Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over portions
of north and central Georgia, primarily along an axis of higher
instability extending from Columbus to the northern metro area.
Coverage should continue to increase over the next couple of hours
as we get into peak afternoon heating. PoPs have been nudged up
across west and central Georgia this afternoon, as a result.

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
The upper ridge remains over the forecast area through the short
term. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase in moisture across
the area with rising PW values through Thursday. A weak surface
boundary continues across central GA and may serve as a focus for
convection. Have made pops more widespread this afternoon and
evening...but the better chances remain in the vicinity of the weak
boundary across western and central areas. Convection should
dissipate overnight tonight...with chances increasing again on
Thursday as the air mass becomes more unstable.

Some patchy fog is possible mainly for west central GA this morning
with clearing by 10 am. Max temperatures are again expected in the
low to mid 90s over much of the forecast area today and Thursday.
Heat index values will range from 100 to 104 over most areas except
the northeast mountains. Isolated values of near 105 are possible.
This still does not meet advisory criteria.

41

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The long term will continue to be characterized by some level of
upper level ridging across the area. This upper level ridge will
eventually weaken some but overall moisture will increase with time,
especially into next week. Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue but increase through the weekend and into next
week.

Forecast high temps will continue well into the 90s for much of the
area away from the mountains. This will allow Heat Indices of 100 to
105 degrees for much of north and central GA into next week with
spotty areas of 106 to 108 degrees. Heat Advisory criteria is 105 to
110 degrees and conditions will be monitored for possible Heat
Advisories.

BDL

AVIATION...
12z Update...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF forecast period.
Expect some mid level stratus SCT-BKN060-080 this morning and some
afternoon cumulus SCT040-050. Winds will be light and variable until
15z...then become southeast 5 to 7kts. Chances for convection will
be 20 to 30 percent this afternoon and evening. Have included VCSH
at most taf sites for now.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Mid-level
stratus over ATL has dissipated and a cu field at 040-050 has
developed across north and central Georgia. Scattered convection is
ongoing near the ATL sites, and a TEMPO group for TSRA is in place
for the time the greatest coverage is anticipated, between 18-21Z.
SHRA/TSRA is expected to come to an end this evening by 02Z, and mid-
level stratus is once again possible in the overnight and early
morning hours Thursday. Prevailing winds are expected to remain from
the SE at 3-7 kts through the period, with the exception of gusts
associated with any TSRA that occurs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  94  72 /  10  10  20   0
Atlanta         93  73  92  72 /  40  10  30   5
Blairsville     88  68  86  67 /  20  10  30  10
Cartersville    93  73  92  72 /  30  10  30   5
Columbus        96  75  95  74 /  40  20  40   5
Gainesville     93  72  91  72 /  20  10  30   5
Macon           96  73  95  72 /  30  20  30   0
Rome            95  72  93  72 /  20  10  30   5
Peachtree City  94  72  93  71 /  40  20  30   5
Vidalia         98  75  95  72 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. The main
hazards will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy
rain with any strong storms.

Heat Indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over central
and portions of north Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

For Thursday through Saturday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Some storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

For Sunday through Tuesday, Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across the area. Some storms will be strong with gusty
winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of the
area away from the mountains through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.