Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

An upper level ridge continues to slowly move eastward across the
eastern CONUS through the short term period, and will be centered
over the Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. With the ridge axis and
surface high pressure currently positioned to the east of the
forecast area, surface winds have shifted to a southeasterly
direction on the back side of the high pressure. Meanwhile,
advection of low-level tropical moisture is contributing to
increasing dewpoints and instability. Meanwhile, a weak surface
boundary remains stalled near the I-20 corridor, which is
maintaining deeper moisture and higher humidity along the boundary
and to the south.

Convection throughout the short term period will be diurnally-driven
in nature, and is already developing across north and central
Georgia. With increasing instability, an increase in
showers/thunderstorms is anticipated across the forecast area, with
slight chance PoPs or less only in northeast Georgia, and chance
PoPs elsewhere across the forecast area. Widespread severe weather
is not expected, but with SBCAPE values rising into the 2000-3000
J/kg range in west Georgia, a few storms could become strong to
marginally severe and capable of producing gusty winds, in addition
to frequent lightning and locally heavy rain.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish tonight. With very
light winds and humid conditions in central Georgia, some patchy fog
is possible in central Georgia in the early morning. The pattern
will remain consistent on Thursday as the ridge moves over the
Atlantic. With continued southerly flow, moisture advection will
continue and dewpoints will climb into the low to mid 70s areawide.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are once again expected on
Thursday. The highest rain chances will be in the high-end chance
PoPs range (40-50 percent) across majority of the forecast area,
with lower chances further east.

Both low and high temperatures will be consistently above normal
through the short term period. Notably, highs are expected to range
from the low to mid 90s in north Georgia and mid to upper 90s in
central Georgia. Considering deeper moisture in central Georgia,
heat indices from 100 to 104 will be observed along and south of the
Atlanta metro this afternoon. While some isolated areas will reach
or exceed heat indices 105 degrees in central Georgia, values are
overall not anticipated to reach advisory criteria. Heat index
values will be slightly lower on Thursday, ranging from 97-102
degrees across the majority of the forecast area.

King

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. The long term will
continue to be characterized by some level of upper level ridging
across the area. This will keep diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms and very warm temps through day 7. There are minor
differences in the models with increased moisture and timing but
they are all showing a similar summertime pattern. Overall the trend
is increased moisture as we go into next week, and temps remaining
mainly in the 90s. Right now it appears Heat Indices will reach into
the upper 90s to lower 100s each day as well. We will keep an eye on
things as we may need to issue a heat advisory sometime over the
next week or so.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Mid-level
stratus over ATL has dissipated and a cu field at 040-050 has
developed across north and central Georgia. Scattered convection is
ongoing near the ATL sites, and a TEMPO group for TSRA is in place
for the time the greatest coverage is anticipated, between 18-21Z.
SHRA/TSRA is expected to come to an end this evening by 02Z, and mid-
level stratus is once again possible in the overnight and early
morning hours Thursday. Prevailing winds are expected to remain from
the SE at 3-7 kts through the period, with the exception of gusts
associated with any TSRA that occurs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  72  94 /  20  30  10  30
Atlanta         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  30  20
Blairsville     68  86  68  86 /  20  50  30  50
Cartersville    72  92  72  93 /  20  50  40  30
Columbus        74  94  74  95 /  30  40  30  20
Gainesville     71  89  72  91 /  20  40  20  30
Macon           73  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  20
Rome            72  93  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
Peachtree City  72  91  72  93 /  20  40  30  20
Vidalia         74  95  73  95 /  30  20   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. The main
hazards will be gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy
rain with any strong storms.

Heat Indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over central
and portions of north Georgia this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

For Thursday through Saturday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected across the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Some storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

For Sunday through Tuesday, Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across the area. Some storms will be strong with gusty
winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of the
area away from the mountains through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ095-105-151945-
Dooly GA-Houston GA-
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOOLY AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Unadilla, or 11 miles
south of Perry...moving northwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Unadilla, Pinehurst, Elko, Grove Park and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3217 8383 3229 8389 3229 8385 3236 8385
      3236 8386 3238 8386 3238 8384 3240 8383
      3242 8369 3225 8361 3225 8362 3224 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 143DEG 10KT 3229 8375

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
407 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW HICKORY FLAT       34.15N  84.46W
07/15/2020  E60 MPH          CHEROKEE           GA   PUBLIC

            AN ESIMATED WIND SPEED OF 60 MPH WAS MEASURED FROM A
            ROOFTOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000887

LREAVES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW HICKORY FLAT      34.15N  84.43W
07/15/2020                   CHEROKEE           GA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON MEADOW BROOK DRIVE, INCLUDING 2
            MEDIUM-SIZED AND 1 LARGE-SIZED TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000888

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
414 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HICKORY FLAT       34.16N  84.40W
07/15/2020                   CHEROKEE           GA   PUBLIC

            PINE TREE DOWN BLOCKING A LANE ON PARK CREEK RIDGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000889

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
417 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

GAZ021-022-033-152045-
North Fulton GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
417 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...SOUTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Birmingham, or 10
miles west of Cumming...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph...pea sized hail...frequent lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milton, Buffington, Free Home, Hickory Flat, Drew, Union Hill,
Holbrook, Lathemtown, Ducktown and Birmingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3413 8420 3413 8442 3427 8446 3432 8431
      3427 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 181DEG 11KT 3419 8431

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE FAYETTEVILLE       33.47N  84.44W
07/15/2020                   FAYETTE            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A A TREE DOWN ON ALLENWOOD RD IN NE
            FAYETTEVILLE AFTER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000890

THIEM