River Flood Warning 103, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
230 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a rather odd pattern in place
across our section of the country, resulting in some less than
typical weather for the tail end of May.

Water Vapor imagery this afternoon shows a messy pattern in place,
with a cutoff low slowly spinning over southern Missouri and
Arkansas, while a progressive trough shifts east along the Canadian
border. Also of note is the cold front that the Canadian border
trough is dragging through the Plains States. Currently the front
appears to be roughly along a line from the south side of Kansas
City to just south of Kirksville.

Weather for the rest of today...is going to be wet. The cutoff low
spinning over the MO-AR border is helping keep precipitable water
values excessively high as moisture from the western Gulf continues to
wrap north into it. This has resulted in precipitable water values
over 1.5 inches across eastern Kansas and Missouri. The moisture
wrapping around the cutoff low was already going to get squeezed out
some, but the cold front under cutting the larger cutoff circulation
has helped enhance rainfall efficiency through the morning and early
afternoon hours on the northwest side of the cutoff low; namely in
an arch from north central Missouri through west central Missouri.
And, while everyone is getting a bit of rain, some have gotten a lot
more than others depending on how the individual storms lined up. As
an example, the KC International Airport on the north side of town
picked up 0.13" of rain in the past 6 hours (as of 18Z), while an
airport on the southwest side of KC picked up 1.15" of rain in the
same time period. This has resulted in some flooding and the
issuance of several flood products across western Missouri and east
Kansas.

The rain is expected to persist for several more hours as
the cutoff low slowly shifts east, and it will be the movement of
this cutoff low that we will need to keep our eye on. The front
undercutting the low is starting to clear storms from the northwest
corner of Missouri and the north side of Kansas City, but the slow
progress of the front and cutoff low will keep the efficient rain
going for a few more hours across Kansas City before the activity
slides east. This will result in a continuation of flooding problems
in the KC Metro and points east through the early evening hours.

Otherwise, as we get past today, conditions will generally improve
as temperatures start warming and we remain dry through the weekend.
Friday will see temperatures remain a little below to around normal
for this time of year as a northwest flow takes residence across the
Central Plains in the wake of the exiting cutoff low. This should
make for a nice weekend. Then, the a ridge to our west will expand
in to the Plains early next work week, pushing temperatures up to
something more akin to early June, with highs by Monday in the 80s,
and 90s possible by Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

A persistent area of rain has been dominating the region over the
Kansas-Missouri state line this morning, and will continue to do
so through much of the afternoon hours. A cold front sweeping in
under the current band of rain will eventually help move the
storms off to the east, but several hours of rain are expected at
the KC terminals till then. Conditions will oscillate between IFR
and MVFR until the cold front can move the storms east. Otherwise,
over night winds will go a bit light and variable behind the
front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to heavy rainfall with scattered thunderstorms are expected
 today. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible over
 saturated soils which may lead to flash flooding and may aggravate
 ongoing river flooding. Severe weather is not expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
139 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     FLOOD            3 ENE CENTERVIEW        38.76N 93.80W
05/28/2020                   JOHNSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS STANDING WATER ACROSS
            SECONDARY ROADS AND SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
            WATER ACROSS FARM FIELDS AND THE WARRENSBURG
            GOLF COURSE.

0135 PM     FLOOD            LEE'S SUMMIT            38.91N 94.38W
05/28/2020                   JACKSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LEES SUMMIT PD REPORTS FLOODING AND PONDING
            OF WATER ON NUMEROUS ROADWAYS ACROSS THE
            CITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
227 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE RIVERSIDE          39.17N 94.60W
05/28/2020                   CLAY               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON THE ON-RAMP OF BRIARCLIFF TO
            SOUTHBOUND 9 HIGHWAY. THE INTERSECTION IS
            CLOSED.

&&

JTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE STILLWELL         38.80N 94.63W
05/28/2020                   JOHNSON            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS WATER OVER ROADS IN
            AREA OF 183RD AND MISSION ROAD.

&&

JTK