Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.Discussion...
A rather wild ride from a very warm windy day today to a cooler
pleasant day tomorrow is expected tonight. In the short term, the
wind is certainly the story, as wind gusts continue to reach near
advisory levels in the northwestern counties, while 15 to 25 mph
are more common in the east. This wind will decrease with the loss
of mixing depth by early evening/sunset, which will begin the
reduction in the over all severe weather shear profile.

Tonight, the cold front will arrive in the far west around 8 PM
and exit far east around 4 AM. That will be the advertised severe
weather time frame, but certainly the available DCAPE and low
level shear interaction for any storm to interact with will be
mainly in the far northwest with a general decay in storm
intensity the farther east and late into the night we go. Thus,
this is more of a "can't rule out" severe weather night, than one
capable of becoming a widespread wind producer. Still, wind gusts
to 40-50 mph see very much possible with evening storms, and
overnight, some gusts to 45 mph still be possible, given the
strong winds aloft.

Rainfall tonight, should be in the quarter to half inch range for
locations northwest of a Fort Dodge to Mason City line, and up to
a quarter inch southeast of that axis.

Looking at Monday through Wednesday, very pleasant conditions are
expected with dry air, and highs reaching the upper 60s to mid
70s.

A strong cold front will arrive late Wednesday, with a pattern
change toward much cooler weather to finish the week. A deep and
broad upper trof is forecast over the Great Lakes, with highs in
the 50s, and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. This pattern is
likely to bring a killing freeze to much of the Upper Midwest if
they haven't seen it yet.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

A breezy south to southeast wind at 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 30
kts at times will continue into the early evening, with VFR/clear
to partly cloudy conditions. A cold front with thunderstorms will
arrive in the 03-05Z time frame and bring a 1-2 hour period of
rain and gusty winds, with some threat of lightning.

This front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms east
across Iowa, with a period of MVFR/brief IFR weather with it. A
quick wind change to west to northwest will occur, and following
the rain, a period of strong northwest winds are expected which
will see gusts over 25 kts. By 10-12Z Monday, winds will decrease
somewhat and VFR weather should extend through the day Monday.

ERVIN

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-120945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa,
north central Iowa, northeast Iowa, northwest Iowa, south central
Iowa, southeast Iowa, southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will move across Iowa this evening and
overnight. The primary threat is damaging winds, mainly along
and west of Interstate 35 where the Storm Prediction Center has
placed a slight risk for severe weather. The storms are
anticipated to weaken overnight as they move east of Interstate
35, where a marginal risk for severe weather exists.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

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