Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...

Through tonight.

Last batch of convection associated with the current system is
forecast to push across central Alabama the rest of this afternoon
into this evening. SPC mesoanalysis shows a nose of instability
(MLCAPEs up to 1500 J/kg) into the western sections of the CWA at
2000 UTC, just ahead of the advancing surface cold front. Not
surprisingly, band of convection has managed to fire up within
this instability nose, and will need to be watched during the rest
of the afternoon. Fortunately, low level pressure gradient has
been weaker than previous couple severe-producing weather systems.
The resultant weaker advection of the warm sector should limit
further destabilization once we lose the heating of the day.
Therefore, we anticipate a decreasing trend in storm strength
after that time. Models depict all rain should move east of our
area at some point overnight, and we should have rain free
conditions by 12z Friday.

/61/

.LONG TERM...

Friday through Thursday.

The rather progressive weather pattern will bring another chance
of rain and thunderstorms into the northern part of the area
Friday night into Saturday. Given the timing of this system, and
the rather quick turnaround after the current system, it still
appears that instability/shear parameters are (collectively)
insufficient for severe weather.

Dry weather returns on Sunday, which will last through at least
Monday. Yet another upper level shortwave trough will bring more
rain chances into area late Tuesday into Wednesday. As per usual,
there's quite a bit of model spread on the details associated with
this system.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

The morning large thunderstorm complex has exited the area to the
east/southeast. In its wake, additional showers and thunderstorms
are trying to develop. It appears that any re-development that
does occur will not be nearly as widespread as the morning
convection. Cold frontal passage this evening will be marked by a
wind shift to a more southwesterly and westerly direction, and
decrease in both ceiling heights and (ultimately) cloud coverage.
Some models do suggest some light fog or lowered ceilings coming
back into the south or east counties overnight.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible through this
afternoon, with lighter rain tonight. Dry conditions return for
Friday, but rain chances will return to start the weekend as a
quick moving front slides across the north. Dry conditions and sub
35 percent RH will return for the first of the week. Another
strong storm system is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
with more heavy rains and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  75  54  75  48 /  50   0  20  40  10
Anniston    55  76  55  76  49 /  50   0  20  30  10
Birmingham  55  77  58  76  51 /  50   0  30  30  10
Tuscaloosa  54  78  59  78  51 /  40   0  30  20   0
Calera      54  76  58  77  51 /  50   0  20  20  10
Auburn      56  76  56  78  52 /  50   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  57  79  58  81  54 /  40   0   0  10  10
Troy        59  80  59  83  56 /  40   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
400 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-241200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
400 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a chance of severe storms this morning through 10 AM CDT,
mainly south of a line from Demopolis to Auburn. Additional severe
storms are possible this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-20.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Winds
outside of storms could gust to near 35 mph this morning.

Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will also be possible,
especially south and west of a Tuscaloosa to Montgomery line.

Minor river flooding will continue across the southern half of
Central Alabama. Please see flood statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Minor to moderate river flooding will continue through the week.
Please see flood statements for specific details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines in regards
to travel.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

ALZ033-034-232100-
Bibb AL-Perry AL-
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN BIBB
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Mertz, or 11 miles northeast of Greensboro, moving
east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Centreville, Lawley, Talladega National Forest, West
Centreville, Mertz, Trio, Ellards, Bibb County Airport and Six Mile.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8742 3293 8742 3301 8699 3284 8688
      3284 8702 3281 8702 3275 8747 3283 8747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 257DEG 39KT 3283 8747

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             2 SSW EMELLE            32.70N 88.33W
04/23/2020  E1.00 INCH       SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS 1 INCH HAIL REPORT TO
            LOCATION OF EVENT VS. LOCATION AT TIME OF
            CALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
331 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HAIL             3 W WALDEN QUARTERS     32.74N 87.91W
04/23/2020  E0.25 INCH       GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N TISHABEE            32.66N 88.00W
04/23/2020                   GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN REPORTED AT CR50/CR72.

&&

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