River Flood Warning 37, NWS Birmingham, AL

312 
WGUS84 KBMX 100243
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
843 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020


...The flood warnings continue for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights and Suttle...

.A Flood Warning continues along the Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights
and Suttle due to expected heavy rainfall through the day on Tuesday. 
Additional heavy rainfall is possible through the end of this upcoming 
week which will cause water levels to remain elevated or increase 
further. Interests should closely monitor the latest river forecasts 
through the upcoming week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Monday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-073-117-101443-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0037.200211T1257Z-200213T0329Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.200211T1257Z.200212T0000Z.200212T1529Z.UU/
843 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* from Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening...or until the Warning is
  cancelled.
* AT 7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 2.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Tuesday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 19.2 feet by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 20 feet...Water overflows the yards of some homes near
  the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC047-105-101443-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.200210T0600Z.200215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
843 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Suttle.
* until further notice...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 8 PM Sunday the stage was 31.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 32 feet.
* Forecast...initially crest near 32 feet after midnight tonight, then 
  begin to fall. The river will then rise above flood stage again by 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 32 feet...Flooding of pasture lands and low-lying 
  agricultural lands occurs in the Suttle area. 


&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

164 
WGUS84 KBMX 101514
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
914 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...
...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River at Centreville...
...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River Near Suttle...
...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River at Marion 
Junction...

.Heavy rainfall of two to four inches is forecast over the Cahaba 
River basin during the next 48 hours...and a flood warning remains 
in effect along the river.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-073-117-110312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0037.200211T0839Z-200213T0408Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.200211T0839Z.200212T0000Z.200212T1608Z.UU/
914 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* from late tonight to Wednesday evening...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT  8:30 AM Monday the stage was 2.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage after midnight tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 20.8 feet by tomorrow evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 20 feet...Water overflows the yards of some homes near
  the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC007-047-105-110312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0038.200211T1540Z-200214T0000Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200211T1540Z.200212T1200Z.200213T1200Z.NO/
914 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* from Tuesday morning to Thursday evening...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT 8:15 AM Monday the stage was 7.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Tuesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 27.8 feet by Wednesday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-110312-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.200210T0330Z.200215T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Suttle.
* until further notice...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 9:00 AM Monday the stage was 31.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 32 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday evening and continue 
  to rise to near 36 feet by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 32 feet...Flooding of pasture lands and low-lying 
  agricultural lands occurs in the Suttle area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

ALC047-105-110312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0039.200214T1617Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNJA1.1.ER.200214T1617Z.200215T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Marion Junction.
* from Friday morning until further notice...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT 8:00 AM Monday the stage was 31 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 36 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise to 36.6 feet by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 36 feet...Flooding is confined mainly to farm and 
  pasture lands in the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

209 
WGUS84 KBMX 110150
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
750 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020


...The flood warnings continue for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...Centreville...Suttle...and Marion Junction...

.Heavy rainfall from today is causing continued rises along the
Cahaba River, and additonal rainfall of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall 
is expected over the next 24 hours. Therefore, flood warnings 
remain in effect along the Cahaba River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-073-117-111350-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0037.200211T0432Z-200213T1012Z/
/CHGA1.2.ER.200211T0432Z.200211T1800Z.200212T2212Z.UU/
750 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* until late Wednesday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 7:30 PM Monday the stage was 11.9 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 23.7 feet by tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 24 feet...Residential flooding becomes more severe and
  widespread near the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC007-047-105-111350-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0038.200211T0954Z-200214T0251Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200211T0954Z.200212T0600Z.200213T1451Z.NO/
750 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* from late tonight to Thursday evening...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT 7:15 PM Monday the stage was 19.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 28.9 feet by Wednesday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 30 feet...Considerable flooding of farm and pasture 
  lands in the area occurs...and cattle may need to be moved to 
  higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-111350-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.200210T0330Z.200214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
750 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Suttle.
* until further notice...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 7 PM Monday the stage was 28.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 32 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Thursday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 37.7 feet by early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 32 feet...Flooding of pasture lands and low-lying 
  agricultural lands occurs in the Suttle area.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

ALC047-105-111350-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0039.200213T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNJA1.1.ER.200213T2000Z.200214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
750 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Marion Junction.
* from Thursday afternoon until further notice...or until the Warning
  is cancelled.
* AT 7 PM Monday the stage was 30.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 36 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 38.1 feet by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 36 feet...Flooding is confined mainly to farm and 
  pasture lands in the area.
* Impact...At 40 feet...Extensive overflow of farm lands around 
  Marion Junction occurs. Some homes and farms begin to be affected. 

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

291 
WGUS84 KBMX 110850
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
250 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...

.Periods of heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours has led to rises
across the Cahaba River basin. Therefore, a flood warning remains in
effect for the Cahaba River at Centreville, Suttle, Marion Junction,
and near Cahaba Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-073-117-112049-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200213T0115Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.200211T0410Z.200211T1800Z.200212T1315Z.UU/
250 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* until Wednesday evening...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  2:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.6 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning .
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Residential flooding becomes more severe and
  widespread near the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC007-047-105-112049-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200213T2234Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200211T0254Z.200212T0000Z.200213T1034Z.NO/
250 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  2:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.0 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet...Considerable flooding of farm and pasture 
  lands in the area occurs...and cattle may need to be moved to 
  higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-112049-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200216T0835Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.200210T0330Z.200214T1200Z.200215T2035Z.NO/
250 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Suttle.
* until late Saturday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  2:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon  and 
  continue to rise to near 37.2 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Saturday afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

ALC047-105-112049-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0039.200213T0900Z-200216T0912Z/
/MNJA1.1.ER.200213T0900Z.200214T1200Z.200215T2112Z.NO/
250 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Marion Junction.
* from late Wednesday night to late Saturday night...or until the 
  Warning is cancelled.
* AT  2:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 30.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 36.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Thursday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 37.8 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Extensive overflow of farm lands around 
  Marion Junction occurs. Some homes and farms begin to be affected. 

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

043 
WGUS84 KBMX 111509
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
909 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...Centreville...Suttle...And Marion Junction...

.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours continues to produce rises
across the Cahaba River basin. Therefore, a flood warning remains in
effect for the Cahaba River at Centreville, Suttle, Marion Junction,
and near Cahaba Heights. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-073-117-120309-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200212T1920Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.200211T0410Z.200211T1000Z.200212T0720Z.UU/
909 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* until Wednesday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 15.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 14 feet...Minor flooding occurs in the Cahaba Heights 
  area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

ALC007-047-105-120309-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200214T0430Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200211T0254Z.200212T0000Z.200213T1630Z.NO/
909 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until Thursday evening...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 29.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.6 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Thursday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 30 feet...Considerable flooding of farm and pasture 
  lands in the area occurs...and cattle may need to be moved to 
  higher ground. At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-120309-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200216T1951Z/
/SUTA1.1.ER.200210T0330Z.200214T1200Z.200216T0751Z.NO/
909 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River Near Suttle.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 28 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 32 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 38.1 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Sunday morning. At 32 feet...Flooding 
  of pasture lands and low-lying agricultural lands occurs in the 
  Suttle area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8719 3272 8721 3248 8715 3248 8722
          3271 8729 3281 8728         

$$

ALC047-105-120309-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0039.200213T0448Z-200216T2024Z/
/MNJA1.1.ER.200213T0448Z.200214T1200Z.200216T0824Z.NO/
909 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River At Marion Junction.
* from Wednesday evening to Sunday afternoon...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 30.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 36 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and 
  continue to rise to near 38.5 feet by early Friday afternoon. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 36 feet...Flooding is confined mainly to farm and 
  pasture lands in the area. At 15 feet...Flooding around Oakmulgee 
  Creek begins and cattle need to be moved to higher ground. Overflow 
  of pasture lands increases at stages above 20 feet. 

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

034 
WGUS84 KBMX 120212
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
812 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Cahaba River Near Cahaba 
Heights...

.Water levels have now fallen below flood stage along the Cahaba
River at Cahaba Heights and are forecast to continue to fall over
the next few days. Therefore, the flood warning is cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

This will be the last statement issued for this event.

&&

ALC007-073-117-120242-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-200212T1920Z/
/CHGA1.1.ER.200211T0410Z.200211T1000Z.200211T2354Z.UU/
812 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cahaba River Near Cahaba Heights.
* AT 7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.4 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at 5:54 PM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 14 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 3341 8673 3337 8677 3333 8684 3335 8684
          3340 8677 3342 8674         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
553 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0402 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020/

Through Tonight.

High pressure builds into the region today, but first we are going
to have to get rid of the pesky fog in the east. Have increased the
extent of the dense fog advisory to the north and west. The good
news here is that the fog developed quickly enough that temperatures
and dewpoints look to have remained above freezing where the fog has
formed and sliding into. Yes there could still be spots that hit or
fall just below freezing that may see the dense fog, but these
locations are more isolated than widespread so will just be
expanding the dense fog and not issuing a freezing fog advisory.

Once the fog and low clouds burn off in the south and east, we will
be left with variable clouds through the day. Best cloud cover will
be in the west as the next system begins to approach. Overall though
dry conditions expected today and through Midnight. Clouds will be
on the increase tonight in the west, with rain chances entering the
picture after Midnight in the far NW and then near the I-59 corridor
after 3 am. Rain chances really increase as the next system begins
to work toward the area just before sunrise and then slide slowly
south and east. Highs today will be in the upper 50s in the
northeast to upper 60s in the southwest. Lows tonight will be in the
40s east and 50s west.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0402 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020/

Monday through Sunday.

This will be a busy week weather-wise across Central AL. Prolonged
rainfall leads to flooding concerns for Monday and Tuesday. This
transitions to the potential for severe weather Wednesday night into
Thursday, which will bring more rain that could cause more flooding
concerns.

Flooding: Monday and Tuesday

A cold front moves southward and stalls across Central AL early
Monday. Just how far south the cold front pushes will dictate the
specific areas for flooding concerns. Some guidance brings the
frontal boundary as far south as I-20, while some show it stalling
across our far northern counties. Wherever the boundary sets up,
expect prolonged rainfall, with a chance for embedded thunderstorms.
Anamously high PWATs are forecast, which will lead to periods of
heavy rain, especially in any convective cells. A flood watch will
be in effect from 6 AM Monday through 6 PM Tuesday for the
northwestern half of Central AL. Within this area, localized flash
flooding will also be possible, especially if the band of rain sets
up over urban areas.

Tuesday night, the trough to our west is expected to swing through
the Great Plains and develop a low in Southern TX. As this surface
low deepens and lifts northeastward into the ArkLaTex, the stalled
frontal boundary is lifted northward as an effective warm front,
which should offer a brief reprieve from the heaviest rainfall.

Severe Weather: Wednesday into Thursday

As we go through the day on Wednesday, the low continues to lift
northeastward through the Mid-MS Valley and into Western TN, which
places Central AL in the warm sector where we could see some modest
destabilization (400-500 J/Kg SBCAPE) ahead of the next approaching
cold front. I've added mention for the threat of severe weather
Wednesday night into Thursday as the system moves through. Given the
track of the surface low and a 50-60kt low level jet, the 0-6km bulk
shear is an impressive 70-80kt, though the shear vector is largely
parallel to the frontal boundary. Therefore, can't rule out the
potential for a few tornadoes for our area. Of course, there are
uncertainties that muddy the forecast- First, guidance suggests the
surface winds could veer more southwesterly just ahead of the front,
limiting the low level directional shear, which could limit the
tornado threat. Next, while models have come into good agreement on
the evolution and track of the low, the timing is still in question.
The GFS is much more progressive and kicks the front through fairly
quickly, while the Euro is running about 6 hours slower on getting
it through Central AL. For now, the key message should be the
potential for severe weather, including tornadoes, Wednesday
afternoon through the overnight hours. Exact timing and areas of
highest threat will be assessed as higher resolution data becomes
available over the next few days. As the front moves through, I
would expect flash flood guidance to be on the lower end given the
anticipated antecedent conditions, so any additional rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns even if the front is more
progressive.

The front moves south and east of our area by Thursday afternoon,
leading to drier weather for the end of the week. Guidance splits
over the weekend on whether another round of rain moves in, so for
now, I've kept PoPs on the lower side through Sunday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Area of fog and low clouds have moved into EET and impacting most
of the eastern sites. ASN seems to be protected so far, but could
potentially see a brief window this morning. After 15Z conditions
improve with winds up to 10 kts the only concern of the day. May
see some MVFR work in after 9z tomorrow, but the bigger concern
will be the approaching showers and storms. At this time it
appears that the activity will remain west of all sites, except
for TCL. Conditions will deteriorate after 12Z Monday.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Pesky fog will remain in the east this morning through 9 am. High
pressure will build into the region today, but will be short lived.
Showers and storms enter the area after Midnight tonight in the NW
and will continue to be possible through the end of the week. Heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible, especially across the north
and west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  45  63  56  66 /   0  20 100 100  80
Anniston    61  46  66  59  69 /   0  10  90 100  80
Birmingham  63  51  65  59  67 /   0  20 100 100  80
Tuscaloosa  66  53  67  59  67 /   0  30 100 100  80
Calera      64  50  66  60  69 /   0  10  90 100  80
Auburn      61  47  68  60  72 /   0  10  50  70  70
Montgomery  66  49  72  62  75 /   0   0  70  70  70
Troy        66  50  72  62  75 /   0   0  50  60  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Hale...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...
Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tallapoosa.

Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...
Cleburne...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...
Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
912 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-101815-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
912 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Many area rivers are in or expected to rise above flood stage.
Please see the latest river statements for specific details on the
rises and expected crest values.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Many rivers will continue to rise over the next few days. Many have
reached flood stage or will reach flood stage. Please see the latest
river statements for specific details on the rises and expected
crest values.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected Monday through Thursday.
Recent heavy rainfall has produced saturated soil conditions, and
any additional rainfall could produce flash flooding issues.

Severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes is possible
Wednesday afternoon and night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
necessary Monday and Wednesday.