Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

138 
WWAK73 PAFG 301427
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

AKZ223-010000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.200930T1427Z-201002T0000Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
627 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
  Winds will become southerly this afternoon.

* WHERE...Near Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ219-010000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.200930T1800Z-201001T1400Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including the cities of Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, 
Caribou Mountain, and Gobblers Knob
627 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 AM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Along the Dalton Highway.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-010000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.200930T2100Z-201002T0300Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
627 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near Alaska Range passes.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-010000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.201001T0300Z-201002T0300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
627 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

784 
WWAK73 PAFG 302237
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

AKZ225-011500-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201002T0300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.201001T0300Z-201001T2100Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
237 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM AKDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Alaska Range passes.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds will increase rapidly this
  evening, with gusts to 65 mph developing tonight and continuing
  through Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decrease to
  Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again 
  on Friday with gusts of 70 mph possible Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ219-010800-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including the cities of Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, 
Caribou Mountain, and Gobblers Knob
237 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  expected.

* WHAT...East winds gusting to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Along the Dalton Highway.

* WHEN...Until midnight AKDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will decrease late tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ223-011500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
237 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds gusting to 55 mph occuring. Winds will become
  southerly this evening. 

* WHERE...Near Delta Junction.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...East winds gusting to 55 will turn south
  this evening then continue through Thursday morning. Winds will
  decrease Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to 
  increase again on Friday with gusts to 60 mph possible Friday 
  afternoon through Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-011500-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.201001T0300Z-201001T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
237 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds gusting to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Near Alaska Range Passes.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds will increase rapidly this
  evening, with gusts to 65 mph developing tonight and continuing
  through Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decrease to
  Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again 
  on Friday with gusts of 70 mph possible Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

393 
WWAK73 PAFG 010558
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
958 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

AKZ219-010700-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Including the cities of Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, 
Caribou Mountain, and Gobblers Knob
958 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ223-011400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
958 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...East winds gusting to 55 will turn south
  this evening then continue through Thursday morning. Winds will
  decrease Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to 
  increase again on Friday with gusts to 60 mph possible Friday 
  afternoon through Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-011400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
958 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Denali.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds will increase rapidly this
  evening, with gusts to 65 mph developing tonight and continuing
  through Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decrease to
  Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again 
  on Friday with gusts of 70 mph possible Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-011400-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
958 PM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds will increase rapidly this
  evening, with gusts to 65 mph developing tonight and continuing
  through Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decrease to
  Thursday afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again 
  on Friday with gusts of 70 mph possible Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

126 
WWAK73 PAFG 011050
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AKZ223-012100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
250 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT This Afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...East winds gusting to 55 will continue
  through early this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease
  this afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again on
  Friday with gusts to 70 mph possible late Friday morning  
  through Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ225-012100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
250 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Denali.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT This Afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds gusting to 60 mph will continue
  early this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease this
  afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again on Friday
  with gusts of 75 mph possible late Friday morning through 
  Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

AKZ226-012100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
250 AM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM AKDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds gusting to 65 mph will continue
  through early this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease
  this afternoon. South winds are expected to increase again on
  Friday with gusts of 75 mph possible late Friday morning  
  through Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

076 
WWAK73 PAFG 012041
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AKZ225-012145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
1241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria and will continue to
gradually diminish through this evening. South winds are expected
to increase again on Friday with gusts of 75 mph possible late 
Friday morning through Saturday morning.

$$

AKZ223-012145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
1241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria and will continue to
gradually diminish through this evening. South winds are expected
to increase again on Friday with gusts to 70 mph possible late 
Friday morning through Saturday morning. 

$$

AKZ226-012300-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2300Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1241 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...South winds gusting to 60 mph will continue
  through this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease this
  evening. South winds are expected to increase again on Friday 
  with gusts of 75 mph possible late Friday morning through 
  Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
CULVER

105 
WWAK73 PAFG 012248
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AKZ226-021715-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-201001T2300Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0005.201002T1500Z-201003T2100Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, 
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM AKDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 1 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will gradually diminish this evening,
  then rapidly increase Friday morning, peaking Friday evening and
  overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ223-021715-
/O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0005.201002T1700Z-201003T1800Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, 
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM AKDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delta Junction and south.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will gradually diminish this 
  evening, then rapidly increase Friday morning, peaking Friday 
  evening and overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ225-021715-
/O.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0005.201002T1500Z-201003T1500Z/
Denali-
Including the cities of Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek,
and Kantishna
248 PM AKDT Thu Oct 1 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM AKDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Denali near the passes.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds will gradually diminish this 
  evening, then rapidly increase Friday morning, peaking Friday 
  evening and overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska will be entering a southerly flow pattern tonight
that will continue into the weekend. This will cause a warm up to
well above normal by Wed in all of Northern AK that will continue
into the weekend. Expect periods of moderate to possibly strong
chinook winds across the Alaska Range, along with windy
conditions in other areas, from Wed into the weekend. Expect
periods of rain over the West Coast and North Slope/Northern
Interior from Wed into the weekend with a chance of snow north of
from the Brooks Range north.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a high amplitude trough from the
Chukchi Sea south over Western Alaska and into the Wrn Gulf of
Alaska, and a high amplitude ridge extending from the WRN CONUS
and Wrn Canada north over Ern Alaska. A series of very strong
short wave troughs will make their way north out of the long wave
to the SE Bering Sea this week. This will cause the long wave
trough and ridge pattern to retrograde over the next several
days, and cause a moderate to strong southerly flow aloft over
Alaska from Wed night through Sat AM. This will bring the warm and
windy conditions to Northern Alaska Wed through Sat.

The long wave trough will progress east over Alaska next week
bringing a cooler and wetter pattern, more similar to normal, next
week.

850 mb temperatures range from +2C over the SE Interior to -4C
along the West Coast and Arctic Coast. Temps warm to above 0C for
all of of Alaska by Wed PM with temps near +8C over the Southern
Interior, then remain warm through the weekend.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist
through Thu. This is causing light east winds, stratus and fog
along the Arctic Coast that will persist into Thu, but the winds
will increase as weather fronts approach from the south.

A weak weather front over the Northern Interior of Alaska will
dissipate along the Brooks Range early Wed. This has mid-level
clouds, and isolated rain showers that will taper off on early
Wed.

A strong low south of Kodiak will move north into Bristol Bay on
Wed, and to Nunivak Island as a 990 mb low by 4pm Thu, then move
west and dissipate. A warm front extending east from this low will
move along the Alaska Range by 4am Wed, to Anvik to Tanana and
Eagle by 4pm Wed, to the YK Delta to Nome to Ft Yukon by 4am Thu,
and to Gambell to Point Hope to Barter Island by 4pm Thu, then
moving north and west of the Arctic and West coasts and weakening
Thu night. Expect east to northeast winds 15-30 mph ahead of this
front over the Interior and West Coast from late tonight through
Wed night, and east winds 25-35 mph along the Arctic Coast on Wed
night and Thu. Expect a chance of rain with the front along the
West Coast/SW Interior and Northern Interior Wed and Thu, with
rain more likely over Norton Sound and the South Slopes of the
Brooks Range Wed night and Thu. This will bring a chance of rain
and snow to the North Slope Thu. Winds will decrease southeast of
the front.

Weak chinook winds over the Alaska Range will increase to moderate
on Wed night and Thu. This will cause warming and drying over the
Southern Interior and cause little if any rain to hit the ground
Wed-Thu. Could see south winds gust 50-60 mph through Alaska Range
Pass, and 40-50 mph near Delta Junction Wed night.

A second strong low will move north into Bristol Bay on Fri and to
the YK Delta on Sat. This will bring another round of moderate to
strong chinook winds across the Alaska Range late Fri into Sat,
along with areas of rain to the West Coast/Western Interior late
Fri into Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft. Models show similar solutions aloft
through 4am Thu. After that time, the ECMF differ from other
models in deepening the low aloft over the Bering Sea much more
than GFS/NAM and Canadian models on Thu and Fri. The ECMF is also
faster than the other models in bringing the next low aloft over
SW Alaska Thu night and Fri. Since there does not appear to be a
significant injection of energy into the Bering low on Thu and
Fri, the deepening shown by the ECMF does not seem as likely as
the GFS/NAM and Canadian solutions. Will use a blend of the
GFS/NAM and Canadians solutions aloft through Fri.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 4am
Thu, then differ slightly. Models miss areas of light isolated to
scattered showers now occuring in the southern Interior, NW
Alaska, and the North Slope. Will use a blend of models through
4am Thu but accounting for areas of current precip in the Southern
Interior, NW Alaska and North Slope for today. Will use a blend
of the GFS and NAM precip for into Fri.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verify well. Models show similar
solutions through 4AM Thu, then differ with next low moving into
SW Alaska Thu night and Fri. Will use a blend of models at the
surface through 4am Thu, then use a blend of the NAM/GFS and
Canadian at the surface for Thu and Fri to reflect the preference
for those models aloft.

Bottom line for models, we will use a blend of models for precip,
temps, winds through 4am Thu, then use a blend of the NAM and GFS
for Thu into Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Offshore winds causing below normal sea levels Fri and Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers steady or slowly falling.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 20