River Flood Warning 34, NWS Birmingham, AL

212 
WGUS84 KBMX 100336
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
936 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...

.A Flood Warning continues at Sayre due to expected rainfall amounts 
between 4 and 6 inches through the day on Tuesday. Additional heavy 
rainfall is possible through the end of this upcoming week which 
will cause water levels to remain elevated or increase further. 
Interests should closely monitor the latest river forecasts through 
the upcoming week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Monday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-101536-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.200211T1318Z-200213T2100Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1318Z.200212T1200Z.200213T0900Z.NO/
936 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* from Tuesday morning to Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT 9 PM Sunday the stage was 13.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Tuesday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 32.7 feet by Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs.
  
&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

481 
WGUS84 KBMX 101414
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
814 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...

.Heavy rainfall of four to five inches is forecast across the Locust 
Fork basin during the next 48 hours...and a flood warning remains in 
effect at Sayre.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-110213-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.200211T1426Z-200213T2100Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1426Z.200212T1200Z.200213T0900Z.NO/
814 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* from Tuesday morning to Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT 7:00 AM Monday the stage was 12.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Tuesday morning  and continue
  to rise to near 32.7 feet by Wednesday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

508 
WGUS84 KBMX 110230
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
830 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...

.Heavy rainfall from today is causing additional rises along the
Locust Fork at Sayre. Additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected 
over the next 24 hours. Therefore, a flood warning remains in effect
at Sayre. Interests should closely monitor the latest river forecasts 
through the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-111428-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.200211T1113Z-200213T2113Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1113Z.200212T1200Z.200213T0913Z.NO/
830 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* from late tonight to Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT 8 PM Monday the stage was 16.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow  and continue 
  to rise to near 32.4 feet by Wednesday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

142 
WGUS84 KBMX 110949
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...

.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours is producing rises along the
Black Warrior River basin.. a flood warning remains in effect for the
the Locust Fork At Sayre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-112148-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.200211T1821Z-200213T1200Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1821Z.200212T0600Z.200213T0000Z.NO/
349 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* from this afternoon to Thursday morning...or until the Warning is 
  cancelled.
* AT  3:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 21.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 27.4 feet by tomorrow morning . The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow evening .


&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

598 
WGUS84 KBMX 111551
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
951 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...
...The flood warning continues for the Black Warrior River At Holt 
Lock and Dam...Oliver Lock and Dam...and Selden Lock and Dam...

.Heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours continues to produce rises
and flooding along the Black Warrior River basin...a flood warning 
remains in effect for the Black Warrior River at Holt Lock and Dam, 
Selden Lock and Dam, Oliver Lock and Dam, and the Locust Fork at Sayre.
Moderate flooding is forecast to occur at Selden Lock and Dam which may
lead to residential flooding in the surrounding area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-120351-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.200211T1707Z-200213T0936Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1707Z.200212T0600Z.200212T2136Z.NO/
951 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* until late Wednesday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  9:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 24.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 27.3 feet by after midnight tonight . The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon .
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

ALC063-065-091-125-120351-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200213T1108Z/
/TCLA1.1.ER.200211T0919Z.200212T0600Z.200212T2308Z.NO/
951 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Holt Lock and Dam.
* until late Wednesday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 142.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 140 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 144 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow afternoon .
* Impact...At 140 feet...Some minor flooding of low-lying areas 
  occurs.  

&&

LAT...LON 3324 8744 3321 8752 3320 8759 3322 8759
          3326 8751 3327 8745         

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-125-120351-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200214T2018Z/
/TODA1.1.ER.200211T0639Z.200212T1200Z.200214T0818Z.NO/
951 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Oliver Lock and Dam.
* until Friday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 133.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 129 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 136.9 feet by 
  tomorrow morning . The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 135 feet...Numerous camphouses and some permanent 
  residences southwest of Tuscaloosa become cutoff.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8759 3308 8756 3277 8782 3281 8789
          3321 8769 3322 8759         

$$

ALC063-065-091-120351-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WLDA1.2.ER.200207T0607Z.200214T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
951 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Selden Lock and Dam.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 100.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 90 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 103.7 feet by 
  early Friday afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 102 feet...Residential flooding begins in the area. 
  Numerous cabins and trailers in Hale and Greene counties become 
  flooded. At 98 feet...Some cabins and trailers along the river 
  begin to flood. At 94 feet...Some secondary roads in the area 
  begin to flood. Flooding of farm and pasture lands continues. At 
  90 feet...Pasture and wood lands begin to flood. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground at stages above 90 feet.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8782 3256 8769 3251 8782 3262 8784
          3273 8790 3281 8789         

$$

665 
WGUS84 KBMX 120305
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
905 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...
...The flood warning continues for the Black Warrior River At Holt
Lock and Dam...Oliver Locak and Dam...and Selden Lock and Dam...

.Heavy rainfall during the past 2 days continues to produce rises
and flooding along the Black Warrior River basin. Flood warnings 
remain in effect for the Black Warrior River at Holt Lock and Dam, 
Selden Lock and Dam, Oliver Lock and Dam, and the Locust Fork at Sayre.
Moderate flooding is forecast to occur at Selden Lock and Dam which may
lead to residential flooding in the surrounding area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-121505-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-200213T1530Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1610Z.200212T0600Z.200213T0330Z.NO/
905 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* until Thursday morning...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 27.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 28 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage 
  late tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

ALC063-065-091-125-121505-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200213T1715Z/
/TCLA1.1.ER.200211T0919Z.200211T1900Z.200213T0515Z.NO/
905 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Holt Lock and Dam.
* until Thursday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 141.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 140 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 142 feet through
  midnight tonight, then begin to fall. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 140 feet...Some minor flooding of low-lying areas 
  occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3324 8744 3321 8752 3320 8759 3322 8759
          3326 8751 3327 8745         

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-125-121505-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200215T1531Z/
/TODA1.1.ER.200211T0639Z.200212T1800Z.200215T0331Z.NO/
905 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Oliver Lock and Dam.
* until Saturday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 135.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 129 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 137.7 feet by 
  tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Friday night.
* Impact...At 135 feet...Numerous camphouses and some permanent 
  residences southwest of Tuscaloosa become cutoff.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8759 3308 8756 3277 8782 3281 8789
          3321 8769 3322 8759         

$$

ALC063-065-091-121505-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WLDA1.2.ER.200207T0607Z.200214T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
905 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Selden Lock and Dam.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 101 feet. 
* Flood stage is 90 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 104.3 feet by 
  early Saturday morning then begin a slow fall.
* Impact...At 102 feet...Residential flooding begins in the area. 
  Numerous cabins and trailers in Hale and Greene counties become flooded. 
* Impact...At 105 feet...Severe residential flooding occurs in the 
  area...and evacuations may become necessary. 

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8782 3256 8769 3251 8782 3262 8784
          3273 8790 3281 8789         

$$

048 
WGUS84 KBMX 121531
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
931 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Black Warrior River At Holt
Lock and Dam...
...The flood warning continues for the Locust Fork At Sayre...
...The flood warning continues for the Black Warrior River At Oliver 
Lock and Dam...
...The flood warning continues for the Black Warrior River At Selden 
Lock and Dam...

.Rises continue along the lower Black Warrior River...but levels 
are now beginning to fall along the upper portions ofthe river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Thursday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-130330-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-200213T1821Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1610Z.200212T0800Z.200213T0621Z.NO/
931 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...T
he Flood Warning continues for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* until Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  9:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 27.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and 
  agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

ALC063-065-091-125-121601-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-200212T1915Z/
/TCLA1.1.ER.200211T0919Z.200211T1900Z.200212T0728Z.NO/
931 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Black Warrior River At Holt Lock and Dam.
* At  8:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 138.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 140 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at  1:28 AM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to the next few days.
* Impact...At 140 feet...Some minor flooding of low-lying areas 
  occurs.  

&&

LAT...LON 3324 8744 3321 8752 3320 8759 3322 8759
          3326 8751 3327 8745         

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-125-130330-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200214T1237Z/
/TODA1.1.ER.200211T0639Z.200212T0015Z.200214T0037Z.NO/
931 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Oliver Lock and Dam.
* until Friday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 133.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 129 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Thursday evening...and then continue to fall the next few days.
* Impact...At 132 feet...Flooding of rural roads southwest of 
  Tuscaloosa occurs. Flooding of lowlands in the area will continue
  the next few days.

&&

LAT...LON 3320 8759 3308 8756 3277 8782 3281 8789
          3321 8769 3322 8759         

$$

ALC063-065-091-130330-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WLDA1.2.ER.200207T0607Z.200214T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black Warrior River At Selden Lock and Dam.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 101.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 90 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 104 feet by 
  Friday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 105 feet...Severe residential flooding occurs in the 
  area...and evacuations may become necessary. Widespread flooding of
  lowlands in the area will continue the next several days.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8782 3256 8769 3251 8782 3262 8784
          3273 8790 3281 8789         

$$

093 
WGUS84 KBMX 130226
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
826 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Locust Fork At Sayre...

.Levels have fallen below flood stage on the Locust Fork at
Sayre. Therefore, the flood warning has been cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

This will be the last statement issued for this event.

&&

ALC073-125-127-130256-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-200213T1821Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.200211T1610Z.200212T0800Z.200213T0138Z.NO/
826 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Locust Fork At Sayre.
* AT 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 24.9 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at 7:38 PM Wednesday.
* Flood stage is 25 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
          3362 8714 3373 8698         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
553 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0402 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020/

Through Tonight.

High pressure builds into the region today, but first we are going
to have to get rid of the pesky fog in the east. Have increased the
extent of the dense fog advisory to the north and west. The good
news here is that the fog developed quickly enough that temperatures
and dewpoints look to have remained above freezing where the fog has
formed and sliding into. Yes there could still be spots that hit or
fall just below freezing that may see the dense fog, but these
locations are more isolated than widespread so will just be
expanding the dense fog and not issuing a freezing fog advisory.

Once the fog and low clouds burn off in the south and east, we will
be left with variable clouds through the day. Best cloud cover will
be in the west as the next system begins to approach. Overall though
dry conditions expected today and through Midnight. Clouds will be
on the increase tonight in the west, with rain chances entering the
picture after Midnight in the far NW and then near the I-59 corridor
after 3 am. Rain chances really increase as the next system begins
to work toward the area just before sunrise and then slide slowly
south and east. Highs today will be in the upper 50s in the
northeast to upper 60s in the southwest. Lows tonight will be in the
40s east and 50s west.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0402 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020/

Monday through Sunday.

This will be a busy week weather-wise across Central AL. Prolonged
rainfall leads to flooding concerns for Monday and Tuesday. This
transitions to the potential for severe weather Wednesday night into
Thursday, which will bring more rain that could cause more flooding
concerns.

Flooding: Monday and Tuesday

A cold front moves southward and stalls across Central AL early
Monday. Just how far south the cold front pushes will dictate the
specific areas for flooding concerns. Some guidance brings the
frontal boundary as far south as I-20, while some show it stalling
across our far northern counties. Wherever the boundary sets up,
expect prolonged rainfall, with a chance for embedded thunderstorms.
Anamously high PWATs are forecast, which will lead to periods of
heavy rain, especially in any convective cells. A flood watch will
be in effect from 6 AM Monday through 6 PM Tuesday for the
northwestern half of Central AL. Within this area, localized flash
flooding will also be possible, especially if the band of rain sets
up over urban areas.

Tuesday night, the trough to our west is expected to swing through
the Great Plains and develop a low in Southern TX. As this surface
low deepens and lifts northeastward into the ArkLaTex, the stalled
frontal boundary is lifted northward as an effective warm front,
which should offer a brief reprieve from the heaviest rainfall.

Severe Weather: Wednesday into Thursday

As we go through the day on Wednesday, the low continues to lift
northeastward through the Mid-MS Valley and into Western TN, which
places Central AL in the warm sector where we could see some modest
destabilization (400-500 J/Kg SBCAPE) ahead of the next approaching
cold front. I've added mention for the threat of severe weather
Wednesday night into Thursday as the system moves through. Given the
track of the surface low and a 50-60kt low level jet, the 0-6km bulk
shear is an impressive 70-80kt, though the shear vector is largely
parallel to the frontal boundary. Therefore, can't rule out the
potential for a few tornadoes for our area. Of course, there are
uncertainties that muddy the forecast- First, guidance suggests the
surface winds could veer more southwesterly just ahead of the front,
limiting the low level directional shear, which could limit the
tornado threat. Next, while models have come into good agreement on
the evolution and track of the low, the timing is still in question.
The GFS is much more progressive and kicks the front through fairly
quickly, while the Euro is running about 6 hours slower on getting
it through Central AL. For now, the key message should be the
potential for severe weather, including tornadoes, Wednesday
afternoon through the overnight hours. Exact timing and areas of
highest threat will be assessed as higher resolution data becomes
available over the next few days. As the front moves through, I
would expect flash flood guidance to be on the lower end given the
anticipated antecedent conditions, so any additional rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding concerns even if the front is more
progressive.

The front moves south and east of our area by Thursday afternoon,
leading to drier weather for the end of the week. Guidance splits
over the weekend on whether another round of rain moves in, so for
now, I've kept PoPs on the lower side through Sunday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Area of fog and low clouds have moved into EET and impacting most
of the eastern sites. ASN seems to be protected so far, but could
potentially see a brief window this morning. After 15Z conditions
improve with winds up to 10 kts the only concern of the day. May
see some MVFR work in after 9z tomorrow, but the bigger concern
will be the approaching showers and storms. At this time it
appears that the activity will remain west of all sites, except
for TCL. Conditions will deteriorate after 12Z Monday.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Pesky fog will remain in the east this morning through 9 am. High
pressure will build into the region today, but will be short lived.
Showers and storms enter the area after Midnight tonight in the NW
and will continue to be possible through the end of the week. Heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible, especially across the north
and west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  45  63  56  66 /   0  20 100 100  80
Anniston    61  46  66  59  69 /   0  10  90 100  80
Birmingham  63  51  65  59  67 /   0  20 100 100  80
Tuscaloosa  66  53  67  59  67 /   0  30 100 100  80
Calera      64  50  66  60  69 /   0  10  90 100  80
Auburn      61  47  68  60  72 /   0  10  50  70  70
Montgomery  66  49  72  62  75 /   0   0  70  70  70
Troy        66  50  72  62  75 /   0   0  50  60  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Hale...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...
Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Tallapoosa.

Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
the following counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...
Cleburne...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...
Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
912 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-101815-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
912 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Many area rivers are in or expected to rise above flood stage.
Please see the latest river statements for specific details on the
rises and expected crest values.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Many rivers will continue to rise over the next few days. Many have
reached flood stage or will reach flood stage. Please see the latest
river statements for specific details on the rises and expected
crest values.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected Monday through Thursday.
Recent heavy rainfall has produced saturated soil conditions, and
any additional rainfall could produce flash flooding issues.

Severe weather with damaging winds and tornadoes is possible
Wednesday afternoon and night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
necessary Monday and Wednesday.