Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 347 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

The wet pattern will continue through the day on Saturday as a
large upper low pressure system slowly moves eastward through the
day. The cut off low will be centered just to the south and east
of the area, and will help feed moisture into the area. The focus
for widespread precipitation will be a sagging cold frontal
boundary, which will nose into the area by mid morning. The
location of this boundary through the day will dictate where a
narrow corridor of heavy rain will form. High resolution model
guidance suggests a corridor running from southwest to northeast
running roughly from southern Jackson County toward northeast
Missouri will be the area to focus on for heavy rain. PWAT values
will range from 1.5" to 1.75" which are on the high end of the
percentiles for late may precipitable water, so rain rates will be
efficient. Instability will be modest, however some models
indicate some MU CAPE values approaching 1000+ J/kg so scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Widespread QPF along and within a
couple counties of the aforementioned SW/NE oriented line of
thunderstorms will be around 1 to 3 inches, however given the
efficient nature of this rain there could certainly be some areas
that see more than 3 inches. Basin average QPF will approach both
3 and 6 hours flash flood guidance, but shouldn't greatly surpass
it, despite some area going well beyond the flash flood guidance.
Therefore the expectation is for some isolated flash flooding, and
with local rivers and creeks already quite swollen there could be
some aggravation of those streams given the potential for several
inches of rain. The good news is that the boundary will be
somewhat progressive, so the line of rain should slowly creep
southeast with time.

The pattern will probably dry out a bit as we go into the weekend
and next week. There will be some passing chances for rain this
weekend, but nothing that should be even moderate impact. As the
mid level pattern transitions into more of an upstream ridge,
temperatures will be on the rise and will reflect more early to
mid summer temperatures and with the better mid level flow being
shunted north into the Northern Plains the focus for synoptically
evident precipitation will weaken in the immediate forecast area
in the day 2 through 7 time period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

A persistent area of rain has been dominating the region over the
Kansas-Missouri state line this morning, and will continue to do
so through much of the afternoon hours. A cold front sweeping in
under the current band of rain will eventually help move the
storms off to the east, but several hours of rain are expected at
the KC terminals till then. Conditions will oscillate between IFR
and MVFR until the cold front can move the storms east. Otherwise,
over night winds will go a bit light and variable behind the
front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to heavy rainfall with scattered thunderstorms are expected
 today. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible over
 saturated soils which may lead to flash flooding and may aggravate
 ongoing river flooding. Severe weather is not expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo