River Flood Warning 26, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
820 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0812 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020/

Synoptic scale... Deep longwave trough extends from over
Minnesota southwest across the Plains states and into Texas. A
surface cold front extended from southeast Kentucky south to near
Mobile AL.

Mesoscale...
Local objective analysis data depicts an elongated trough of low
pressure around 996 mb near Chattanooga TN that extended southwest
roughly along the I-59 corridor into our eastern. Dew point
readings are in the mid to upper 60's near and southeast of this
feature. Higher aloft, A stout low level jet was depicted around
850 mb in local modeling with speeds from 60-65 kts with a
maximum over far southeast Alabama.

Mesoanalysis data indicates Mixed-Layer convective available
potential energy (ML CAPE) values range from 900 to 1400 from
Montgomery to Alexander City and points southeast. It will be in
this area of our far east, south-central and southeast where the
potential for severe storms will be greatest through noon today.
Limited subsidence/capping aloft is permitting showers to freely
develop in the unstable environment and that is a limiting factor
for instability. However, robust wind shear and increased
dynamical forcing aloft is being experienced that will encourage
further convective development and sustainment.

Forecast...
As the longwave trough becomes more neutral tilted from positive
tilt, expect continued enhancement in convective potential through
late morning. Sufficient warm air and positive moisture advection
from the south will continue to promote further increases and
temperature and dew point values in the lower levels. As a result,
instability values are expected to further increase with ML CAPE
values from 1200 to 1800 J/Kg by late morning southeast. The
proximity to the surface low to the north is creating a maxima in
low-level storm relative helicity (SRH) values generally from
200-400 m2/s2 across our east, south-central and southeast
counties.

Thunderstorms will remain possible within 100 miles of the leading
edge of the convection as it continues moving further east with
lingering rain showers expected through the afternoon hours.
Clouds will persist with increasing cold advection from northwest
to southeast across the area through this evening.

05

Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0400 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020/

Through Tonight...

Rain will be ending from west to east through the night. Cold air
will begin to work into the region overnight and in place by
sunrise. While we expect mainly light rain if any precipitation
can actually reach the surface, we can not rule out a few snow
flurries to mix in at time after 3 am and possible through Friday
morning across the north. Any frozen accumulation is not expected
as temperatures will generally still be above freezing through the
period.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0400 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020/

Friday through Through Wednesday.

Colder and dry on Friday with the wrap around cloud cover from
the upper level system moving through. After sunrise and flurries
should be in the northeast, with no impacts expected. The next
system will move quickly into the region on Saturday and bring a
chance of rain by the afternoon and into the evening hours. This
system moves out and then the next system moves in Monday morning
from the west as a front, but will stall out by Tuesday morning
across the north, before lifting slowly northward on Tuesday.
Models are indicating that this front may sit across the north for
several days and may become a flooding issue here. We may see a
brief reprieve on Wednesday, with only isolated to scattered
showers as the system refocuses its energy to our north and west
as the next trough begins to approach the area. Could potentially
see another round of strong to severe storms next Wednesday night
into the Thursday, but confidence and overall progression of the
system is too low to include at this time. Much more on this as
the system draws closer. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s through
the weekend and then the 40s and 50s by Monday and Tuesday. Highs
will be in the 50s to low 60s through the weekend and then the 60s
and 70s by Tuesday.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

The rain shield has not really moved much over the past 6 hours.
MGM and TOI will finally get their continuous rain and storms
within the next 1 to 2 hours and conditions will deteriorate
there. Showers and storms will eventually switch to just rain in
the next few hours at TCL and then by 18z across the rest of the
north. By 21z the thunderstorms should be done at MGM and TOI.
Isolated to scattered light rain may continue through sunrise at
most sites. Snow flurries can not be ruled out for ANB and ASN
Friday morning, but will have no impacts.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorms will continue through the morning while
sliding south and east. Severe storms will remain possible int he
southeast through mid morning. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall
will result in some areas of flooding. Rain showers remain possible
through the evening with decreasing coverage overnight. Another
system will bring more rain chances to the area Saturday afternoon
and evening. With the wet weather forecast, expect relative humidity
values to remain elevated through at least Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  35  47  33  54 / 100  50  10  10  30
Anniston    66  36  48  34  58 / 100  60  10  10  30
Birmingham  62  37  49  37  56 / 100  40  10  10  40
Tuscaloosa  58  37  53  38  59 /  90  40   0  10  30
Calera      64  36  50  36  59 / 100  40  10  10  30
Auburn      65  39  49  35  59 / 100  80  10   0  30
Montgomery  68  38  53  37  62 / 100  50   0   0  30
Troy        72  39  53  36  62 / 100  60   0   0  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Pike...
Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
805 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-071715-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
805 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and quarter size
hail through noon, mainly east of a line from near Selma to near
Anniston. The potential for flooding of roadways and creeks due to
continued rainfall exists east of a line from Blountsville to
Tuscaloosa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Water rises are expected on Catoma Creek as well as the Tombigbee
and Black Warrior River basins. Minor river flooding is forecast to
occur by Friday and last into early next week for some locations.
Please refer to river statements for specific details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is requested
through Thursday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
619 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALZ019-021-027>029-061245-
Calhoun AL-Clay AL-Talladega AL-Randolph AL-Cleburne AL-
619 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLADEGA...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...CLEBURNE AND EASTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CST...

At 619 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Anniston to near Ashland. Movement was
northeast at 65 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Anniston, Oxford, Heflin, Lineville, Ashland, Cobb Town, West
End-Cobb Town, Munford, Hobson City, Ranburne, Fruithurst,
Edwardsville, Morrison Cross Roads, Barfield, Anniston Regional
Airport, Muscadine, Abernathy, Fosters Cross Roads, Oxford Lake and
Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3315 8599 3362 8592 3396 8543 3396 8541
      3393 8539 3344 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 219DEG 56KT 3365 8582 3323 8585

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
705 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALZ036-037-041-043-061330-
Tallapoosa AL-Autauga AL-Coosa AL-Elmore AL-
705 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN AUTAUGA...ELMORE...
WESTERN TALLAPOOSA AND EASTERN COOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CST...

At 704 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Crewsville to near Prattville. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Prattville, Alexander City, Millbrook, Wetumpka, Tallassee,
Dadeville, Goodwater, Rockford, Kellyton, Equality, Elmore, Coosada,
Deatsville, Eclectic, Jacksons' Gap, New Site, Goldville, Martin Dam,
Bradford and Santuck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8595 3245 8620 3250 8625 3247 8629
      3249 8631 3246 8631 3246 8661 3271 8645
      3271 8642 3275 8641 3276 8638 3277 8640
      3310 8618 3311 8601 3309 8601 3309 8598
      3311 8597 3311 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1304Z 224DEG 33KT 3297 8613 3252 8648

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
731 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ALZ028-029-036>038-061415-
Tallapoosa AL-Clay AL-Coosa AL-Randolph AL-Chambers AL-
731 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...
TALLAPOOSA...NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...EASTERN COOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CST...

At 731 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Goldville to near Highway 9 and Highway
22. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexander City, Dadeville, Goodwater, Kellyton, Jacksons' Gap, New
Site, Wadley, Goldville, Malone, Bradford, Cottage Grove, Abanda,
Hatchet, Nixburg, Trammel Crossroads, Ridge Grove, Hillabee Creek,
Eastern Lake Martin, Northern Lake Martin and Highway 9 and Highway
22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 8542 3285 8545 3276 8622 3311 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 241DEG 39KT 3314 8584 3283 8603

89^GSatterwhite

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
737 AM CST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLOOD            3 WNW BARFIELD          33.37N 85.77W
02/06/2020                   CLAY               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ALONG HWY 49 AT STATE LAKE ROAD.

&&

14

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