Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Birmingham, AL

397 
WWUS54 KBMX 191001
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
501 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC107-191010-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Pickens AL-
501 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3314 8788 3315 8784 3352 8784 3352 8767
      3361 8763 3359 8732 3352 8732 3350 8726
      3349 8733 3346 8734 3331 8716 3328 8707
      3325 8707 3319 8720 3313 8720 3313 8728
      3301 8732 3300 8742 3290 8742 3281 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 256DEG 48KT 3355 8778 3325 8776 3289 8793 

$$

ALC063-065-125-191100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Greene AL-Hale AL-
501 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR TUSCALOOSA...NORTHEASTERN GREENE AND NORTHERN HALE COUNTIES...

At 500 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles east of Ashcraft Corner to near Coker to near
Eutaw, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Eutaw, Holt, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood,
Coaling, Vance, Coker, Akron, Union, Samantha, McFarland Mall, Lake
Lurleen State Park, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater, Tuscaloosa Regional
Airport, Lake Wildwood, Knoxville and Mercedes Benz Of Alabama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8788 3315 8784 3352 8784 3352 8767
      3361 8763 3359 8732 3352 8732 3350 8726
      3349 8733 3346 8734 3331 8716 3328 8707
      3325 8707 3319 8720 3313 8720 3313 8728
      3301 8732 3300 8742 3290 8742 3281 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 256DEG 48KT 3355 8778 3325 8776 3289 8793 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

942 
WWUS54 KBMX 191010
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
510 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC063-065-125-191100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Greene AL-Hale AL-
510 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR TUSCALOOSA...EAST CENTRAL GREENE AND NORTHERN HALE COUNTIES...

At 510 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Samantha to Tuscaloosa to near Akron, moving east
at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Holt, Moundville, Lake View, Brookwood,
Coaling, Vance, Coker, Akron, Samantha, McFarland Mall, Lake Lurleen
State Park, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater, Tuscaloosa Regional Airport,
Lake Wildwood, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, Binion Creek Landing,
Tannehill Ironworks State Park and Abernant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8785 3323 8767 3348 8771 3355 8732
      3352 8732 3350 8726 3349 8733 3346 8734
      3331 8716 3328 8707 3325 8707 3319 8720
      3313 8720 3313 8728 3301 8732 3300 8742
      3290 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 262DEG 58KT 3345 8757 3325 8753 3289 8770 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

919 
WWUS54 KBMX 191017
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
517 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC063-125-191026-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Greene AL-
517 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TUSCALOOSA AND EAST CENTRAL
GREENE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3288 8781 3289 8782 3290 8777 3291 8776
      3293 8777 3293 8776 3295 8773 3295 8775
      3296 8774 3298 8775 3299 8771 3301 8771
      3300 8742 3290 8742 3284 8783 3285 8782
      3286 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 256DEG 48KT 3346 8751 3326 8747 3290 8764 

$$

ALC065-191100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Hale AL-
517 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HALE COUNTY...

At 516 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Samantha to near Holt to near
Akron, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Moundville, Akron, Mound State Park, Elliots Creek, Moundville
Airport, Phipps and Havana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8781 3289 8782 3290 8777 3291 8776
      3293 8777 3293 8776 3295 8773 3295 8775
      3296 8774 3298 8775 3299 8771 3301 8771
      3300 8742 3290 8742 3284 8783 3285 8782
      3286 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 256DEG 48KT 3346 8751 3326 8747 3290 8764 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

010 
WWUS54 KBMX 191027
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
527 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC065-191100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Hale AL-
527 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HALE COUNTY...

At 527 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Low Gap, or 14
miles west of Brent, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Phipps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8762 3301 8759 3300 8742 3290 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 264DEG 58KT 3298 8741 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

611 
WWUS54 KBMX 191042
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
542 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALC065-191052-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200419T1100Z/
Hale AL-
542 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HALE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3287 8762 3301 8759 3300 8742 3290 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 256DEG 48KT 3303 8717 

$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
222 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0222 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

Today and tonight.

A low-amplitude shortwave will move toward the Lower Mississippi
Valley today with severe weather expected in two waves. The first
wave will begin early this morning and continue through the late
morning as elevated thunderstorms develop north of a warm front.
These storms could produce damaging winds and hail up to golf ball
size or possibly larger.

A thermal gradient or effective front will develop as a result of
the morning convection and will be critical in determining the
northward extent of the afternoon and evening severe weather threat.
There is relatively good agreement on the placement of this
boundary which should be located near Montgomery around noon in a
WNW/ESE orientation. A late morning to early afternoon convective
minimum will give the atmosphere a chance to become quite
unstable south of the front. The most plausible scenario is for a
cluster of thunderstorms to form by early afternoon in eastern MS
and move eastward with the warm front beginning to slowly advance
to the northeast. The cluster of storms is likely to grow upscale
across our southwestern counties. Dewpoints around 70 F in the
warm sector and relatively cold temperatures aloft should yield in
SBCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg. 60-65 kt 500 mb flow and an increasing
low-level jet will be supportive of supercells along the warm
front, bowing segments, and mesovortices mainly across the
southern half of our area. Large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes appear possible. There could also be a few elevated
severe storms north of the warm front containing damaging winds
and large hail.

While much attention has been given to the tornado threat across
our southern counties, the low-level wind field is not particularly
impressive. A tendency for veering surface winds could temper the
tornado threat with any pre-QLCS supercells. However, moderate to
strong instability and localized backing could help offset this.
A relatively greater wind damage and embedded tornado threat may
evolve within the QLCS with mid-level flow nearly perpendicular
to spots within the convective line. Damaging wind gusts up to 80
mph seem plausible. If inflow is sufficient, this situation would
also support the chance of strong, EF-2 to EF-3 tornadoes within
mesovortices. Once the QLCS gains momentum, it should quickly move
across out southeastern counties and may be out of our forecast
area by 10 PM.

Flash flooding is also a significant threat this afternoon and
evening along and north of the warm front due to training
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0245 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/

Monday through Thursday.

With that initial storm system out of the way, we can start to look
towards the rest of the week. The upper level flow remains largely
zonal to WSW Monday and Tuesday, with dry weather indicated both
days. Another southern stream shortwave trough is forecast by the
models to move across the southern Plains and into the OH/TN valleys
in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The associated surface low is
forecast to track (roughly/generally speaking) from the ArkLaTex to
eastern KY or TN, with lowest pressures in the 990s.

Global models have now shown varying degrees of favorable
instability parameters, shear parameters, and severe weather
composite index parameters for at least a few runs now. I think
there is enough general agreement in the models now to introduce at
least a small confidence mention of severe/tornadoes in the HWO for
late Wednesday into Thursday. As per usual, there's still some
spatial, temporal, and magnitudinal (?) details to be hashed out.
But right now, it appears the main time frame of concern is late
Wednesday (probably overnight) into Thursday.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions to begin to deteriorate through the morning from
southwest to northeast as round one of strong to severe storms
move through. There may be a lull in the action once the warm
front moves through, but isolated to scattered storms could
develop and impact flights. The bigger impact to TAFs will be in
the afternoon after 18z in the west and possible through the end
of the in the southeast. Will continue to evaluate through the
period. Multiple AWW for MGM, TOI, and EET will likely be needed
through the second half of this cycle.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for ASN until further notice due to
persisting communication issues.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move through this morning with scattered rain
showers. Dry conditions are expected this afternoon with northwest
winds and RH values in the 35-45 percent range. A warm front will
move northward Sunday morning with multiple waves of showers and
storms expected through Sunday evening. Dry conditions should
return for Monday with RH values well above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  55  71  47  74 / 100 100  10   0   0
Anniston    68  56  73  48  75 / 100 100  10   0   0
Birmingham  70  57  73  50  76 / 100 100  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  57  74  51  78 / 100 100   0   0   0
Calera      71  58  73  50  75 / 100 100  10   0   0
Auburn      70  61  73  51  75 / 100 100  10   0   0
Montgomery  77  62  75  52  79 / 100 100   0   0   0
Troy        79  64  78  54  79 / 100 100  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through late
tonight for the following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...
Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...
Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...
Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-201115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
313 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There will be two waves of severe storms today. The first wave is
ongoing and is expected to continue through 11 AM. A few severe
storms could produce hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up
to 60 mph. This threat covers all of Central Alabama.

A second, stronger wave of severe storms is expected this afternoon
and evening from 2 PM to midnight. The greatest threat for severe
storms and the tornado threat should remain across the southern half
of Central Alabama or along and south of a line from Sumter County to
Chilton County to Chambers County. Strong tornadoes, damaging winds
up to 80 mph and golf ball size will be possible in this area. To the
north, a few storms could produce damaging winds and quarter size
hail.

Training thunderstorms may result in flash flooding this afternoon
and evening.

Minor flooding is occurring along portions of the Tombigbee and
Black Warrior river basins. Please see flood statements for specific
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Tombigbee and
Black Warrior river basins through Sunday. Please see flood
statements for specific details.

There is a threat of another round of severe thunderstorms,
including tornadoes, across all of central Alabama from late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
today and tonight. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines
in regards to travel.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ022-030-031-190830-
Greene AL-Pickens AL-Sumter AL-
237 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paulette, or 19 miles southwest of Aliceville, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aliceville, Gordo, McMullen, Garden, Mantua, Panola, Jena, Benevola,
Johnston Lake, Geiger, Gainesville Lake Campground, Warsaw, Dillburg,
George Downer Airport, Kirk, Pleasant Ridge, Pioneer, Cochrane and
Lewiston.

LAT...LON 3309 8833 3338 8784 3308 8783 3285 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 238DEG 46KT 3294 8841

87/GRANTHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
427 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ022-030-031-191015-
Greene AL-Pickens AL-Sumter AL-
427 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS...NORTHERN
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 427 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cooksville, or 16 miles southwest of Aliceville, moving east at 60
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Union, New West Greene, Mantua, Panola, West Greene, Knoxville,
Geiger, Snoddy, Warsaw, Clinton, Pleasant Ridge, Cochrane and
Lewiston.

LAT...LON 3306 8833 3312 8784 3302 8783 3302 8771
      3299 8771 3298 8775 3296 8774 3295 8775
      3295 8773 3294 8774 3293 8776 3293 8777
      3291 8776 3290 8777 3286 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 263DEG 51KT 3296 8837

87/GRANTHAM