Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Birmingham, AL

563 
WWUS54 KBMX 191238
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
738 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC017-081-123-191315-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200419T1315Z/
Lee AL-Tallapoosa AL-Chambers AL-
738 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN TALLAPOOSA AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES...

At 738 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Chambers County
Lake, or over Lafayette, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Opelika, Valley, Lanett, Dadeville, Camp Hill, Lafayette,
Stroud, La Fayette, Waverly, Lakeview, Cusseta, Beulah, Post Oak
Forks, Denson, Beans Mill, River View, Amity Park, Sturkie and
Bleecker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread 
wind damage across Tallapoosa County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a 
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8503 3266 8583 3286 8568 3304 8565
      3307 8522 3286 8519 3285 8516 3281 8517
      3278 8512 3276 8514 3274 8511 3269 8512
      3266 8509 3265 8511 3263 8508 3259 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 274DEG 53KT 3286 8538 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

40/Sizemore

924 
WWUS54 KBMX 191254
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
754 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC081-123-191304-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200419T1315Z/
Lee AL-Tallapoosa AL-
754 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LEE AND NORTHEASTERN
TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3276 8514 3275 8514 3275 8528 3273 8529
      3273 8540 3274 8543 3273 8543 3274 8549
      3273 8549 3273 8557 3274 8557 3273 8559
      3305 8546 3307 8522 3286 8519 3285 8516
      3281 8517 3278 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 273DEG 35KT 3285 8523 

$$

ALC017-191315-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200419T1315Z/
Chambers AL-
754 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY...

At 754 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Huguley, or
over Lanett, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Valley, Lanett, Lafayette, Stroud, La Fayette, Waverly, Lakeview,
Cusseta, Post Oak Forks, Denson, River View, Amity Park, Sturkie,
Buffalo, Chambers County Lake, Fredonia, Veasey Creek Park, Huguley,
Fairfax and Oak Bowery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 8514 3275 8514 3275 8528 3273 8529
      3273 8540 3274 8543 3273 8543 3274 8549
      3273 8549 3273 8557 3274 8557 3273 8559
      3305 8546 3307 8522 3286 8519 3285 8516
      3281 8517 3278 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 273DEG 35KT 3285 8523 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

40/Sizemore

537 
WWUS54 KBMX 191305
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
805 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC017-191315-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200419T1315Z/
Chambers AL-
805 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
815 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Birmingham.

LAT...LON 3276 8514 3275 8514 3275 8528 3273 8529
      3273 8540 3274 8543 3273 8543 3274 8549
      3273 8549 3273 8557 3274 8557 3273 8559
      3305 8546 3307 8522 3286 8519 3285 8516
      3281 8517 3278 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1305Z 275DEG 54KT 3284 8504 

$$

40/Sizemore

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
717 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0451 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

Multichannel water vapor imagery along with global model H500
fields agree in a well-defined trough over far Eastern New Mexico
while a shortwave trough was moving into the area from
Mississippi.

Hand surface analysis valid 09Z/4 am reveals the warm front
extending from south of Meridian, MS east to near Evergreen to
across the Wiregrass region of Southeast Alabama. Higher pressure
was present over the Carolinas while lower pressure was analyzed
to our west across the Mid South and Southern Mississippi River
Valley regions.

National surface analysis at 06z analyzed a surface low near the
Western Oklahoma Panhandle while surface high pressure was
centered over southeast Virginia.

Expect the surface warm front to continue advancing north over
the next few hours, likely to encompass much of our southwest
forecast area by mid morning.

Convection moving into our area from the west is elevated with
abundant lightning and a risk for large hail. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern with satellite-derived precipitable water
values around 1.4 inches in eastern Mississippi though sampling
data is sparce and may be questionable in quality.

As the warm front moves northward, expect temperatures and dew
points to increase as temperature were in the upper 60s with dew
points in the mid 60s closer to the Gulf of Mexico. We will
provide further updates as the morning progresses and as we
acquire additional information.

05

Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0222 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

Today and tonight.

A low-amplitude shortwave will move toward the Lower Mississippi
Valley today with severe weather expected in two waves. The first
wave will begin early this morning and continue through the late
morning as elevated thunderstorms develop north of a warm front.
These storms could produce damaging winds and hail up to golf ball
size or possibly larger.

A thermal gradient or effective front will develop as a result of
the morning convection and will be critical in determining the
northward extent of the afternoon and evening severe weather threat.
There is relatively good agreement on the placement of this
boundary which should be located near Montgomery around noon in a
WNW/ESE orientation. A late morning to early afternoon convective
minimum will give the atmosphere a chance to become quite
unstable south of the front. The most plausible scenario is for a
cluster of thunderstorms to form by early afternoon in eastern MS
and move eastward with the warm front beginning to slowly advance
to the northeast. The cluster of storms is likely to grow upscale
across our southwestern counties. Dewpoints around 70 F in the
warm sector and relatively cold temperatures aloft should yield in
SBCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg. 60-65 kt 500 mb flow and an increasing
low-level jet will be supportive of supercells along the warm
front, bowing segments, and mesovortices mainly across the
southern half of our area. Large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes appear possible. There could also be a few elevated
severe storms north of the warm front containing damaging winds
and large hail.

While much attention has been given to the tornado threat across
our southern counties, the low-level wind field is not particularly
impressive. A tendency for veering surface winds could temper the
tornado threat with any pre-QLCS supercells. However, moderate to
strong instability and localized backing could help offset this.
A relatively greater wind damage and embedded tornado threat may
evolve within the QLCS with mid-level flow nearly perpendicular
to spots within the convective line. Damaging wind gusts up to 80
mph seem plausible. If inflow is sufficient, this situation would
also support the chance of strong, EF-2 to EF-3 tornadoes within
mesovortices. Once the QLCS gains momentum, it should quickly move
across out southeastern counties and may be out of our forecast
area by 10 PM.

Flash flooding is also a significant threat this afternoon and
evening along and north of the warm front due to training
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0245 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/

Monday through Thursday.

With that initial storm system out of the way, we can start to look
towards the rest of the week. The upper level flow remains largely
zonal to WSW Monday and Tuesday, with dry weather indicated both
days. Another southern stream shortwave trough is forecast by the
models to move across the southern Plains and into the OH/TN valleys
in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The associated surface low is
forecast to track (roughly/generally speaking) from the ArkLaTex to
eastern KY or TN, with lowest pressures in the 990s.

Global models have now shown varying degrees of favorable
instability parameters, shear parameters, and severe weather
composite index parameters for at least a few runs now. I think
there is enough general agreement in the models now to introduce at
least a small confidence mention of severe/tornadoes in the HWO for
late Wednesday into Thursday. As per usual, there's still some
spatial, temporal, and magnitudinal (?) details to be hashed out.
But right now, it appears the main time frame of concern is late
Wednesday (probably overnight) into Thursday.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions have deteriorated this morning from southwest to
northeast as round one of strong to severe storms moves through.
There may be a lull in the action once the warm front moves
through, but isolated to scattered storms could develop and impact
flights. The bigger impact to TAFs will be in the afternoon after
18z in the west and possible through the end of the in the
southeast. Will continue to evaluate through the period. Multiple
AWW for MGM, TOI, and EET will likely be needed.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for ASN until further notice due to
persisting communication issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm front will move northward this morning with multiple waves
of showers and storms expected through the evening. Dry
conditions should return for Monday with RH values well above
critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  55  71  47  74 / 100 100  30   0   0
Anniston    68  56  73  48  75 / 100 100  20   0   0
Birmingham  70  57  73  50  76 / 100 100  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  57  74  51  78 / 100 100   0   0   0
Calera      71  58  73  50  75 / 100 100  10   0   0
Auburn      70  61  73  51  75 / 100 100  20   0   0
Montgomery  77  62  75  52  79 / 100 100   0   0   0
Troy        79  64  78  54  79 / 100 100  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...
Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...
Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-201115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
313 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There will be two waves of severe storms today. The first wave is
ongoing and is expected to continue through 11 AM. A few severe
storms could produce hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up
to 60 mph. This threat covers all of Central Alabama.

A second, stronger wave of severe storms is expected this afternoon
and evening from 2 PM to midnight. The greatest threat for severe
storms and the tornado threat should remain across the southern half
of Central Alabama or along and south of a line from Sumter County to
Chilton County to Chambers County. Strong tornadoes, damaging winds
up to 80 mph and golf ball size will be possible in this area. To the
north, a few storms could produce damaging winds and quarter size
hail.

Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding this afternoon
and evening.

Minor flooding is occurring along portions of the Tombigbee and
Black Warrior river basins. Please see flood statements for specific
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Tombigbee and
Black Warrior river basins through Sunday. Please see flood
statements for specific details.

There is a threat of another round of severe thunderstorms,
including tornadoes, across all of central Alabama from late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
today and tonight. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines
in regards to travel.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
648 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 AM     TSTM WND DMG     THORSBY                 32.92N 86.71W
04/19/2020                   CHILTON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE
            THORSBY AREA. A FEW REPORTS OF ROADS BLOCKED
            BY FALLING TREES. A FEW REPORTS OF TREES
            FALLEN ONTO VEHICLES. A FEW TREES FELL ON
            SOME STRUCTURES. REPORTS OF SOME POWER LINES
            DOWN.

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ012-013-022-023-191230-
Fayette AL-Pickens AL-Tuscaloosa AL-Lamar AL-
657 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...SOUTHERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 657 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ashcraft Corner, or 10 miles south of Fayette, moving east at 60 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Reform, Berry, Kennedy, Belk, Ashcraft Corner, Bankston,
Boley Springs, Samantha, Binion Creek Landing, Cody, Stone Wall,
Whitson, Moores Bridge, Richard Arthur Field, Windham Springs,
Fayette County Public Lake, New Lexington, Bevill State College
Fayette and Wiley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Birmingham.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8803 3378 8755 3376 8753 3369 8753
      3369 8744 3367 8742 3360 8742 3360 8738
      3336 8744 3341 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 270DEG 54KT 3355 8790

40/Sizemore

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
710 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     HAIL             ALEXANDER CITY          32.94N 85.95W
04/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       TALLAPOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED. POWER OUTAGES
            WITH POSSIBLE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
712 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL FIELD AIRPORT   32.91N 85.96W
04/19/2020  E56 MPH          TALLAPOOSA         AL   AWOS

            KALX AWOS REPORTS PEAK WIND GUST OF 49 KNOTS
            OR 56 MPH.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
717 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     HAIL             ALEXANDER CITY          32.94N 85.95W
04/19/2020  E1.75 INCH       TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN ALEX CITY.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
721 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HANOVER                 33.00N 86.20W
04/19/2020                   COOSA              AL   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A MANUFACTURED HOME.
            SEA CAMPER SITTING ON GROUND MOVED SIDEWAYS.
            A PIECE OF FARM EQUIPMENT OVERTURNED. HAIL
            AT LEAST DIME SIZED REPORTED.

&&

JH