
event. Strong-damaging Thunderstorm winds are the most likely hazard.

The Flash Flood Watch for far N GA will continue until 18z. The bulk
of the heavy rain potential should be over by then.

Rain chances will be ending for at least portions of N GA this
afternoon and the rest of the area tonight.

Sunshine is expected to return on Friday.

Some areas could see wind advisory criteria today(20 mph sustained), but
not a widespread event for an advisory to be issued.

Forecast high temperatures are running close to normal for areas over
the far northwest today, to 10-15 degrees above normal over the far
southeast portion of the forecast area. Forecast high temperatures
are running from near to 5-10 degrees below normal on Friday and a little
cooler in the mountains.
Forecast low temperatures are running from a few degrees below normal for
areas to the far north and west tonight to as much as 5-10 degrees above
normal  for areas to the far east and south.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The upper level short wave quickly exits the area with weak upper
level ridging and surface high pressure across the forecast area.
Clear skies and near calm winds overnight will allow for good
radiational cooling with overnight lows below normal with
temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s Saturday morning. Afternoon
highs will rebound but remain 5 degrees below normal with mid 40s
to upper 50s across the area.

Models diverge Saturday night into Sunday as ECMWF is more
progressive developing a surface low along the northern GOMEX,
with increasing moisture and low chance POPs across portions of
the forecast area Sunday and Monday as temperatures again moderate
to above normal temperatures.

The next system approaches northwest GA Tuesday and Wednesday with
POPs increasing to likely ahead of an elongated surface front that
moves through the forecast area on Wednesday. There is a chance
we could see a respite from rain by the end of the week, but
models are not in any agreement on this and will continue at least
low chance POPs for now.

Atwell

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly MVFR ceilings associated with showers moving across the
area and some IFR ceilings possible as well. Some IFR/MVFR vsbys
associated with the rain/shower/thunderstorm activity.
Improvement expected late day and tonight to VFR. Surface winds
SSW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts becoming W-N during the day and
tonight. Wind diminishing tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence for ceilings/vsbys/weather.
High confidence for winds.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  38  55  31 /  80   5   0   0
Atlanta         65  34  49  30 /  90   5   0   0
Blairsville     57  28  44  25 /  90   5   0   0
Cartersville    59  30  47  27 /  80   5   0   0
Columbus        69  39  57  33 /  80   5   0   0
Gainesville     63  34  50  30 /  90   5   0   0
Macon           70  41  59  34 /  80  10   0   0
Rome            59  30  46  26 /  80   5   0   0
Peachtree City  66  34  52  30 /  90   5   0   0
Vidalia         77  49  62  37 /  70  70   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for the
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Floyd...Gilmer...Gordon...Lumpkin...
Murray...Pickens...Polk...Towns...Union...Walker...White...
Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Atwell
AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
455 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of north
Georgia through early this afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts
of up to 1 inch with locally higher amounts are possible. Soils
remain saturated and several rivers, creeks and streams remain
near or in flood, so any additional rainfall will only create
runoff and exacerbate ongoing flooding conditions. Strong
thunderstorms are possible across portions of west and central
Georgia through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday as a surface front
moves across the area. No hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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