Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1215 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.Discussion...
A rather wild ride from a very warm windy day today to a cooler
pleasant day tomorrow is expected tonight. In the short term, the
wind is certainly the story, as wind gusts continue to reach near
advisory levels in the northwestern counties, while 15 to 25 mph
are more common in the east. This wind will decrease with the loss
of mixing depth by early evening/sunset, which will begin the
reduction in the over all severe weather shear profile.

Tonight, the cold front will arrive in the far west around 8 PM
and exit far east around 4 AM. That will be the advertised severe
weather time frame, but certainly the available DCAPE and low
level shear interaction for any storm to interact with will be
mainly in the far northwest with a general decay in storm
intensity the farther east and late into the night we go. Thus,
this is more of a "can't rule out" severe weather night, than one
capable of becoming a widespread wind producer. Still, wind gusts
to 40-50 mph see very much possible with evening storms, and
overnight, some gusts to 45 mph still be possible, given the
strong winds aloft.

Rainfall tonight, should be in the quarter to half inch range for
locations northwest of a Fort Dodge to Mason City line, and up to
a quarter inch southeast of that axis.

Looking at Monday through Wednesday, very pleasant conditions are
expected with dry air, and highs reaching the upper 60s to mid
70s.

A strong cold front will arrive late Wednesday, with a pattern
change toward much cooler weather to finish the week. A deep and
broad upper trof is forecast over the Great Lakes, with highs in
the 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. This pattern is
likely to bring a killing freeze to much of the Upper Midwest if
they haven't seen it yet.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Predominantly VFR conditions through the period, with areas of
MVFR/IFR overnight with precipitation along a cold front.
Ongoing LLWS will abate overnight as a cold front moves through.
Showers and storms along the front are expected to gradually
diminish in both intensity and coverage while moving
east/northeast overnight into early Monday. In the wake of the
front, winds will become gusty from the northwest. Initially a 1-2
hour period of gusts 25-35 kts will be possible after the front
moves through before tapering off into range of 10-20 kts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Ervin
AVIATION...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-120945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa,
north central Iowa, northeast Iowa, northwest Iowa, south central
Iowa, southeast Iowa, southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will move across Iowa this evening and
overnight. The primary threat is damaging winds, mainly along
and west of Interstate 35 where the Storm Prediction Center has
placed a slight risk for severe weather. The storms are
anticipated to weaken overnight as they move east of Interstate
35, where a marginal risk for severe weather exists.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines, IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

IAC015-049-099-121-125-127-153-169-181-120615-
Polk-Story-Marshall-Madison-Marion-Jasper-Boone-Dallas-Warren-
1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT POLK...STORY...WESTERN
MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN MARION...WESTERN
JASPER...EASTERN BOONE...EASTERN DALLAS AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 115
AM CDT...

At 1220 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 11 miles north of Boone to near
Winterset. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Des Moines, Ames, West Des Moines, Ankeny, Urbandale, Johnston,
Clive, Indianola, Altoona, Waukee, Boone, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill,
Grimes, Nevada, Winterset, Adel, Windsor Heights, Carlisle and
Bondurant.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4220 9319 4128 9318 4130 9400 4221 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 267DEG 35KT 4221 9394 4131 9393

rw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND GST     BEDFORD                 40.67N 94.72W
10/12/2020  M61 MPH          TAYLOR             IA   MESONET

            RWIS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1237 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     TSTM WND GST     ADEL                    41.61N 94.03W
10/12/2020  M50 MPH          DALLAS             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines, IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

IAC039-053-117-121-125-159-175-181-185-120630-
Lucas-Decatur-Madison-Union-Marion-Wayne-Ringgold-Clarke-Warren-
1246 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WESTERN LUCAS...DECATUR...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...EASTERN UNION...SOUTHWESTERN MARION...WESTERN
WAYNE...EASTERN RINGGOLD...CLARKE AND SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

At 1246 AM CDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southeast of Avenue Of The Saints Event Center
to near Lamoni. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Osceola, Chariton, Leon, Lamoni, Melcher-Dallas, Sun Valley Lake,
Lakeside Casino, Avenue Of The Saints Event Center, Milo, Murray, St.
Charles, Humeston, New Virginia, Truro, Lacona, Kellerton, Grand
River, Van Wert, Lineville and Lucas.

LAT...LON 4131 9397 4128 9317 4058 9349 4057 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 268DEG 40KT 4124 9364 4056 9396

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