Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1131 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/

The probability of severe thunderstorms the remainder of the day
is limited from previous concerns. But severe thunderstorms are
still possible with the main threat being large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a tornado.

The large shower and thunderstorm complex has exited south and
east late this morning. The complex has increased all the way
back to offshore of Louisiana. A weak low pressure area was
located in northern Mississippi with a warm from just southwest of
Tuscaloosa to Selma.

First things first, several locations received non-thunderstorm
wind damage from gradient winds early this morning. It appears a
wake low/gravity wave formed on the back side of the precipitation
shield and produced wind gusts of 30-55 mph. The feature
responsible for this activity has exited the area and no real
gradient has appeared back in the warm sector over Mississippi.
Therefore, the Wind Advisory has been canceled for the remainder
of the afternoon.

Secondly, a large area along and north of Interstate 20 received
1-2 inches of rain the past 12 hours or so. Some localized spots
measured higher amounts. From the setup expected this afternoon,
some areas may received up to a half inch of rain or more. But
widespread heavy amounts are not anticipated this afternoon and
therefore the Flash Flood Watch will be canceled.

Lastly, the severe potential this afternoon has already been taken
down a notch and another adjustment is necessary. The new severe
graphic will illustrate a slight chance in the center of Central
Alabama. Confidence on any recovery southeast is questionable and
will advertise marginal. Also, far northwest will be left at
marginal. Central sections of the area will see a few convergent
bands setup which will be the focus for potential severe storms.
Once these bands weaken around sunset, the threat should be over.
Additionally, a few storms may develop near the cold front/dry
line as it moves in this afternoon. As far as tornadoes are
concerned, it appears the surface winds will be veered enough that
the potential is low but not zero.

Pops have been reduced to account for the expected conditions and
current radar trends. High temperatures have been bumped up
(especially in the southwest) due to thin spots and holes in the
overcast.

75

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0327 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020/

Friday through Thursday.

Dry conditions will be in place on Friday and then a quick moving
cold front will move through on through Friday night into
Saturday. A few thunderstorms will be possible overnight in the
north, but severe weather is not anticipated with this system.
Dry weather returns on Sunday and last through Tuesday. Another
system will then work into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Will need to keep an eye on this system as the time frame get
closer for strong to severe storms as we will see an increase in
moisture and instability with it.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

The morning large thunderstorm complex has exited the area to the
east/southeast. In its wake, additional showers and thunderstorms
are trying to develop. It appears that any re-development that
does occur will not be nearly as widespread as the morning
convection. Cold frontal passage this evening will be marked by a
wind shift to a more southwesterly and westerly direction, and
decrease in both ceiling heights and (ultimately) cloud coverage.
Some models do suggest some light fog or lowered ceilings coming
back into the south or east counties overnight.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible through this
afternoon, with lighter rain tonight. Dry conditions return for
Friday, but rain chances will return to start the weekend as a
quick moving front slides across the north. Dry conditions and sub
35 percent RH will return for the first of the week. Another
strong storm system is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
with more heavy rains and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  75  54  75  48 /  50   0  20  40  10
Anniston    55  76  55  76  49 /  50   0  20  30  10
Birmingham  55  77  58  76  51 /  50   0  30  30  10
Tuscaloosa  54  78  59  78  51 /  40   0  30  20   0
Calera      54  76  58  77  51 /  50   0  20  20  10
Auburn      56  76  56  78  52 /  50   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  57  79  58  81  54 /  40   0   0  10  10
Troy        59  80  59  83  56 /  40   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
400 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-241200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
400 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a chance of severe storms this morning through 10 AM CDT,
mainly south of a line from Demopolis to Auburn. Additional severe
storms are possible this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-20.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Winds
outside of storms could gust to near 35 mph this morning.

Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will also be possible,
especially south and west of a Tuscaloosa to Montgomery line.

Minor river flooding will continue across the southern half of
Central Alabama. Please see flood statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Minor to moderate river flooding will continue through the week.
Please see flood statements for specific details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today. Please follow all local, state, and CDC guidelines in regards
to travel.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
932 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PIEDMONT                33.92N 85.61W
04/23/2020                   CALHOUN            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN
            AROUND PIEDMONT.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW DADEVILLE         32.84N 85.79W
04/23/2020                   TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN
            DADEVILLE. EMA OFFICE ON BACK-UP POWER.

0754 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HORSESHOE BEND NMP      32.98N 85.74W
04/23/2020                   TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ACROSS ROADWAY.

0720 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RAMER                   32.05N 86.22W
04/23/2020                   MONTGOMERY         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES IN ROADWAY.

0718 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S SNOWDOUN            32.21N 86.29W
04/23/2020                   MONTGOMERY         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT
            GROVE RD AND HWY 331.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE MOUNTAIN           33.69N 85.83W
04/23/2020                   CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            *** 2 INJ ***
            FALLING TREES INJURED 2 FIRST RESPONDERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1056 AM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SE DEMOPOLIS          32.50N 87.82W
04/23/2020                   MARENGO            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TIN ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A CHURCH.

&&

MAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
103 PM CDT THU APR 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW CALHOUN           32.04N 86.56W
04/23/2020                   LOWNDES            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF CALHOUN
            CUTOFF RD AND CR-37.

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE CLOVER HILL       32.02N 86.65W
04/23/2020                   LOWNDES            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF CR-45 AND
            KNIGHT PLACE RD.

0639 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE COLLIRENE         32.19N 86.78W
04/23/2020                   LOWNDES            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT THE CORNER OF COLLIRENE CUTOFF
            RD AND CR-9.

&&