Wind Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

287 
WWAK72 PAFG 302242
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

AKZ227-011730-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201002T0200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
242 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds gusting to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near the Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Southeast winds will increase this evening,
  with gusts to 65 mph developing tonight and continuing through
  Thursday afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease to Thursday
  evening. Southeast winds are expected to increase again on 
  Friday with gusts of 80 mph possible Friday afternoon through 
  Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

271 
WWAK72 PAFG 012248
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AKZ227-021700-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201003T2200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AKDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 50 mph gusting to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near the Alaska Range, including Farewell Lake.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds are expected to decrease to this
  evening. Southeast winds are expected to increase again on
  Friday with gusts of 70 mph possible Friday afternoon through 
  Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

622 
WWAK72 PAFG 021237
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
437 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

AKZ227-030200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201003T2200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
437 AM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AKDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with local gusts to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near the Alaska Range, including Farewell Lake.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will rapidly increase this morning,
  peaking this evening and overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

255 
WWAK72 PAFG 022200
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

AKZ227-031500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201003T2200Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
200 PM AKDT Fri Oct 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AKDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with local gusts to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near the Alaska Range, including Farewell Lake.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will rapidly increase this morning, 
  peaking this evening and overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

215 
WWAK72 PAFG 031034
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

AKZ227-032000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201003T2000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
234 AM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with local gusts to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near the Alaska Range, including Farewell Lake.

* WHEN...Until noon AKDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southeasterly winds will continue
  this morning before diminishing around noon today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

566 
WWAK72 PAFG 032000
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1200 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

AKZ227-032100-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-201003T2000Z/
Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, 
and Farewell Lake
1200 PM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKDT TODAY...

Winds will continue to diminish through this afternoon.


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska will be entering a southerly flow pattern tonight
that will continue into the weekend. This will cause a warm up to
well above normal by Wed in all of Northern AK that will continue
into the weekend. Expect periods of moderate to possibly strong
chinook winds across the Alaska Range, along with windy
conditions in other areas, from Wed into the weekend. Expect
periods of rain over the West Coast and North Slope/Northern
Interior from Wed into the weekend with a chance of snow north of
from the Brooks Range north.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude trough from the
Chukchi Sea south over Western Alaska and into the Wrn Gulf of
Alaska, and a high amplitude ridge extending from the WRN CONUS
and Wrn Canada north over Ern Alaska. A series of very strong
short wave troughs will make their way north out of the long wave
to the SE Bering Sea this week. This will cause the long wave
trough and ridge pattern to retrograde over the next several
days, and cause a moderate to strong southerly flow aloft over
Alaska from Wed night through Sat AM. This will bring the warm and
windy conditions to Northern Alaska Wed through Sat.

The long wave trough will progress east over Alaska next week
bringing a cooler and wetter pattern, more similar to normal, next
week.

850 mb temperatures range from +2C over the SE Interior to -4C
along the West Coast and Arctic Coast. Temps warm to above 0C for
all of of Alaska by Wed PM with temps near +8C over the Southern
Interior, then remain warm through the weekend.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Thu. This is causing light east winds, stratus and fog
along the Arctic Coast that will persist into Thu, but the winds
will increase as weather fronts approach from the south.

A weak weather front over the Northern Interior of Alaska will
dissipate along the Brooks Range early Wed. This has mid-level
clouds, and isolated rain showers that will taper off on early
Wed.

A strong low south of Kodiak will move north into Bristol Bay on
Wed, and to Nunivak Island as a 990 mb low by 4pm Thu, then move
west and dissipate. A warm front extending east from this low will
move along the Alaska Range by 4am Wed, to Anvik to Tanana and
Eagle by 4pm Wed, to the YK Delta to Nome to Ft Yukon by 4am Thu,
and to Gambell to Point Hope to Barter Island by 4pm Thu, then
moving north and west of the Arctic and West coasts and weakening
Thu night. Expect east to northeast winds 15-30 mph ahead of this
front over the Interior and West Coast from late tonight through
Wed night, and east winds 25-35 mph along the Arctic Coast on Wed
night and Thu. Expect a chance of rain with the front along the
West Coast/SW Interior and Northern Interior Wed and Thu, with
rain more likely over Norton Sound and the South Slopes of the
Brooks Range Wed night and Thu. This will bring a chance of rain
and snow to the North Slope Thu. Winds will decrease southeast of
the front.

Weak chinook winds over the Alaska Range will increase to moderate
on Wed night and Thu. This will cause warming and drying over the
Southern Interior and cause little if any rain to hit the ground
Wed-Thu. Could see south winds gust 50-60 mph through Alaska Range
Pass, and 40-50 mph near Delta Junction Wed night.

A second strong low will move north into Bristol Bay on Fri and to
the YK Delta on Sat. This will bring another round of moderate to
strong chinook winds across the Alaska Range late Fri into Sat,
along with areas of rain to the West Coast/Western Interior late
Fri into Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. Models show similar solutions aloft
through 4am Thu. After that time, the ECMF differ from other
models in deepening the low aloft over the Bering Sea much more
than GFS/NAM and Canadian models on Thu and Fri. The ECMF is also
faster than the other models in bringing the next low aloft over
SW Alaska Thu night and Fri. Since there does not appear to be a
significant injection of energy into the Bering low on Thu and
Fri, the deepening shown by the ECMF does not seem as likely as
the GFS/NAM and Canadian solutions. Will use a blend of the
GFS/NAM and Canadians solutions aloft through Fri.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4am
Thu, then differ slightly. Models miss areas of light isolated to
scattered showers now occuring in the southern Interior, NW
Alaska, and the North Slope. Will use a blend of models through
4am Thu but accounting for areas of current precip in the Southern
Interior, NW Alaska and North Slope for today. Will use a blend
of the GFS and NAM precip for into Fri.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verify well. Models show similar
solutions through 4AM Thu, then differ with next low moving into
SW Alaska Thu night and Fri. Will use a blend of models at the
surface through 4am Thu, then use a blend of the NAM/GFS and
Canadian at the surface for Thu and Fri to reflect the preference
for those models aloft.

Bottom line for models, we will use a blend of models for precip,
temps, winds through 4am Thu, then use a blend of the NAM and GFS
for Thu into Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Offshore winds causing below normal sea levels Fri and Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers steady or slowly falling.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 20