Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

132 
WGUS53 KEAX 040759
FFWEAX
MOC033-041-195-041000-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200604T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Chariton County in north central Missouri...
  Carroll County in north central Missouri...
  Northwestern Saline County in central Missouri...

* Until 500 AM CDT.

* At 258 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to
  three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already
  occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Carrollton, Brunswick, Norborne, Bosworth, Wakenda, Miami, Bogard,
  De Witt, Triplett and Stet.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 9302 3928 9348 3929 9348 3928 9350
      3929 9376 3951 9376 3952 9303

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Kurtz

914 
WGUS73 KEAX 040952 RRA
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
452 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOC033-041-195-041002-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200604T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chariton MO-Carroll MO-Saline MO-
452 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON...CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash Flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat, but Areal Flooding is still possible. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3926 9302 3928 9348 3929 9348 3928 9350
      3929 9376 3951 9376 3952 9303

$$

Barham

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020

Message of the Day: Temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat
indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected today through at
least Sunday, with heat indices around 100 possible Friday. Given
the cooler spring, extra precaution needs to be taken when
outdoors this week. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks to remain safe. Severe storms are also possible
this afternoon and into tonight, as well as, Thursday and Friday night.
The main concerns are damaging winds and large hail.

It is a tough one today for storm timing and location, due to the
somewhat messy and weak set up. However, we do have a cold front
stretched across the area, roughly from Manhattan, KS through St.
Joseph, MO up to Lamoni, IA. The front will be the focus for storm
development, but it is tough to say when and where storm development
will really get going. Some short-lived storms developed across
northern MO this morning, likely in response to an initial subtle
shortwave trough, but have now pretty much diminished. Other
storms have been trying to develop, but haven't been very
successful. It looks like a subtle shortwave trough, most easily
visible at 700 mb, will move over our area this afternoon. This
plus extreme instability building up (4000-5000 J/kg) and no cap
will help develop storms. The front washes out a little this
afternoon though, making storm development more sporadic and
isolated. Models are still all over the place, but generally,
isolated to scattered storms should develop south of HWY 36 after
3 PM and move toward the south. The highest chances for storms
look to be in the central and eastern parts of MO, but chances do
still exist for everyone south of HWY 36. Any storm that does
develop could very well become severe, with CAPE as high as it is.
There isn't much shear to work with (~20 kts), but there could
certainly be enough to strengthen a storm to severe criteria for a
short time. Large hail up to quarter-sized and damaging winds up
to 65-70 mph are the main concerns. Tornadoes are very unlikely
today. PWATs are also approaching 2.0 inches today, so any storm
that develops will be an efficient rain maker and may pose a flash
flooding concern. This first round of storm activity is expected
to die down after 10 PM tonight for a brief time, then another
round of storms is possible. This second round is expected to be a
cluster of storms. They should develop in NE overnight and move
southeast into our area. There is a chance storms diminish by the
time they reach our area, as shown by a couple of models, but
general consensus is storms move into our area and then diminish
in the early morning hours Thursday. Strong winds and perhaps hail
are possible with this overnight round of storms, with CAPE
staying high (3000-4000 J/kg) and slightly better shear (30 kts).

Additional storms are possible Thursday night, but it looks like
better forcing is north of the area. If a storm can move into our
area it may become strong to severe with wind and hail being the
main concerns again. Storm chances come for Friday evening as well,
with a warm front stretched across southern IA/northern MO during
the day and a subtle shortwave trough moving through. CAPE again
will be very high (~5000 J/kg), with slightly better shear (30-35
kts), so strong to severe storms is possible again. For the weekend,
the upper level ridge builds back into the area, drying us out, but
keeping us warm and muggy.

As for temperatures, warm and muggy conditions are expected through
early next week. Friday looks like the warmest day with highs in the
upper 80s across northeast MO and mid 90s everywhere else. Dew
points will be high as well (low to mid 70s), which will result in
high indices Friday ranging from the low 90s up to 101 degrees. If
models continue to agree with this solution then we may need a heat
advisory.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

The main impacts to the area will be a line of thunderstorms that
will be pushing through the area from the NW and another complex
of storms moving from east to west over central MO. These two
complexes will meet somewhere east of the KS/MO border with
widespread moderate rain, MVFR visibilities, lightning, and
potentially severe wind gusts near 60-70mph. All this will occur
in the first 6 hours of the TAFs, before things finally move off
to the SE by the early afternoon. Some rain may linger behind this
system longer than the TAFs have, but it is difficult to time
exactly when that will push east. VFR conditions are expected
after 18Z today with no precipitation in the forecast through the
end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
546 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
546 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening, with large
hail and strong winds being the primary concerns. Another round of
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly south of I-70 overnight
tonight. More gusty winds will be possible with this overnight round.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a chance for strong to severe storms for Thursday and
Friday. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns with this
activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MOZ024-025-032-033-040530-
Macon MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Linn MO-
1138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHARITON...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN LINN AND SOUTHWESTERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1138 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Marceline, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marceline, Huntsville, Bevier, Bucklin, Callao, New Cambria,
Jacksonville, Wien, Excello and Prairie Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 9311 3990 9269 3968 9244 3941 9252
      3953 9296 3959 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 318DEG 14KT 3970 9298

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MOZ031-032-039-040530-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-
1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHARITON...CENTRAL
CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brunswick, or 14 miles northwest of Slater, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Brunswick, Bosworth, Wakenda, Miami, Bogard, De Witt and
Triplett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9357 3950 9356 3953 9297 3925 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 286DEG 17KT 3940 9320

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOZ030-031-038-039-044-045-054-040545-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Johnson MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-
Henry MO-
1203 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENRY...WESTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHEASTERN RAY...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN SALINE...LAFAYETTE
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorm
outflow winds along a line extending from near Malta Bend to near La
Monte to near Lincoln. Movement was west at 35 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this storm outflow.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Warrensburg, Clinton, Richmond, Odessa, Higginsville,
Lexington, Windsor, Knob Noster, Concordia, Holden, Sweet Springs,
Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Waverly, Wellington, Norborne,
Hardin, Leeton and Green Ridge.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 33 and
73.

LAT...LON 3821 9382 3883 9407 3934 9400 3930 9325
      3882 9331 3854 9319 3854 9328 3851 9330
      3851 9352 3821 9352 3821 9354 3822 9356
      3821 9357 3820 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 091DEG 31KT 3924 9341 3884 9346 3838 9326

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.43W
06/03/2020                   RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL TREE
            LIMBS DOWN, SCATTERED ACROSS THE CITY OF
            MOBERLY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE MOBERLY           39.45N 92.42W
06/04/2020                   RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANGEMENT REPORTS WATER COVERING
            HIGHWAY 24 EAST OF HIGHWAY 63.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1214 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MOZ001-002-011-040600-
Atchison MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-
1214 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON...NORTHWESTERN HOLT AND
NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1214 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Peru to near Shubert to 6 miles northwest
of Sabetha. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Mound City, Rock Port, Fairfax, Craig, Rockport, Big Lake,
Westboro, Watson, Blanchard, Fortescue, Bigelow, Corning, Phelps City
and Indian Cave State Park.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 84 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9518 4026 9516 4000 9531
      4004 9542 4012 9539 4018 9548 4024 9547
      4026 9555 4030 9556 4031 9566 4034 9562
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4048 9570 4054 9565
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4057 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 265DEG 31KT 4054 9578 4029 9573 3998 9585

PP