River Flood Warning 96, NWS Kansas City, MO

897 
WGUS83 KEAX 281949
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Grand River near Pattonsburg affecting Daviess and Gentry Counties.

  Grand River near Gallatin affecting Daviess and Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Chillicothe affecting Linn and Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll...Chariton...Linn and 
  Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Brunswick affecting Carroll and Chariton Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC061-075-291948-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0096.200528T2132Z-200530T1624Z/
/PATM7.1.ER.200528T2132Z.200529T0600Z.200529T1624Z.UU/
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Pattonsburg.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  2:30 PM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 28.6 feet by early Friday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* At 25.0 feet...Low-lying farmland begins to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Pattonsburg     25   23.7   Thu 02 PM   28.6 early Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4004 9400 3996 9410 4014 9445 4020 9433

  

$$

MOC061-117-291948-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0097.200528T2235Z-200530T2044Z/
/GAZM7.1.ER.200528T2235Z.200529T1200Z.200529T2044Z.NO/
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Gallatin.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 23.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 28.9 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 26.0 feet...Low-lying woodlands and farmland along the river 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Gallatin        26   23.5   Thu 02 PM   28.9 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3996 9410 4004 9399 3983 9363 3974 9367

  

$$

MOC115-117-291948-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-200531T1811Z/
/CHZM7.2.ER.200527T1155Z.200529T1800Z.200530T1811Z.NO/
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Chillicothe.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 34.9 feet by 
  early Friday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 35.0 feet...U.S. Highway 65 south of Chillicothe is threatened 
  by flood water.
* At 28.0 feet...Rural roads are under water.
* At 24.0 feet...Low-lying cropland floods.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Chillicothe     24   24.0   Thu 02 PM   34.9 early Friday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3983 9363 3978 9343 3967 9343 3974 9367

  

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-291948-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-200602T2304Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.200526T1051Z.200530T0600Z.200601T2304Z.NO/
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Sumner.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 30.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 38.3 feet by 
  early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Monday evening.
* At 37.0 feet...State Highway 139 floods a half mile east of Sumner.
* At 28.0 feet...Rural roads are under water.
* At 26.0 feet...Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
* At 23.0 feet...Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Sumner          26   30.5   Thu 02 PM   38.3 early Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321 3951 9330

  

$$

MOC033-041-291948-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200603T1508Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200531T1800Z.200602T1508Z.UU/
249 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Brunswick.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  7:08 AM Thursday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.2 feet by 
  early Sunday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late 
  Tuesday morning.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas along the east bank of the Grand 
  River near the U.S. Highway 24 bridge begin to flood.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas occurs along the west 
  bank of the Grand River near the U.S. Highway 24 bridge about 1 
  mile west of Brunswick.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Brunswick       19   20.8   Thu 07 AM   26.2 early Sunday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3951 9330 3953 9321 3938 9307 3938 9313 3945 9327

  

$$

124 
WGUS83 KEAX 290116
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Grand River near Pattonsburg affecting Daviess and Gentry Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Grand River near Gallatin affecting Daviess and Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Chillicothe affecting Linn and Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Sumner affecting Carroll...Chariton...Linn and 
  Livingston Counties.

  Grand River near Brunswick affecting Carroll and Chariton Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC061-075-290146-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-200530T1624Z/
/PATM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Grand River near Pattonsburg.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 24.1 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 11.0 feet by Saturday morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Pattonsburg     25   23.7   Thu 07 PM   21.8 early Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4004 9400 3996 9410 4014 9445 4020 9433

  

$$

MOC061-117-300116-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200530T1240Z/
/GAZM7.1.ER.200528T2241Z.200529T0600Z.200529T1240Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Gallatin.
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 26.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.1 feet by 
  early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  morning.
* At 26.0 feet...Low-lying woodlands and farmland along the river 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Gallatin        26   26.4   Thu 08 PM   27.1 early Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3996 9410 4004 9399 3983 9363 3974 9367

  

$$

MOC115-117-300116-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-200531T1057Z/
/CHZM7.2.ER.200527T1155Z.200529T1200Z.200530T1057Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Chillicothe.
* until late Saturday night.
* At  7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 29.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 34.5 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  morning.
* At 28.0 feet...Rural roads are under water.
* At 24.0 feet...Low-lying cropland floods.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Chillicothe     24   29.7   Thu 08 PM   34.5 Friday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3983 9363 3978 9343 3967 9343 3974 9367

  

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-300116-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-200602T1831Z/
/SNZM7.2.ER.200526T1051Z.200530T0600Z.200601T1831Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Sumner.
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 32.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 38.0 feet by 
  early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
  Monday afternoon.
* At 37.0 feet...State Highway 139 floods a half mile east of Sumner.
* At 28.0 feet...Rural roads are under water.
* At 26.0 feet...Rural land adjacent to the river is flooded.
* At 23.0 feet...Bottomland 1 to 2 miles south of the gage begins to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Sumner          26   32.8   Thu 08 PM   38.0 early Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3967 9343 3978 9343 3970 9327 3953 9321 3951 9330

  

$$

MOC033-041-300116-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-200603T0947Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.200531T0000Z.200602T0947Z.UU/
816 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grand River near Brunswick.
* until late Tuesday night.
* At  4:31 PM Thursday the stage was 21.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.4 feet by 
  Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.
* At 22.0 feet...Low-lying areas along the east bank of the Grand 
  River near the U.S. Highway 24 bridge begin to flood.
* At 19.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying areas occurs along the west 
  bank of the Grand River near the U.S. Highway 24 bridge about 1 
  mile west of Brunswick.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Grand River
  Brunswick       19   21.3   Thu 05 PM   26.4 Saturday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3951 9330 3953 9321 3938 9307 3938 9313 3945 9327

  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

The wet pattern will continue through the day on Saturday as a
large upper low pressure system slowly moves eastward through the
day. The cut off low will be centered just to the south and east
of the area, and will help feed moisture into the area. The focus
for widespread precipitation will be a sagging cold frontal
boundary, which will nose into the area by mid morning. The
location of this boundary through the day will dictate where a
narrow corridor of heavy rain will form. High resolution model
guidance suggests a corridor running from southwest to northeast
running roughly from southern Jackson County toward northeast
Missouri will be the area to focus on for heavy rain. PWAT values
will range from 1.5" to 1.75" which are on the high end of the
percentiles for late may precipitable water, so rain rates will be
efficient. Instability will be modest, however some models
indicate some MU CAPE values approaching 1000+ J/kg so scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Widespread QPF along and within a
couple counties of the aforementioned SW/NE oriented line of
thunderstorms will be around 1 to 3 inches, however given the
efficient nature of this rain there could certainly be some areas
that see more than 3 inches. Basin average QPF will approach both
3 and 6 hours flash flood guidance, but shouldn't greatly surpass
it, despite some area going well beyond the flash flood guidance.
Therefore the expectation is for some isolated flash flooding, and
with local rivers and creeks already quite swollen there could be
some aggravation of those streams given the potential for several
inches of rain. The good news is that the boundary will be
somewhat progressive, so the line of rain should slowly creep
southeast with time.

The pattern will probably dry out a bit as we go into the weekend
and next week. There will be some passing chances for rain this
weekend, but nothing that should be even moderate impact. As the
mid level pattern transitions into more of an upstream ridge,
temperatures will be on the rise and will reflect more early to
mid summer temperatures and with the better mid level flow being
shunted north into the Northern Plains the focus for synoptically
evident precipitation will weaken in the immediate forecast area
in the day 2 through 7 time period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

Off and on rain through the early morning hours will become more
prevailing through the late morning and into the afternoon. Rain
rates will be efficient, so visibility will be limited during the
heavier showers and runways may experience some ponding of water.
Mid morning periods of thunderstorms will also be possible, which
would yield some gusty and eratic winds. Expect the heavier
activity to move out by early to mid afternoon, with lingering
showers holding on until evening. MVFR conditions are expected to
prevail, but periods of IFR and VFR will be possible as conditions
will be inconsistent through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to heavy rainfall with scattered thunderstorms are expected
 today. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible over
 saturated soils which may lead to flash flooding and may aggravate
 ongoing river flooding. Severe weather is not expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo