Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

An upper level ridge continues to slowly move eastward across the
eastern CONUS through the short term period, and will be centered
over the Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. With the ridge axis and
surface high pressure currently positioned to the east of the
forecast area, surface winds have shifted to a southeasterly
direction on the back side of the high pressure. Meanwhile,
advection of low-level tropical moisture is contributing to
increasing dewpoints and instability. Meanwhile, a weak surface
boundary remains stalled near the I-20 corridor, which is
maintaining deeper moisture and higher humidity along the boundary
and to the south.

Convection throughout the short term period will be diurnally-driven
in nature, and is already developing across north and central
Georgia. With increasing instability, an increase in
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated across the forecast area, with
slight chance PoPs or less only in northeast Georgia, and chance
PoPs elsewhere across the forecast area. Widespread severe weather
is not expected, but with SBCAPE values rising into the 2000-3000
J/kg range in west Georgia, a few storms could become strong to
marginally severe and capable of producing gusty winds, in addition
to frequent lightning and locally heavy rain.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish tonight. With very
light winds and humid conditions in central Georgia, some patchy fog
is possible in central Georgia in the early morning. The pattern
will remain consistent on Thursday as the ridge moves over the
Atlantic. With continued southerly flow, moisture advection will
continue and dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 70s areawide.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are once again expected on
Thursday. The highest rain chances will be in the high-end chance
PoPs range (40-50 percent) across majority of the forecast area,
with lower chances further east.

Both low and high temperatures will be consistently above normal
through the short term period. Notably, highs are expected to range
from the low to mid 90s in north Georgia and mid to upper 90s in
central Georgia. Considering deeper moisture in central Georgia,
heat indices from 100 to 104 will be observed along and south of the
Atlanta metro this afternoon. While some isolated areas will reach
or exceed heat indices 105 degrees in central Georgia, values are
overall not anticipated to reach advisory criteria. Heat index
values will be slightly lower on Thursday, ranging from 97-102
degrees across the majority of the forecast area.

King

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. The long term will
continue to be characterized by some level of upper level ridging
across the area. This will keep diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms and very warm temps through day 7. There are minor
differences in the models with increased moisture and timing but
they are all showing a similar summertime pattern. Overall the trend
is increased moisture as we go into next week, and temps remaining
mainly in the 90s. Right now it appears Heat Indices will reach into
the upper 90s to lower 100s each day as well. We will keep an eye on
things as we may need to issue a heat advisory sometime over the
next week or so.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Mid-level
stratus over ATL has dissipated and a cu field at 040-050 has
developed across north and central Georgia. Scattered convection is
ongoing near the ATL sites, and a TEMPO group for TSRA is in place
for the time the greatest coverage is anticipated, between 18-21Z.
SHRA/TSRA is expected to come to an end this evening by 02Z, and mid-
level stratus is once again possible in the overnight and early
morning hours Thursday. Prevailing winds are expected to remain from
the SE at 3-7 kts through the period, with the exception of gusts
associated with any TSRA that occurs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  30
Atlanta         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  30  20
Blairsville     68  86  68  86 /  20  50  30  50
Cartersville    72  92  72  93 /  20  50  40  30
Columbus        74  94  74  95 /  30  40  30  20
Gainesville     71  89  72  91 /  20  40  20  30
Macon           73  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  20
Rome            72  93  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  72  91  72  93 /  20  40  30  20
Vidalia         74  95  73  95 /  30  20   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. The main
hazards will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy
rain with any strong storms.

Heat Indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over central
and portions of north Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

For Thursday through Saturday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Some storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

For Sunday through Tuesday, Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across the area. Some storms will be strong with gusty
winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of the
area away from the mountains through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
637 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             LOUISE                  33.08N  84.93W
07/15/2020  E1.75 INCH       TROUP              GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ON OAK STREET. A
            TRUCK WINDSHIELD WAS REPORTED SHATTERED BY THE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000898

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
642 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             1 SW LOUISE             33.07N  84.95W
07/15/2020  E2.00 INCH       TROUP              GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL TO HEN-EGG SIZED HAIL FELL NEAR MT ZION
            CHURCH ROAD. CAR ALARMS WERE REPORTED GOING OFF, A HOUSE
            WINDOW AND A BACK PATIO TABLE WAS REPORTED DAMAGED DUE
            TO THE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000899

LREAVES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ042-052-053-152330-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COWETA...SOUTHERN CARROLL
AND NORTHEASTERN HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Powers Crossroads, or
8 miles southwest of Newnan...moving northwest at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Centralhatchee, Roopville, Powers Crossroads, Lowell, Handy and Plant
Wansley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3332 8482 3324 8495 3333 8513 3344 8516
      3349 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 133DEG 12KT 3333 8493

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ071-072-082-152345-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MONROE...NORTHWESTERN
BIBB AND SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 709 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Bolingbroke, or 10
miles northwest of Macon...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Forsyth, Wesleyan, Bolingbroke, Arkwright, Dames Ferry, Plant
Scherer and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3302 8359 3286 8366 3287 8395 3303 8398
      3313 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 109DEG 9KT 3295 8376

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE DEXTER            32.46N  83.04W
07/15/2020                   LAURENS            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON SCOOTER ROUTE
            BRANCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000900

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
714 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEXTER                  32.43N  83.06W
07/15/2020                   LAURENS            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 358 AND HIGHWAY 257.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000901

LREAVES