Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Kansas City, MO

498 
WWUS53 KEAX 040534
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOC033-195-040545-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-200604T0545Z/
Carroll MO-Saline MO-
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTIES...

At 1233 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brunswick, or
9 miles north of Slater, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bosworth, Wakenda, Miami, Bogard and De Witt. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 9312 3927 9348 3929 9348 3927 9350
      3927 9365 3948 9368 3948 9327 3945 9325
      3947 9322 3944 9322 3944 9321 3943 9321
      3943 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 282DEG 21KT 3935 9310 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PP

457 
WWUS53 KEAX 040542
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOC033-195-040552-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-200604T0545Z/
Carroll MO-Saline MO-
1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3926 9312 3927 9348 3929 9348 3927 9350
      3927 9365 3948 9368 3948 9327 3945 9325
      3947 9322 3944 9322 3944 9321 3943 9321
      3943 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 282DEG 21KT 3934 9304 

$$

PP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020

Message of the Day: Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat
indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected today through at
least Sunday, with heat indices around 100 possible Friday. Given
the cooler spring, extra precaution needs to be taken when
outdoors this week. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks to remain safe. Severe storms are also possible
this afternoon and into tonight, as well as, Thursday and Friday night.
The main concerns are damaging winds and large hail.

It is a tough one today for storm timing and location, due to the
somewhat messy and weak set up. However, we do have a cold front
stretched across the area, roughly from Manhattan, KS through St.
Joseph, MO up to Lamoni, IA. The front will be the focus for storm
development, but it is tough to say when and where storm development
will really get going. Some short-lived storms developed across
northern MO this morning, likely in response to an initial subtle
shortwave trough, but have now pretty much diminished. Other
storms have been trying to develop, but haven't been very
successful. It looks like a subtle shortwave trough, most easily
visible at 700 mb, will move over our area this afternoon. This
plus extreme instability building up (4000-5000 J/kg) and no cap
will help develop storms. The front washes out a little this
afternoon though, making storm development more sporadic and
isolated. Models are still all over the place, but generally,
isolated to scattered storms should develop south of HWY 36 after
3 PM and move toward the south. The highest chances for storms
look to be in the central and eastern parts of MO, but chances do
still exist for everyone south of HWY 36. Any storm that does
develop could very well become severe, with CAPE as high as it is.
There isn't much shear to work with (~20 kts), but there could
certainly be enough to strengthen a storm to severe criteria for a
short time. Large hail up to quarter-sized and damaging winds up
to 65-70 mph are the main concerns. Tornadoes are very unlikely
today. PWATs are also approaching 2.0 inches today, so any storm
that develops will be an efficient rain maker and may pose a flash
flooding concern. This first round of storm activity is expected
to die down after 10 PM tonight for a brief time, then another
round of storms is possible. This second round is expected to be a
cluster of storms. They should develop in NE overnight and move
southeast into our area. There is a chance storms diminish by the
time they reach our area, as shown by a couple of models, but
general consensus is storms move into our area and then diminish
in the early morning hours Thursday. Strong winds and perhaps hail
are possible with this overnight round of storms, with CAPE
staying high (3000-4000 J/kg) and slightly better shear (30 kts).

Additional storms are possible Thursday night, but it looks like
better forcing is north of the area. If a storm can move into our
area it may become strong to severe with wind and hail being the
main concerns again. Storm chances come for Friday evening as well,
with a warm front stretched across southern IA/northern MO during
the day and a subtle shortwave trough moving through. CAPE again
will be very high (~5000 J/kg), with slightly better shear (30-35
kts), so strong to severe storms is possible again. For the weekend,
the upper level ridge builds back into the area, drying us out, but
keeping us warm and muggy.

As for temperatures, warm and muggy conditions are expected through
early next week. Friday looks like the warmest day with highs in the
upper 80s across northeast MO and mid 90s everywhere else. Dew
points will be high as well (low to mid 70s), which will result in
high indices Friday ranging from the low 90s up to 101 degrees. If
models continue to agree with this solution then we may need a heat
advisory.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020

A slowly southward moving front is currently positioned from
northeast to southwest between KSTJ and KMCI. Cu field near and
south of the front shows some cu towers trying to punch through
the cap but it appears the cap has been stronger than anticipated.
Therefore, have removed mention of VCTS for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. However, storms up across Nebraska are
forecast to merge and quickly start pushing southeastward through
the overnight hours. Model consensus has this complex moving
into the KC metro terminals between 07-09Z. VFR ceilings will
continue through much of the period with possible MVFR as the
complex moves through. Winds will remain out of the south but will
switch to northwesterly behind the front edge of the thunderstorm
complex before southerly flow returns.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...PietrychaP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
546 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
546 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening, with large
hail and strong winds being the primary concerns. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly south of I-70 overnight
tonight. More gusty winds will be possible with this overnight round.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a chance for strong to severe storms for Thursday and
Friday. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns with this
activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MOZ032-033-039-040-040515-
Saline MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Howard MO-
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHARITON...
SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHWESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN SALINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salisbury, moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, Huntsville, Glasgow, Keytesville, Armstrong, Clifton Hill
and Dalton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9305 3955 9298 3943 9252 3915 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 343DEG 10KT 3936 9286

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MOZ024-025-032-033-040530-
Macon MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Linn MO-
1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHARITON...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN LINN AND SOUTHWESTERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marceline, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marceline, Huntsville, Bevier, Bucklin, Callao, New Cambria,
Jacksonville, Wien, Excello and Prairie Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9311 3990 9269 3968 9244 3941 9252
      3953 9296 3959 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 318DEG 14KT 3970 9298

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MOZ031-032-039-040530-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-
1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON...CENTRAL
CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brunswick, or 14 miles northwest of Slater, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Brunswick, Bosworth, Wakenda, Miami, Bogard, De Witt and
Triplett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9357 3950 9356 3953 9297 3925 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 286DEG 17KT 3940 9320

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOZ030-031-038-039-044-045-054-040545-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Johnson MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-
Henry MO-
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENRY...WESTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN SALINE...LAFAYETTE
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorm
outflow winds along a line extending from near Malta Bend to near La
Monte to near Lincoln. Movement was west at 35 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this storm outflow.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Warrensburg, Clinton, Richmond, Odessa, Higginsville,
Lexington, Windsor, Knob Noster, Concordia, Holden, Sweet Springs,
Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Waverly, Wellington, Norborne,
Hardin, Leeton and Green Ridge.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 33 and
73.

LAT...LON 3821 9382 3883 9407 3934 9400 3930 9325
      3882 9331 3854 9319 3854 9328 3851 9330
      3851 9352 3821 9352 3821 9354 3822 9356
      3821 9357 3820 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 091DEG 31KT 3924 9341 3884 9346 3838 9326

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.43W
06/03/2020                   RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL TREE
            LIMBS DOWN, SCATTERED ACROSS THE CITY OF
            MOBERLY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE MOBERLY           39.45N 92.42W
06/04/2020                   RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANGEMENT REPORTS WATER COVERING
            HIGHWAY 24 EAST OF HIGHWAY 63.

&&